T'Graphers - a little help

[RICH]

Iron

The problem with that line would be 0-2.5-1.25, this line to me is weak, they should get right back or thru that top immediately after the small setback. These are developing  3 yr stakes horses that should be moving foward.

[fkach]

I think handicappers like to look for rules to make their lives easier, but there are no hard fast rules in racing.

IMHO....

It is better if a horse has had more experience and seasoning going into the Derby.

The field is usually very large, the crowd very noisy, the race often roughly run, the pace usually tough, the distance very demanding etc....

If a horse hasn\'t dealt with a variety of difficult trips (racing inside, between, and outside horses, having dirt kicked in his face, getting banged around a little, all the noise, racing without the lead etc...) and had some good experience routing, it can\'t be to his advantage to do so for the first time against the best 3YOs in the world on a day when many are peaking.

On the flip side, the idea is to have your horse physically peak for the Derby, not before it.

I think it\'s a difficult task for a trainer to try to accomplish both in time for the Derby when they are often dealing with soundness issues also.

I think the handicapper has to analyze the facts subjectively to try to determine if the horse is ready for the assignment or not.

[marcus]

that makes sense to me and i\'d guess a \"neutral\" occasion schedule change situation applies in rare circumstances to that of an exceptionally very good horse ...

[TGJB]

First of all, there can always be more to the story than is made public. And I\'m instituting a new rule-- if someone decides to change plans from now on, they must use the word \"Thoro-Graph\" in their reason.

But assuming things are as stated, gentlemen, you guys are missing the point. This is not a general question of what you would do with a generic 3yo-- this is a horse that just jumped 5 points, to a zero, in February. As Michael said near the top of this string, \"Ouch\".

Take a look through the past Derby horses and see how horses that peaked this early have done. Not only won\'t you find winners who look like that (with the posible exception of Smarty, who was a freak-- the best Spring 3yo who ever lived-- and able to win the Derby without running a top), you won\'t find many who ran in the race, because most fall apart before then and don\'t make it to the gate.

So I agree with giving him extra time after the jump. And even that might not be enough-- if this horse does not perform well (in figure terms) going forward, and in the TC, it will be because of running too fast too soon, not the management.

There is a reason that horses without foundation tend not to win the Derby, and it ain\'t the lack of racing. When a horse doesn\'t start until three it\'s because he\'s been slow to develop, which means he has to develop an awful lot in a very short period of time to be fast enough. (And it means that if they do run fast, like DOC, it represents a severe effort, a big jump from where they were 6 months ago. Which is why Curlin was so exceptional). If a horse is lightly raced or has gaps, it often means he has had soundness problems. Neither bodes well for standing up to Spring 3yo pressures.

But if a horse establishes a decent 2yo top, meaning he doesn\'t have to develop an extraordinary amount too quickly, they can go into the Derby lightly raced as a 3yo and run well enough to win. See Victory Gallop (best figure in that Derby), and Barbaro (ran 3 times, but one was Jan 1).

[mkram]

This was very helpful.  Thanks for taking the time to post this.

Street Sense and now War Pass and Pyro threw huge numbers in the final races of their 2YO campaigns in the BC.  Street Sense matched his top in the Derby after two prep races.  Pyro could be on a similar path.

How do you view too fast too soon as it relates to 2YO\'s embarking on their 3YO campaigns?  Does one have to assess how they got to those 2YO top numbers and how they approach or break through their 2YO top as a 3YO to answer the too fast too soon question?

[TGJB]

You answered your own question, exactly.

It\'s worthy of note that trainers have become much smarter when it comes to this stuff, and some are in effect manufacturing patterns. Not just Carrol here with DOC, but possibly Zito, definitely Nafzger with SS, and absolutely Asmussen with Pyro. He\'s already announced he\'s running in the Blue grass next, and I think he\'s doing the same thing Nafzger did-- he thinks it will keep the horse from running his eyeballs out before the TC.

[Flighted Iron]

Even if the race previous the zero was a 6 1/4? I suppose they\'re all going
to develop at different rates.I\'m still hanging with Pyro.I would imagine he\'s paired 3\'s so far.Hoping he moves forward a couple points in his next effort.

[fkach]

What would you say about a horse like War Pass who has done nothing but go wire to wire on loose lead in all his races (granted setting some fast paces doing it)?

1. Zito took the easiest path possible with his first prep.

2.The Tampa race is likely to come up weak. So it would not shock me if WP makes an easy lead again and wins wire to wire.

3. That leaves the Wood.

Let\'s assume he gets a relatively easy trip on the lead in the Wood.

WP is a very fast horse (at least he was last year) and Zito has generally done a pretty good job with some of his 3YOs.

However, IMHO, if this horse does not get some experience with another quality speed horse right on him, or several in front of him kicking dirt in his face etc.... IMO he is more vulnerable than a horse with equal ability that is more experienced or that has been taught to rate if someone sets a suicidal pace.

It\'s always possible he\'s another Seattle Slew and it really doesn\'t matter because he can blow away a bunch of other quality speeds and hold off the closers at 10F anyway, but I wouldn\'t want to bet on it.

It\'s also possible he\'ll get a loose lead in moderate fractions in the Derby, but I wouldn\'t want to bet on that either.  

If I had my choice, I\'d rather see him behind horses, inside/outside/between quality stalkers, etc.. at least once before getting thrown into a 20 horse field where he might not have such an easy time shaking loose and getting his typical trip.

