Graveyard of Favorites

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The interesting part of the issue is that Pyro has also been 4 pts shy of the 2YO top run that same day on that same surface and no one is saying that top took the starch out of him.

I\'m seeing a bunch of unspectacular horses and believe theres still plenty of time for the Derby winner to make himself known. But then again, maybe she has.

CtC

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> how many times have we seen young horses get
> knocked out by running big numbers . a 2 yo
> \"negative - 3 1/2 \" , the \"4 pt bounce \" next and
> then \"yesterdays \" result  . there is little doubt
> imo - that the horses health and whatever side
> issues are attributed in some way to the big 2 yo
> number ... the question of how much more time will
> be needed before running back remains - my gut
> feeling is around BC time ...

[fkach]

Until we know exactly what, if anything, was wrong with him going into the race, whether he got hurt at the start, or whether he was exposed by a rougher trip, it\'s hard to speculate much.

I agree with Chuckles that figures earned by horses that go wire to wire on loose leads on very sloppy tracks are always suspect. That kind of track is a very unique set of conditions that some horses love and others hate. In addition, the margins between horses are often very exaggerated because mud gets kicked in horses\' and jocks\' faces, the jocks ease beaten horses early etc.... That doesn\'t mean the figures are wrong. They are just less reliable as an indication of what a horse can do on a fast track. Big tops on tracks like that are often not repeated. All that said, I have no idea what his race at MTH had to do with yesterday. Even if you drew a line through that race, he was still 1-5 yesterday.

To me, this was a big disappointent. I intended on making a huge bet against him in the Derby. I was also hoping he would prove me wrong and prove to be a special horse. It doesn\'t look like either will happen now.

[marcus]

ctc - looks like a good appraisal - \'08 futures looked exceptionally dull though a couple new faces got to be right there - imo . i amended my post because it seemed to heavy and negative - but you got it anyway and thats fine becouse i\'m convinced now the big # singed the horse  .  

Last week while dining in mexico city , i was seated at Poncho Villas old table at what was his favorite restaurant and noticed from the window , while waiting my desert cafe latte , a group of mexico city thoroughbred police horses passing along with a manifestation on juarez blvd and wondered if a stallion registry could be found to trace these horses back and then see what kind of numbers they ran ...  

I must say one of the scariest moments down there was walking past  a corporate looking type book store where  they had a book in the window display , \" presidente clinton \" with a picture of hillary on the cover . But seriously - based on those numbers , war pass probably couldn\'t out run montezuma\'s revenge right now and honestly , an 0 4 X at this stage of the game ? can\'t be a good thing for the horse  ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tough commentary here, but I\'m reading it differently. Provided War Pass can come back and run tough in the Wood, I\'m not disposed to toss him in the Derby upon the basis of a juvenile campaign that ruined him. If War Pass ran say a 1 or 2 in the Wood and caught a favorable Derby track with horses he could control the pace with, I can\'t say I would not bet him.

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ctc- looks like a good appraisal - \'08 futures
> looked exceptionally dull though a couple new
> faces got to be right there - imo . i amended my
> post because it seemed to heavy and negative - but
> you got it anyway and thats fine becouse  i\'m
> convinced now that big # singed the horse  .  
>
> Last week while dining in mexico city , i was
> seated at Poncho Villas old table at what was his
> favorite restaurant and noticed from the window ,
> while waiting my desert cafe latte , a group of
> mexico city thoroughbred police horses passing
> along with a manifestation on juarez blvd and
> wondered if a stallion registry could be found to
> trace these horses back and then see what kind of
> numbers they ran ...  
>
> I must say one of the scariest moments down there
> was walking past  a corporate looking type book
> store where  they had a book in the window display
> , \" presidente clinton \" with a picture of hillary
> on the cover . But seriously - based on those
> numbers , war pass probably couldn\'t out run
> montezuma\'s revenge right now and honestly , an 0
> 4 X at this stage of the game ? can\'t be a good
> thing for the horse  ...

[miff]

Mark,

War Pass reacted 4 months later? Wow!Anyway, never believe one performance by a horse, good or bad.

As far as the outrage by some of the fever thing, you would be astonished how often a horse will run in a big race despite a mid-week minor illness/heat/injury.Agree with Bob on the Blood work and have to believe it was done when the fever spiked.

That is also why you have to be a stone sucker to bet $600k in the show pool to pick up 5%. All you have to do now is win 20 shows bets in a row to get even.


