Trash

[Silver Charm]

The Turfway racing today was full of garbage. No two ways about it. This was a Graded version of the Winstar Derby. And the other races were not up to Tampa standards.

The more I see the more I like two horses. One is Court Vision and the other will remain nameless.

[ajkreider]

The time for the Lane\'s End seemed pretty quick, at least as compared to races they\'ve had lately.  

Of course, that may just reflect that much worse on the racing there, but I\'d bet Adriano gets a good number.

[Favorite Trick]

I remember when Turfway big days meant something.Now its just a bunch of cows plodding around in a circle.

[Silver Charm]

The place is a health hazard.

The racing was so odorous you needed a cloth facial mask.

The kickback may be the worst of all the synthetics, can make a jockey go blind.

The race calling will make you go deaf. I am having two shattered windows replaced to day. Try getting that done on Easter.

I do not care what figure Adriano gets if you try and tell me a horse beaten 20 lengths in the FOY is a Derby contender then all of the above made you delirious.

[Lance]

\"I do not care what figure Adriano gets if you try and tell me a horse beaten 20 lengths in the FOY is a Derby contender then all of the above made you delirious.\"

For what it\'s worth, Adriano washed out very badly in the paddock prior to the Fountain of Youth and was rank early the race, his only dirt effort, which took place on an unseasonably warm day. Couple that with the fact that no horse has won from the 12-hole at Gulfstream going 9F, and it\'s not impossible to discard the effort. Truth is, this horse is regally bred for old-fashioned dirt: AP Indy on top, Mr. Prospector dam on the bottom, with a great grand dam who won the Santa Anita Oaks, plus maternal bloodlines that trace back to Bet Twice. What\'s more, Adriano is a May foal -- in other words, a very young 3-year-old -- so he has every right to show further improvement in the coming weeks.

I guess I\'m delirious.

[miff]

You forgot the part about Adriano being slow as a snail and never won on dirt.When a horse with that breeding starts out long on the grass, and stays there, it\'s usually because they are too slow to run on dirt.Ran well on Poly and further confirms that many turf runners have an affinity for poly.


Mike

[alm]

I completely agree with the observation...Adriano is likely a turf horse.  

But as to WHY any horse is turf or dirt (or both) one reflective answer can be found in the work some have made on a horse\'s biomechanics.  To the effect that there is a strong correlation between the length of a horse\'s hind tibias and its ability to maintain traction in the slop and on turf (maybe on Poly too?)  The longer the tibia the more wobble in the hind end.  A turf horse is likely to have a more compact or shorter hind tibia.

In other words, a turf horse may be slower on dirt, but he or she may just get better traction on turf and be faster than dirt horses who try the turf.

It doesn\'t really matter from a betting point-of-view.  You can\'t get out there and measure a horse at post time.  But it may be safe to predict that Adriano (and Go For Gin also) may be more effective at the Derby if it comes up sloppy.

[richiebee]

Lance:

I hadn\'t noticed that he had washed out in the FOY.

With regards to May foals in the Derby, I attempted to do a semi scientific
study of this last year.

Between 1980- 2007,only 2 May foals were victorious in the Derby-- Pleasant
Colony (foaled 5/4) and Thunder Gulch (5/23). I believe that Barbaro was a very
late (4/29?) April foal. Northern Dancer was outside the scope of the \"study\",
but was foaled on 5/27.

I say the study was unscientific because (a) I do not know how many May foals
were entered in the Derby in this time frame and (b)I was not able to find
foaling dates for Spend A Buck, Ferdinand and Lil E Tee.

[Favorite Trick]

This is by far one of the worst class of 3 year olds i seen.They are slow and boring.Beside Pyro no won has step up their game from last year.And one good horse virus 19 cows makes for a very boring Derby.

[Lance]

Thanks for sharing your findings, Richie.

And thanks to Alm for the biomechanics stuff. Very interesting.

For the record, I\'m not saying Adriano is gonna win the Derby -- I just think it\'s too soon to say he can\'t handle the dirt, given his breeding and youth.

[Silver Charm]

Trickster that may be a little harsh to say the Derby will be boring. Yesterday was boring. The Derby will be much better than that.

I am a little surprised no one debated the kickback issue at Turfway. This is brutal and not just for the riders but mostly the horses. It makes for a very unorthodox type of racing and cheapens the outcomes.

How so you ask? Here is how. Everyone wants to rally on the outside. No one wants their horses having the garbage kicked in the faces and those that do, tend to stop running and or not run as hard as they can into it.

The rail was clearly no good. So there was a little bit of wide bias built into things to begin with. Now make the rally\'s all need to be WIDE RALLY\'S and I actually am not really sure if the figures are reliable. Doesn\'t everything at this point become relative.

Has anyone at TP split horses down the lane and won gamely? Or has it all been a six wide rally and a run down the middle of the course? If it is the latter then as I said garbage in garbage out.

Getting the two cracked windows replaced that race caller Mike Battaglia shattered with his SCREAMING stretch calls cost me $150. Which is what I won for the day. I will not make another bet there the rest of the meet. And other than Kentucky Cup Day maybe ever.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Pyro has stepped up his game from last year?

Says who?

Favorite Trick Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is by far one of the worst class of 3 year
> olds i seen.They are slow and boring.Beside Pyro
> no won has step up their game from last year.And
> one good horse virus 19 cows makes for a very
> boring Derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Welcome to the club.

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trickster that may be a little harsh to say the
> Derby will be boring. Yesterday was boring. The
> Derby will be much better than that.
>
> I am a little surprised no one debated the
> kickback issue at Turfway. This is brutal and not
> just for the riders but mostly the horses. It
> makes for a very unorthodox type of racing and
> cheapens the outcomes.
>
> How so you ask? Here is how. Everyone wants to
> rally on the outside. No one wants their horses
> having the garbage kicked in the faces and those
> that do, tend to stop running and or not run as
> hard as they can into it.
>
> The rail was clearly no good. So there was a
> little bit of wide bias built into things to begin
> with. Now make the rally\'s all need to be WIDE
> RALLY\'S and I actually am not really sure if the
> figures are reliable. Doesn\'t everything at this
> point become relative.
>
> Has anyone at TP split horses down the lane and
> won gamely? Or has it all been a six wide rally
> and a run down the middle of the course? If it is
> the latter then as I said garbage in garbage out.
>
>
> Getting the two cracked windows replaced that race
> caller Mike Battaglia shattered with his SCREAMING
> stretch calls cost me $150. Which is what I won
> for the day. I will not make another bet there the
> rest of the meet. And other than Kentucky Cup Day
> maybe ever.

[jbelfior]

Better let the trainer (Motion) know how enthusiastic you are. As of now, he has no intention of running ADRIANO in the Derby.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[marcus]

one easter egg hunt concluded and another just beginning ...   would be interesting imo to see adriano play the string out . maybe the derby will turn out to be a good betting one if not the most memorable .
with the exception of likely derby runner pryo and war pass , if he can make the race  , there\'s a host of fillies that are as fast as any of the colts - maybe we\'ll have a fillie winning the triple crown or a different fillie each winning a race .