Big Brown Runs

[richiebee]

ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing
> needs its stars.

I agree, but for a different, selfish reason. I hope Big Jerry\'s feet
and the rest of him stay sound so that I will have a short priced favorite to
bet against on the first Saturday in May.

Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped up off his dominant Florida
Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I think it was
called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
Memorial.

Even more unbelievable that the usually cool and calculating \"Chalkles the
Clown\" is leading the BJB parade, or is at least right behind the drum major.

If you fancy BJB\'s chances, you have to hope that he has a decent workout in
the next 10 days. My opinion is that BJB, as dominant as he was on Saturday,
still needs a month of good conditioning to get ready for 10 furlongs on Derby
Day; no way he can succeed in the Derby after a month in a tub full of Epsom
salt or an extended stay in the Hyperbaric Chamber.

As to Racing needing heroes, Curlin and Benny the Bull are both in the midst of
extended campaigns of excellence. Benny has a catchy name and Curlin, the best
thoroughbred of the 21st Century, is one of the flashiest specimens I have
encountered in my years as a racing fan. With Curlin you also have the story of
the dispute over his ownership and management. These horses and their stories
are quite marketable. Ouija Board was a globe trotting heroine over an extended
career but very few folks outside of Racing were aware of her exploits.

The powers that be in Racing have done nothing to expose horses like Curlin and
Benny to the casual sports fan. At Derby time there is always added exposure,
but what the general public will probably hear about is that Tricky is the son
of a tremendous horseman, that Tricky was excluded for the sport for 5 years
while he exorcised his personal demons, that the mother of Tricky\'s child was
murdered in upstate New York.

The \"Buzz\" will last as long as there is a possibility of a Triple Crown winner.
Once that possibility no longer exists, the casual sports fan tunes out.

I\'ll watch the parade with interest, but I won\'t drink from that Big Brown jug
of Kool Aid that\'s being passed around.

[alm]

With all due respect, the horse\'s veering in the stretch had nothing to do with seeing the crowd....he went wide out of the turn for home, probably because he was tiring...that\'s normal...when he later ducked down towards the rail, almost suddenly, it had something to do with pain, IMHO.

As for the analyst who conjectured he ran greenly, the comment is way off the beam.  Not worth considering.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Big Richee Bee,

I hate to keep going back over this, but Bellamy Road ran on a wicked fast strip Wood Day with only 1 \"early card\" 9 pole event for New York Bred Slow Rats to compare him to.

If memory serves 3 or 4 horses set track records that day. Forest Danger, Don Six, \"Bear Fan? and Bellamy Road. Granting 3 of those track records where the 6 furlong mark in a 7 furlong race.

The entire Wood field collapsed and the best horse in that race (a gelding) had his saddle slip. (He was by Fit to Fight, though I can\'t remember his name right now.) It wasn\'t popular, but I credited Bellamny Road with no better than a negative 1. (At this point, I\'m not certain it was that good.) Bellamy Road ran wide in the Derby on the best part of the track but lacked punch through the lane, which was born out in his subsequent and final start. He was no monster.

In the Florida Derby BRB ran a number equivalent to a very hard knocking South Florida horse, that could win in Grade I company with the same effort at another track. BRB\'s Saturday effort is not an assumption and not an extrapolation. It stands on its own weight. Projecting a wide trip for BRB is impossible but for getting hung up at the break. He not only has speed to kill he has to his point an untested gas tank. Don\'t discount the early race effort Nistle\'s Crunch threw at him. It was much more than a bona fide pace.

I\'m not prepared to write BRB off with 5 weeks to go because of a little wiggling in the stretch and have other reasons to think he\'s gonna be hell to beat if he starts in the Derby in the same condition, granting his post race condition is the key variable.

Maybe I have a little sentimental attachment to BRB now, but there is no comparing the Wood effort of Bellamy Road to the Fladerby effort of BRB. Not gonna do it...not in the same ballpark......uh uh...would be im...pru...dent.

