T'Graphers - a little help

[hossgnat]

I\'m well invested in Denis of Cork in the Derby futures.  Seems that Carroll is opting to skip the Rebel and instead target the Wood for his next start, citing Thoro-Graph figures as a central factor in the decision.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44021

I\'m hardly an expert on your numbers.  What do you make of this move?  Sound logic or an indication of a possibly unsound or too fragile colt?  Shall I plan on using my future bet tickets to line the bird cage?

[TGJB]

I\'m glad they spelled Thoro-Graph right. And I also would give him the extra time off the big top, and only run him once before the Derby.

To put it differently, if he ran twice, what two figures would you like to see on his sheet going into the Derby?

[Michael D.]

\'0\' ??

OUCH!!

this has been my horse, and I am invested as well.

his 7f race at CD was excellent, with a huge closing fraction. got stuck on the slop next, then the Southwest. I figured Albarado did too much, but didn\'t think it was that fast. sounds like they are conceding the Wood to War Pass, and aiming for the Derby.

sound like a good plan to me; I\'m still on board.

[Lance]

I\'m well invested in this hoss, too -- and I\'m disappointed by the change in plans, because it means he\'ll be heading to Churchill with only four lifetime starts. It seems that every year, some trainer or owner decides that talent is more important than experience and sends a highly regarded colt to the Derby with fewer than five career starts. And every year, the same thing happens: no roses.

Curlin, Indian Charlie, Congaree, Medaglia d\'Oro, High Limit, Flower Alley, Stephen Got Even, Tapit, Air Forbes One, Showing Up, etc.

It\'s a pretty impressive list.

My belief is that when you can count a horses\'s starts on one hand, every race does indeed count and does indeed build foundation and experience, both physically and mentally. I bet this horse in the futures based on a five-race prep schedule. I have the utmost respect for Jerry, and I don\'t know how to answer the interesting question he posed (\"if he ran twice, what two figures would you like to see on his sheet going into the Derby?\"), but I still think Denis needs two more races prior to the Derby. Truthfully, I wish now that I\'d never played him. C\'est la vie.

[ronwar]

That is a good question Jerry.  Would you like to see a pair up in the next or a small step forward to produce his best effort on Derby day?

Now, If he was to run that extra time and moved back a little off the \'0\' then came back and paired it, wouldn\'t that set him up better for the derby, figure wise?  Thanks

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Lance,

Theres a current trend that less is more. I\'ve never bought into it and in my opinion there is no logic to it.

For perspective, I\'d simply ask, \"Which colt was the best 3 Year Old last year?\"

Depending on how you answer that question, my next question would be: \"Was he really ready for the Derby?\" Followed thereafter by \"Was his foundation sufficient for a slowly run Belmont?\"

\"Less is More\" is not necessarily a good thing. \"Less is More\" is sometimes necessary with a fragile animal.

Personally, I\'m much more enamored with a slew of races trending well of late, even if very fast early.

With Denis of Cork, I\'m much less thrilled with skipping the Rebel than those that think \"Less is More.\" I don\'t understand why it was on his schedule and don\'t for a moment believe it wouldn\'t inure to foundation and that he doesn\'t need it. For me, I\'d like to see him run zero/zero in the next two leading to the Derby. I\'d feel real good about that.

If he runs a 2 in the Wood, or even a Zero, Where are you? Where is he? Did he lay off because he wasn\'t ready? Did he lay off because he\'s not up to a demanding schedule? or Did he layoff upon because of a trend?

Good Luck Hossgnat. Is he your pick, or the fella that took Giacomo and Tiago last year?