Mike

[marcus]

mike - ok , we can agree to disagree - except that i never draw lines through numbers . just an observation ,  02X patterns very well could be hard enough on young horses - much less an apparent  0 4 X now  would speak imo to contridicted what a few of you do seem to be saying about the mth race .  

effects of stresses and exertions incurred in running big figs manifest themselves down the road in terms \"races\" and are the quantifying factors - not necesarily time ...

let me pass back the torch of undue speculation - wasn\'t barbaros demise potentially traced to a turf race several back when best guess has it that when laboring some , he seemed to shift action abruptly and took off like a car ...
 
i\'ve said what i wanted to say and partly becouse it\'s palm sunday and also becouse many of you are a lot older than me - you got the last word  ...

mark

[miff]

Mark

\"effects of stresses and exertions incurred in running big figs manifest themselves down the road in terms \"races\" and are the quantifying factors - not necessarily time\"


...not an ounce of fact and merely someone\'s opinion, may or may not be correct. For every horse you show reacting to a big fig, I\'ll show two that did not.They are all different and painting them all with one stroke of the dogma brush has been disproved many times over.


Barbaro took a bad a step or had an injury which came from someplace that I believe no one knows(may have been from his previous efforts though)

I\'m sure I\'m older than you and appreciate your opinion but I have done years of research and found no evidence/facts to support the opinion that all horses react to stressful performances equally.

Nice Palm Sunday, Mark.


Mike

[Flighted Iron]

What is your feeling if he\'s entered in the Wood?

[Flighted Iron]

That is also why you have to be a stone sucker to bet $600k in the show pool to pick up 5%. All you have to do now is win 20 shows bets in a row to get even.

 A man looking for value I presume?
Everything considered regarding WP\'s loss,If he runs back in the Wood,at what price would you find value in him?

[marcus]

Flighted Iron - i\'m primarily thinking of a few things - derby pattern profiles , the negative number study and my personal experience and observations of when they run the really big ones , and also i\'m thinking about the prospects for young horses running to new tops as opposed to those running back to old ones .  

imo- with big top efforts , the question always arises as was the case with \'smarty for example - how long can they hold together . to my satisfaction , i feel war pass has already and sufficiently answered with this question with his last 2 numbers .

just to add - i do appreciate and value everyones opinions and experiences here and i actually hope i\'m wrong about war pass - he\'s a nice horse after all - but from my perspective , the basis for concern about his well being is evident - imo .

i guess the my best answer to your question is i\'d probably use him on top as a saver in the wood ...

[Flighted Iron]

J,

  It seems to be the case.Is it rational to say that even the most rational beings
make irrational(mistakes)decisions?I\'m wagering on the human factor here.In the
ensuing weeks The animal himself will give them their next decision.Based on what
I\'ve heard,I\'m confident War Pass will redeem himself if he goes postward in the
Wood.As a bettor I can only hope for value.

[fkach]

I want to hear some details of what might have really happened.

If he goes in the Wood, the public won\'t bet him as heavily as if he won yesterday, but they will still bet him pretty heavily. I think that\'s more or less the correct idea, it\'s the degree that could be off.  

If he loses (especially if badly), then it\'s pretty much over.

If he wins impressively, but \"wire to wire loose on the lead\", I\'m going to hold the race at Tampa against him at least a little no matter what they use as an excuse for that race.

[miff]

When a horse of that caliber runs that poorly,it\'s more than a bump/squeeze/stumble.Watching the rerun, when Velasquez tried to put WP into the race(very early) he had no acceleration, none.Unless he\'s the gutless type that got intimidated by the physical rough-up he received, there must be a reason for that despicable performance.

It could take up to 72 hours for the problem to show, if one exists.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff,

War Pass had always had it his own way.

In the way of analogy, I\'d point out that Ten Most Wanted never ran a lick when he was roughed up.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When a horse of that caliber runs that poorly,it\'s
> more than a bump/squeeze/stumble.Watching the
> rerun, when Velasquez tried to put WP into the
> race(very early) he had no acceleration,
> none.Unless he\'s the gutless type that got
> intimidated by the physical rough-up he received,
> there must be a reason for that despicable
> performance.
>
> It could take up to 72 hours for the problem to
> show, if one exists.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck,

It\'s possible he\'s a coward but not to have any run at any point seems to suggest he was \"knocked out sick\" or has a physical issue which was unknown prior to the race.This is kinda an anti Zito board(posters, not management) mostly but I doubt he sent this horse out knowing something might be amiss.

Maybe he\'ll scope dirty,show something physical or show nothing wrong at all(love to bet that kind back)


Mike