Agree that Curlin is Heavyweight Champion and with any kind of 2YO foundation, he stood a good chance of winning the Triple Crown in a very tough year. Street Sense did love Churchill though.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ronwar Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>  
> > Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing
> > needs its stars.
>
> I agree, but for a different, selfish reason. I
> hope Big Jerry\'s feet
> and the rest of him stay sound so that I will have
> a short priced favorite to
> bet against on the first Saturday in May.
>
> Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped
> up off his dominant Florida
> Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I
> think it was
> called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy
> Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
> Memorial.
>
> Even more unbelievable that the usually cool and
> calculating \"Chalkles the
> Clown\" is leading the BJB parade, or is at least
> right behind the drum major.
>
> If you fancy BJB\'s chances, you have to hope that
> he has a decent workout in
> the next 10 days. My opinion is that BJB, as
> dominant as he was on Saturday,
> still needs a month of good conditioning to get
> ready for 10 furlongs on Derby
> Day; no way he can succeed in the Derby after a
> month in a tub full of Epsom
> salt or an extended stay in the Hyperbaric
> Chamber.
>
> As to Racing needing heroes, Curlin and Benny the
> Bull are both in the midst of
> extended campaigns of excellence. Benny has a
> catchy name and Curlin, the best
> thoroughbred of the 21st Century, is one of the
> flashiest specimens I have
> encountered in my years as a racing fan. With
> Curlin you also have the story of
> the dispute over his ownership and management.
> These horses and their stories
> are quite marketable. Ouija Board was a globe
> trotting heroine over an extended
> career but very few folks outside of Racing were
> aware of her exploits.
>
> The powers that be in Racing have done nothing to
> expose horses like Curlin and
> Benny to the casual sports fan. At Derby time
> there is always added exposure,
> but what the general public will probably hear
> about is that Tricky is the son
> of a tremendous horseman, that Tricky was excluded
> for the sport for 5 years
> while he exorcised his personal demons, that the
> mother of Tricky\'s child was
> murdered in upstate New York.
>
> The \"Buzz\" will last as long as there is a
> possibility of a Triple Crown winner.
> Once that possibility no longer exists, the casual
> sports fan tunes out.
>
> I\'ll watch the parade with interest, but I won\'t
> drink from that Big Brown jug
> of Kool Aid that\'s being passed around.

[fkach]

>>Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped up off his dominant Florida
Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I think it was
called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
Memorial<<

LOL.  I object to that generalization. ;-)

I was salvating to bet against Bellamy Road off his perfect trip -5 against a ton of speed coming from an outside post in the Derby. I have no special desire to bet against Big Brown\'s tough trip \"? figure\".

There are still a few more preps to be run. Let\'s see what happens. We\'ll also have to see if War Pass recovers his best form and makes himself a huge pace threat etc...  

I see nothing in Big Brown\'s PPs that makes me anxious to bet against him.  I thought he was a turf freak after his first start and he seems to be developing into a top dirt horse also. What\'s not to like other than a \"question mark\" about his feet. I haven\'t read anything bad about how he came out of this race. IMO this was a huge and legitimate effort, not a bias aided, loose lead, overhyped, fast figure like BR earned.

I have no clue how his pedigree looks for 10F (anyone?), but it doesn\'t look so great to an uninformed pedigree guy like me.

[ajkreider]

Curlin, the best
thoroughbred of the 21st Century

That\'s quite a claim And probably false - considering others have had as much or more success and run just a quick.

And I like Benny as much as the next man, but before this weekend, he was last seen racing in restricted company.    

My how quicky the Invasors and Ghostzappers are forgotten (to say nothing of Point Given, Smarty, Rock of Gibraltar, or Barbaro)

Speaking of getting caught up in the frenzy . . .

[Eight Belles]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin, the best
> thoroughbred of the 21st Century
>
> That\'s quite a claim And probably false -
> considering others have had as much or more
> success and run just a quick.
>
> And I like Benny as much as the next man, but
> before this weekend, he was last seen racing in
> restricted company.    
>
> My how quicky the Invasors and Ghostzappers are
> forgotten (to say nothing of Point Given, Smarty,
> Rock of Gibraltar, or Barbaro)
>
> Speaking of getting caught up in the frenzy . . .


Curlin\'s already done more than PG and Smarty (I have no idea why Rock of Gibralter and Barbaro were even mentioned).  GZ impressed but doesn\'t have as good of a record as Curlin.  That leaves Invasor as the only possible equal thus far, and Curlin hopefully has the rest of the year to surpass that one.

[ronwar]

Nice points richie, I just think the thing with Bellamy Road is a little different.  Actually he didn\'t finish that bad in the derby considering the pace (h?) I remember the whole race falling apart and Giacomo of all horses winning.