Lance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m well invested in this hoss, too -- and I\'m
> disappointed by the change in plans, because it
> means he\'ll be heading to Churchill with only four
> lifetime starts. It seems that every year, some
> trainer or owner decides that talent is more
> important than experience and sends a highly
> regarded colt to the Derby with fewer than five
> career starts. And every year, the same thing
> happens: no roses.
>
> Curlin, Indian Charlie, Congaree, Medaglia d\'Oro,
> High Limit, Flower Alley, Stephen Got Even, Tapit,
> Air Forbes One, Showing Up, etc.
>
> It\'s a pretty impressive list.
>
> My belief is that when you can count a horses\'s
> starts on one hand, every race does indeed count
> and does indeed build foundation and experience,
> both physically and mentally. I bet this horse in
> the futures based on a five-race prep schedule. I
> have the utmost respect for Jerry, and I don\'t
> know how to answer the interesting question he
> posed (\"if he ran twice, what two figures would
> you like to see on his sheet going into the
> Derby?\"), but I still think Denis needs two more
> races prior to the Derby. Truthfully, I wish now
> that I\'d never played him. C\'est la vie.

[marcus]

this year looks a lot more wide open to me than in recent past . usually i can make a case for a futures play , but have been unable to get even close to one this year . perhaps pool #3 will yield something  although that\'s probably imo more likely than someone running their way into a triple crown in \'08 ...

[hossgnat]

I haven\'t a clue how to answer your question, TGJB.  As stated, my knowledge of your figures is superficial at best.

But since the trainer of my early Derby pick is explaining his motivation in selecting prep races and their spacing through the lexicon of TGraph figures, I thought that others here could shed some light on that.  Obviously, any conditioner is seeking a peak performance on Derby day. Still, it struck me as odd that Carroll would publicly cite such esoteric information as TGraph figures to explain the decision. This is surely not a common practice. On the other hand, maybe it\'s refreshing in the sense that it really cuts to the chase.

I\'ll take heart that you think skipping the Rebel is a good move, because, at first blush, it\'s difficult for me to find the positive in the decision.

[hossgnat]

Chuck-

I do agree that \"Less is More\" is not the way to go. But, \"More is Less\" is surely true too.

Lance spelled out the minimum requirements quite well.

But I\'ll gladly let Carroll prove us all wrong.

[Silver Charm]

This is the right move and it is good that the trainer is open minded enough to be looking at all available data to make the right decisions.

The Rebel is a small pot and even smaller prestige.

The Wood is big money, big prestige and an opportunity for rest and four weeks before the Derby versus three weeks with the Arkansas Derby.

This guy thought this out and made the right move. Or somebody did it for him.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If Denis of Cork wins the Derby and runs representative races in the Preakness and Belmont, it would be fair to say he made the right move.

If Denis of Cork throws a clunker in the Derby and thereafter proves to be among the crops best, it would be fair to say he made a bonehead move.

If Denis is a top horse the decision to add or remove the Rebel from his schedule won\'t matter in the least but for foundation.

I\'m of the opinion that if the horse is sound with only three races under the  saddle and two months to the dance its a bonehead move and if that is the circumstance the trainer may want to get his scapegoats in order.

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is the right move and it is good that the
> trainer is open minded enough to be looking at all
> available data to make the right decisions.
>
> The Rebel is a small pot and even smaller
> prestige.
>
> The Wood is big money, big prestige and an
> opportunity for rest and four weeks before the
> Derby versus three weeks with the Arkansas Derby.
>
> This guy thought this out and made the right move.
> Or somebody did it for him.

[pres711]

with only one start last year I had already questioned his ability to run the 1 1/4 on may3.  this will cost him necessary foundation. a bounce and then another 0 heading to kentucky would have made him a major play at good odds. big disappointment.

[RICH]

JB

I would expect a small backward move in his next, followed by a move thru the 0 (derby day), if he ran 2 before the derby, the top most likely comes pre-derby.

[Flighted Iron]

Seems a zero or slightly better might not be a bad number to run in the Derby.
Hypothetically I would prefer next race to be a 2.5 and the race prior to the
Derby a 1.25

[miff]

It is NEVER a good sign(maybe neutral on occasion) when a horse has a schedule change. Most of the time you will find horses that deviate from their original big race prep plans do not win.


Mike