I think things like that are intangibles unrelated to physical development and form cycle that have given more experienced horses an advantage when all else looked equal.

It\'s really tough to get both the experience you\'d like for your horse and to get him to peak on the right day when you are dealing with soundness and development issues. But IMO the experience factor is not totally irrelevant.

[TGJB]

As usual, you are having a different conversation. That\'s not even a comment about the validity of what you said-- but it\'s on a different subject.

[fkach]

>>>There is a reason that horses without foundation tend not to win the Derby, and it ain\'t the lack of racing. When a horse doesn\'t start until three it\'s because he\'s been slow to develop, which means he has to develop an awful lot in a very short period of time to be fast enough. (And it means that if they do run fast, like DOC, it represents a severe effort, a big jump from where they were 6 months ago. Which is why Curlin was so exceptional). If a horse is lightly raced or has gaps, it often means he has had soundness problems. Neither bodes well for standing up to Spring 3yo pressures.

But if a horse establishes a decent 2yo top, meaning he doesn\'t have to develop an extraordinary amount too quickly, they can go into the Derby lightly raced as a 3yo and run well enough to win. See Victory Gallop (best figure in that Derby), and Barbaro (ran 3 times, but one was Jan 1).<<<<<



I realize that some people are talking purely about figure patterns, but they are also talking about \"foundation\", \"racing experience\", \"being ready for 10F\" etc.... To some degree, what I am suggesting is that seasoning, racing experience etc... are part of the equation for determining whether the pattern and spacing are actually a plus, minus, or huge question mark. I am asking for your opinion on that. You seem to be suggesting it doesn\'t matter.

If WP comes in with the best pattern and spacing in the world I\'m still going to hate him if I think he\'s going to get outrun or face a lot of company for the lead for the first time (though it may be no ones fault he wasn\'t experienced enough to cope). I think his lack of seasoning \"so far\" is a negative.

[hossgnat]

This is really interesting.  So in DOC\'s case (putting aside for the moment our own independent assessment), his connections believe he is sitting on a big effort with an explosive effort subsequent to that one.  And the only way to make the Derby the explosion is to run just one more prep rather than two.  So they skip the Rebel and loosen the screws a little, tighten up again somewhat for the Wood (or Ill Derby), get an extra week in the Derby run-up, and go for it.

In this scenario, I\'d expect that regression in the next race (Wood) to be a sign that the plan has gone awry.  Agree or not?

Others have argued that 3YO development and experience should not be sacrificed to the altar of \"managed\" form cycles, but I\'m growing more comfortable with the approach.

[fkach]

>Others have argued that 3YO development and experience should not be sacrificed to the altar of \"managed\" form cycles, but I\'m growing more comfortable with the approach.<

I am suggesting it\'s not a one way street.  

IMO there are upsides and downsides that have to be weighed that are unique to each horse.

Barbaro - Multiple routes, raced in big fields, faced fast and slow paces, raced from various positions, raced on various surfaces, faced tough 3YO competition, etc... That\'s a lot of experience and preparation for such a lightly raced horse.

War Pass - Every race wire to wire and all but one (a maiden sprint) loose on the lead. A very weak field for his first 2008 prep. Another potentially weak and small field for his next prep. Not much experience, but a very fast 2YO race and a potentially very nice pattern heading into the Derby if he moves forward next out (which I would expect).  

IMO, Barbaro was pefectly prepped despite the lack of racing experience. IMO, the same cannot be said of War Pass yet despite a potentially terrific pattern. They might be better off with WP if they threw him to the wolves before the Derby or at least hope the Wood comes up strong and with a few quality speeds. Maybe he\'ll run hard and fast, but it might do less damage to his chances than not being prepared at all.

[TGJB]

Whatever the connections expect (or say they expect), it is likely that a 3yo that just jumped 5 points to a zero in February is going to bounce next time out, whether given 3 weeks or 6 weeks (maybe 80% vs. 60%). There\'s more chance he will get back to his top later if he\'s given 6 weeks, and more importantly, more chance he will make the Derby or any other race at all.

[fkach]

How about this specific to Denis of Cork?

To me, Denis of Cork is inexperienced and at a disadvantage in some ways. Even if skipping his next start is the correct thing to do from a physical/pattern point of view (and I am mildly skeptical), I am suggesting there may be a downside in the experience department from skipping the race.

If the people that think it\'s a good idea to skip the race are correct (the physical considerations outweigh the seasoning/experience/foundation issues), I would argue the trainer has already made a mistake by allowing him to get this sharp so fast because it caused the horse to miss what would have been some helpful seasoning if he got another race into him.  

I hope that makes my point better.

[BitPlayer]

I did a quick run-through of the TG Derby data to find horses who improved to a TG figure of 2 or less in a single jump of 5 points or more during their 3yo years.  The list is below.  Most of the jumpers made the leap in their last prep (they\'re marked with an L), but the few who jumped earlier seem to have run pretty well on the first Saturday in May.  Of course, the list does not include those who made the jump and then failed to make it to the Derby.  No horses from before 2001 made the list, presumably because 2s were rarer back then.

2001
Invisible Ink
Jamaican Rum (L)
Millennium Wind (L)

2002
War Emblem

2003
Empire Maker
Peace Rules
Ten Most Wanted (L)
Indian Express (L)

2004
Castledale (L)

2005
Bellamy Road (L)
Greeley\'s Galaxy (L)
Bandini (L)

2006
Sinister Minister (L)