I\'m sure you\'ve seen every other prep so far.  Have you noticed anything similar about each one...The pace has been slowwwwwww, by all accounts.  Even if War Pass comes back in all his glory, the pace shape of the derby is coming up on the light side.

[richiebee]

AJ:

The DeFrancis Dash at Laurel is a Grade I race. The 2007 edition was won by...?

Curlin: Ark Derby, Preakness, JC Gold Cup, BC Classic, Dubai World Cup...

Smarty: What was his record after his 3YO campaign?

Ghostzapper: What was his record away from Belmont Park?

Barbaro: Cant say how great he would have been. Soundness is part of the
equation.

Point Given: Won 4 consecutive million dollar races (Preakness, Belmont,
Haskell, Travers). No BC wins, no racing past his 3YO season. Rivaled Curlin
in terms of physical presence.

Invasor: Pimlico Special, Suburban, Whitney, BC Classic, Donn Handicap, Dubai
World Cup.

OK AJ, I see your point. I will amend my statement.

\"IN MY OPINION, Curlin is the best thoroughbred of the 21st Century\"

[marcus]

curlin ? best in the 21st century ? maybe so - but w/o 2 yo races and the loss to the fillie and in an era when soundness seems to have been bred out of the mix , my question is - how much the best ? more likely imo - one of the best . however if the greatness committee says he\'s in - obviously he\'s in . i\'m just getting around to almost giving \'berni his due ...

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Respect your opinion, but Curlin has to do a little more to earn that honor, IMO.  He didn\'t race at 2, so he has had one campaign, a workout/race in Dubai, then the big race in Dubai.  

Smarty had more races than he did and was as fast.

I am a figure player, like many on this board, and Ghostzapper was faster than Curlin, and was certainly more versatile.  Ghostzapper was Gr. 1 from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4.  

Invasor is on par with Curlin IMO, to this point, with Curlin having the rest of this year to get by him.

If Curlin finishes the year with a couple more Gr. 1\'s and then another BC Classic, he has to get the nod, but I don\'t think it is clearcut yet.

I won\'t blame him for the ocmpetition, but that was probably the worst Dubai World Cup race ever.  Although, I do believe Curlin trounced some very good horses in the BC Classic, in one of the best BC Classic fields in history (IMO).

[ajkreider]

Look, these types of discussions always have a bit of the \"my dad can beat up your dad\" feel to them, so I\'ll go ahead and apologize for sounding a bit snippy earlier.

Curlin is no doubt a great horse, and his durability plays a role in that.  But on talent alone, he\'s got some peers.  PG was simply unstoppable until his injury.  Smartly lost once to Curlin\'s three, and probably lost that because of a bad ride.  How would they had done if they\'d been allowed to continue their careers?  Who knows, but they gave every indication that had at least what Curlin has.

(And the reason I put RofG and Barbaro in there is the way the won their races.  RofG won something like 7 Group ones in a row, and the way he closed from nowhere in the BCT was something to behold.  Barbaro\'s KD was as impressive a win as you\'ll see.)

Maybe through this year there\'ll be more to say on it - as he keeps winning.

[rosewood]

Alm,

You are dead on. Isn\'t it ironic that these greatest horses of the universe (Curlin,Bad Leroy Brown,etc.) are only discovered and handled by the greatest horseman of the universe like Rick Dutrow, Steve Asmussen. Oh, can\'t that Jeff Mullins really turn a claimer around ?

I think that if I had the designer roid\'s that I could make a burro look like Curlin and maybe make that sumbitch fly.

[ronwar]

I think I\'m with you on this one richie.  I was just thinking that a few days ago viewing his PP\'s.  Take nothing away from those other horses, but what Curlin did without \"foundation\" is incredible.  And the BC romp was against one of the best assembled fields in a long time. Point Given and Silver Charm are two of my favs of all time, but whar Curlin just accomplished is amazing. Darn near The all-time leading money earner in what amounts to just about a calendar year of racing!!!  He gets a big WOW from me.

[richiebee]

AJ:

What would these debates be without a little \"snip\" here and there?

And by the way, my father was a lover, not a fighter.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

Ghostzapper\'s distance versatility was impressive, but again most of his
brilliant work was done at Belmont.

Again, soundness plays into the greatness equation. In this day and age, Curlin
dancing all 3 Triple Crown Dances and winning the JC Gold Cup and the BC
Classic at 3,and then coming back as a 4YO and winning in Dubai shows the kind
of durability and greatness we do not frequently get to see.