A Word from Our Host

[Lance]

\"Use the Derby to try and get lucky, you can bet on a 3-1 shot anytime. Try and crush the race. REALLY crush it.\"

Very well said.

[miff]

JB,


There are many sheet players(right on this board) who will argue that a blow out slop number run by a common horse is legit, I don\'t.For their info, following those horses history, most of the time it\'s not. Not saying the fig you award is wrong, it\'s right, imo,but it\'s value is only on sloppy tracks from my experience.Your point on horses that run fast on dry tracks as well as slop is something I totally agree with. Such horses are not to be lumped in with the common horse who just freaks one day and blows a field away on a wet fast track as Jim inferred.

Would not be surprised if Pyro runs back to his top slop fig because it was not that fast a fig and he did not\"make\" the fig, that was WP\'s doing.Pyro is now fortunate to be running slow figs because of race shape. You are giving credit to Asmussen for the way those races developed?? Don\'t agree at all that he\'s doing some special \"pointing\" of this horse. He\'s just been fortunate in many ways which you have to be to win the derby, aside from having a fast one going in.

Incidentally, Asmussen took much the same route with Zanjero last year and he got beat a pole in the Derby.Funny how a fast horse makes a trainer look smart and the slow ones don\'t even get them an interview.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff,

Did I miss something?...Is War Pass a pass? If not, I\'m not prepared to dismiss him just yet.

I love the way this race is developing with the betting public and the industry folks.

I\'m watching a couple colts coming along. Denis of Cork was getting some attention from me, but then he skipped a race I figured he had to run. Whether he gets included now will be dependent on his final prep, but he\'ll have to run a very satisfactory race to regain my attention.

I\'ve also got my eye on El Gato Malo and am very interested in another colt that I don\'t want to mention just yet.

Lastly theres a couple fillies I\'m dying to see make the gate.

Richuffian will insist that I don\'t have an undisclosed colt or filly that I\'m factoring. He believes that I\'ll spring the undisclosed 3YO\'s post race. I might not make them public in time for others to consider, but Native Richer is wrong and if they make the field I will discuss them pre off time.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> You are forgetting that with the demise of War
> Pass, only two fast ones are left to challange
> Pyro(as of now) and they have issues  Dennis of
> Cork(ridiculous management) and Big Brown(very
> inexperienced) and this Saturday will tell lots
> about his future as a derby prospect.
>
> Agree that short priced, one run closers,should
> always have a  bulleye on their back for gambling
> purposes.
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck,

Having heard and seen the aftermath of the War Pass debacle, I am having great difficulty is granting a mulligan for such an inexcusable, despicable, performance.Not ready to put a fork in him but he\'s got to be giant in the Wood for me to consider him a legit derby threat.

Mike

[jimbo66]

I guess this is why horse racing is about opinions and getting paid when you are right.  IMHO JB is giving way to much credit to Asmussen for his handling of Pyro and is basing it on the fact that Pyro is set to finally run back to his top in the Derby.  

i am going with the theory of the fast fig being earned on a sloppy track and I am throwing it out.  Looking at Pyro\'s other figs, he is a \"contender\" but nothing special.  As the favorite, poor value.

And one other thing I was told about 4 summers back at Saratoga by a couple of Sheets experts.  \"Healthy 3 year olds should get back to their 2 year old top no later than their 2nd start in their 3 year old season\".

I am pretty sure that isn\'t a misquote.

And who were those two sheets experts?

Well, Jerry and Allan at the Carolina Barbecue seminars....

[SoCalMan2]

Been pretty busy with work, so please pardon my ignorance if I missed it when he fell of the Derby trail.  What ever happened to Etched?

[BitPlayer]

Etched went to Dubai to run in the series of three races ending with the UAE Derby.  He finished a tiring 4th in the first leg and hasn\'t been back.  He was mentioned as a likely starter in the UAE Derby in stories last week, but wasn\'t in the provisional fields that were released on Monday.  Godolphin\'s Triple Crown hopeful in the UAE Derby now seems to be Numaany.

