Ever a Friend

[shanahan]

can anyone offer a logical thought on how this horse wins the race yesterday?  Could it be anything other than the jocks watching war monger for a move?  I am barely over watching Lethal Heat nose me for the pick 3, then this crap?

[firmturf]

That was the first time I played California in a long ling time yesterday.

My bet of the day was the Walsh runner down the hill. To get nosed out like that killed me. By a Barry Abrams firster?

Then the Kilroe?!?

Then of course Frankel has to run 3rd in the Big Cap to kill my Trifecta.

I\'m done with California again.

And no, I can offer no logical explanation other then it was in California.

[miff]

Shan,

Mike Mitchell has done this before. Forget about watching War Monger,this horse ran away from them the last eighth in a very fast split.Performance defies any logic.


Mike

[belmont3]

We all suffer tough beats.

But let me defend Cal racing for a moment (with the realization that these comments may fall on deaf ears).

I don\'t have the sheets handy from yesterday but from memory--

Ever a Friend---first off Mitchell claim ran a 2 and change. Plenty good enough to win this race with a pair up. At those odds, not only had to be used but was probably the standout play in that race.

Lethal Heat---Abrams 1ster out of the now legendary (at least to my bankroll) Unusual Heat sire---(Cal sire with well noted success on turf) There was actually another firster by UH in this race. For me, at least, they always must be used first time over the lawn. Again, at the price......to me, it had to be used.

Consider this as well (if you follow Cal every day as I do)---Abrams recent record:
24th--1 entry --3rd
25th--1 entry --1st---$6.80
27th  1 entry   3rd
28th--2 entries-1st---$13.80
                1st---$12.80
29th  0 entries
1st---3rd race--1st---$9.20

Prior to lethal heat---6 starts with 4 wins and 2 thirds and pretty fair mutuals
LH makes it 7 starts 5 wins and 2 3rds.

Kick in the fact that Pappaprodamou (who seldon wins) put over Unusual Jail (another UH sired turfer) at 19.80 mutuel...


Then the Big Cap --extremely formful. ROTW analysis was pretty spot on..I think I may have like the 12 better than ROTW but Heatseeker was clearly top choice.

Keep in mind, since SA reopened after the resurfacing, restructuring of the track----there has been a well reported bias towards closing type horses on the dirt. (yeah I know on the rubber, cushion, poly...lol....but I still call it dirt)  So much so, that frontrunners are taking back if they can (Monterrey Jazz can\'t as Dollase said)--and slowing the fractions (I think the 1st race went in 49 and change to the 1/2.
This bias (to me it is a pronounced bias) ---certainly enhances the chances of Heatseeker and Go Between.

No argument on the last 2 races of the Big Cap card as they too were pretty formful.

Again, I understand bad beats (all too well) --and venting frustration---but I think that Cal racing is just as formful (maybe more so) than other venues.
Maybe it doesn\'t appear that way to an occasional player but, from my vantage point as an almost \'exclusive\' Cal racing player---it is playing as I would expect.

Bob

[shanahan]

Bob, thanks for this...very insightful and helpful.

[Frank]

Strictly from memory as my yesterday TG\'s have long been sent to the recycle bin, Ever a Friend comes of a 2 and a fraction making him plenty fast enough to win this race. He was the lightweight in the race making him an even better bet. For those that cough up a few bucks for Harrington\'s workout stuff, the horse comes in off a pair of A- works, huge works on his scale. One of them a 3/4 work with an extremely strong gallop out for a mile in 36 or so. Ever a Friend was not only a logical performance, he was a key bet at the price.

[marcus]

i agree , the horse really had yet to prove failure at the distance - i\'m chalking it up as lessons learned  ...

[Silver Charm]

I got caught up in the War Monger hype. Hell I may have been a part of the War Monger hype.

Ever a Friend looked better than his odds, the stretch out was a little question but Mike Milkshake can get some stamina into em as good as anybody.

Speaking of Milkshake Mitchell he seems to be the only guy maintaining the standard 24% and up winning percentage we were used to see all over the place about 3-4 years ago. This also includes Gulfstream where a solid win percentage is now about 17%-18% and Pletchers horse are stopping at the 8th pole like we have never seen before.

Look at some of the percentages of the rest of\'em at SA. You know who the usual suspects were back then.

Mitchells day is coming..............

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You have a fellow handicapper doing his best to swear off a venue and no one is willing to give him support?

Do you all want his handle in the pools so badly that no one has any human decency?

Firmturf I support you fully in your decision to forego any surface you wish and applaud your decision to remove Santa Anita from your wagering portfolio. My personal belief is that the stew of variables there is so chaotic that confident wagers are not possible. My preference is to watch the big races there and get involved when those same horses move to dirt. You know their best Plastic number. You can project their best Legitimate number.

As far as the Kilroe Mile being formful, I\'ll leave that to those that like false pace and blocked paths.

Plech is in a bit of a skid. His overall strike rate is still good but lately (Since the Congressional Hearings?) he seems to be more \"careful\"?



Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got caught up in the War Monger hype. Hell I may
> have been a part of the War Monger hype.
>
> Ever a Friend looked better than his odds, the
> stretch out was a little question but Mike
> Milkshake can get some stamina into em as good as
> anybody.
>
> Speaking of Milkshake Mitchell he seems to be the
> only guy maintaining the standard 24% and up
> winning percentage we were used to see all over
> the place about 3-4 years ago. This also includes
> Gulfstream where a solid win percentage is now
> about 17%-18% and Pletchers horse are stopping at
> the 8th pole like we have never seen before.
>
> Look at some of the percentages of the rest of\'em
> at SA. You know who the usual suspects were back
> then.
>
> Mitchells day is coming..............

[firmturf]

I hope I was not coming off as a California hater. I only have time to keep my eyes on my home circuit then a few others throughout the year. California did not make my list. For those that play it I wish them well.

[miff]

Frank,as I saw it, Ever A Friend looked very tough going in.

1.He got beat bad two starts backs in a opt 62.5k claimer(i bet him) he was totally empty.

2. He got a wide fig in a SPRINT in his last beating very little.

3. His one race at a mile was his worst race ever

4.His fig was relevant if this was a sprint,imo.

5.He was up against a field of proven graded stake winners( at the distance) got very little weight from all,and has the worst post.


I get the work report from Harrington and it was brilliant.I think the unknown Mitchell factor is the only way to explain the manner in which this heretofore common horse ran off like a choice in a Breeders Cup event.Nice pick, I was three deep there and did not use or consider him.


Mike

[shanahan]

I, too, was 3 deep - without him OR War Monger - and good works or not - it\'s hard to stomach that one (especially right after the Abrams first-timer).

[EJXD2]

I graded Ever a Friend my third selection in this race with War Monger a complete toss at the price. Unfortunately, I didn\'t use Artiste Royal in the two spot.

Anyway, Ever a Friend was clearly fast enough at shorter distances, so if he handled a mile then he would be right there. The price was right. I\'m really disappointed I didn\'t capitalize.

EdD


shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> can anyone offer a logical thought on how this
> horse wins the race yesterday?  Could it be
> anything other than the jocks watching war monger
> for a move?  I am barely over watching Lethal Heat
> nose me for the pick 3, then this crap?

[Lost Cause]

I caught the pick 4 in here on one of my \"saver\" tickets..The only way I had Ever a Friend in this one was because I played all in this leg of that ticket, I would never had actually chose Ever a Friend to win the race, tough horse to handicap at least for me it was..I was lucky enough to single Heat seeker in the 9th  and the 6 horse in the 11th race to keep the amount manageable, with 4 horses in the 10th...