[miff]

Stubborn Sheik continues to send potential young stars to winter in Dubai only to fade into obscurity.

Mike

[SoCalMan2]

thanks for the info!

I had thought he might turn into something nice.

[miff]

\"I had thought he might turn into something nice\"


So Cal,

Lots of informed East Coast eyes saw it the same as you.


Mike

[richiebee]

Chucko Del Sol:

Its Ok to be contrarian. Just remember Richiebee\'s Derby winning filly factoid:
Both Genuine Risk and Winning Colors ran their final Derby prep against colts,
GR running 3rd in the Wood and WC dominating the SA Derby. Sorry I haven\'t had
the time to research what Regret\'s final Derby prep was in 1915.

Now I hear that Eight Belles(?), owned by Rick Porter, the man with the bowtie
who lusts for Derby glory, might run in the Ark Derby.This filly has developed
late, which is a nice way of pointing out that she was beaten at short odds in
her first 2 tries at Delaware as a 2YO. If she runs big in the Arkansas Derby
she is certainly a candidate to bounce like a Spaldeen in either the Oaks or
the Derby 3 weeks later; if I know Rick Porter, almost any kind of decent
effort in the Ark Derby will result in a Kentucky Derby start.

Bobby Frankel\'s Country Star has not run this year and has never run on a dirt
surface in her 3 lifetime outs. And Frankel, like Hall of Fame counterparts
Mott and Jerkens, has compiled an awesome resume which does not include Derby
success.

Proud Spell has iron form. A graded stakes winner at 2 and 3 and without
watching the race I would have to say that the 10 hole was no bargain in the
goo at the Shore in the BC Juvie. Of the three fillies mentioned, the one who
has the best chance against colts.

Selfishly, I hope these three end up in the gate on Friday and we will have a
good betting Oaks--and don\'t forget that Oaks/Derby gimmick.

Other Derby thoughts --I have a lot of catching up to do on the California
3YOs. I have not seen any of their races.

I\'ll play it coy -- like my friend Clownhill Native (or Plugged Chuckles)(an
obscure reference to the two co-faves in Genuine Risk\'s 80 Derby). The colt I
am watching closely right now has a 2 turn graded stakes win as a 3YO and ran a
very good race at CD as a 2YO.

The best Derby prep should be this weekend\'s Fla Derby. The trainers of the
runners in this race do not have the luxury of \"pattern making\" as most (all)
of the entrants need graded earnings to have a Derby shot.

I can\'t wait to see Frankstro in the winner\'s circle. And I hear there is a
special promo for all fans attending the Fla Derby live-- for $3 you get a
bottle of Frank\'s Energy Elixir and 2 shares of Magna Entertainment stock.

[mkram]

Richiebee - I have been watching the same colt.  In fact, got a future bet on him in pool 2.  Let the fun begin!

[ronwar]

The Florida Derby has gotten me a little excited.  I believe there maybe a couple of stars running.  A few questions certainly will be answered. Is Hey Byrn and Big Brown really this good and can Tomcito dublicate his form over here?  Interesting indeed.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> I\'ve also got my eye on El Gato Malo and am very
> interested in another colt that I don\'t want to
> mention just yet.

Clownstone: (an homage to 96 Derby winner Grindstone and his son 04 Belmont
winner Birdstone):

About that crazy cat El Gato Malo:

1) How have the El Corredors fared past 1 mile?

2) Very surprised that you point out a gelding who like Georgie Boy and Colonel John will possibly enter the Derby without having raced on dirt. Its a Brave New Derby World.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- and I stand by that reading of 3yos under ordinary circumstances. But in the few cases of manufactured patterns (Street Sense last year, possibly Pyro now) I make exceptions. The Pyro case is a little complicated by the slop, but we\'ll find out in May.

Personally, I hope he runs up the track over Poly. Then he might be a good enough price to use in the Derby-- like SS last year.

By the way, I\'ve only made one future book bet this year, and that came this week when I got down at 75-1 on a horse I\'ll keep to myself for the time being. Hint-- pretty sure he\'s running next week.

I won\'t comment on any guesses either way.