Big Brown Runs

[richiebee]

Lil Chuck-E Tee:

I couldn\'t resist the \"Bellamania\" reference because I knew it would be answered
by a comment about \"New York Bred Slow Rats\".

There is no question that Big Chuckie Brown has brilliant speed. Certainment,
BCB est tres gran vitesse.

But does he currently have the foundation, the \"bottom\" to tackle the Derby
distance? If he does not, what can Team Dutrow do in the next 30 or so days to
enable him to get this distance?

Long slow works? Some brilliantly fast breezes? Maybe a surprise appearance in
a race at Keeneland? The Derby Trial?

The prototypical lightly raced Derby victor was FuPeg, but FuPeg had the San
Felipe Stake (1-1/16th miles) (defeating BC Juvie winner Anees and eventual
Belmont winner Commendable) in March and the Wood Memorial in April under his
girth before winning the Derby and making Mr. Fusao and his gaggle of geisha
girls very happy.

Even if War Pass takes the Wood, I believe BB could still be a Derby fave. If
War Pass tanks in the Wood, and some of the other contenders are not fully
cranked in their preps, BB could be IMO 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5.

Whether he has suitable Derby distance bottom is a multi-million dollar question.

[RICH]

As far a s the study 2000-2007

48 horses who ran big neg number did this next out  

O% tops

18.8 pairs

29.2 off

52.1 x\'d

Three races, no foundation, better than average chance to run an off race, low price, let him beat me, no thanks

[jbelfior]

He\'s got miler pedigree which is OK if you are loose on the lead at Gulfstream RACEWAY. Not sure that style gets it done at Churchill at 1 1/4 with 19 others in the gate.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

\"Even if War Pass takes the Wood, I believe BB could still be a Derby fave. If
War Pass tanks in the Wood, and some of the other contenders are not fully
cranked in their preps, BB could be IMO 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5\"


Bee,

On the other hand if WP bombs in the Wood and does not go to the Derby, that may leave BB loose on the lead.None of these 3yr olds have really shown to be want/need the lead types.Need WP, Pyro and Dennis of Cork to all run solid final preps to make the betting more interesting.WP defecting is a major blow to the possible race shape of the Derby.

Imagine Tricky and his entourage may be standing on the hallowed grounds of the winners circle at CD,ugh! If that happens will the Sheiks man be far away with a blank check?


Mike

[jimbo66]

I think we need to take a deep breath here and relax a bit.  This board is hyping BB even more than the press.  Big Brown isn\'t going to be 9-5 in the Derby, whether War Pass runs or not.   As a matter of fact, I would bet now that Pyro goes off the favorite.  As for loose on the lead, lets see the 20 entries, before we give BB the lead. I agree that no \"top contender\" besides WP are \"need the lead types\", but if you look at the fast derby paces and meltdowns of the past, it doesn\'t have to be the top contenders that cause the fast pace.  See songandaprayer in the Monarchos Derby win and Spanish something or other, trained by Biancone a few years back, in maybe the Giacomo derby?  

Big Brown will likely go into the derby as the fastest horse in the race, on figures.  However, there will be plenty of reasons for people to bet against him.  He will have a 3 race foundation, 1 turf race, 1 off the turf short field prep and then the Florida Derby.  He does not have a distance pedigree, although if you look at the last 10 derby winners, not many did have true distance pedigrees.  (of course after a few of them won, the monday morning qb\'s found some semblance of stamina in their pedigrees).  Off the top of my head, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all sported less than stellar stamina pedigrees, especially in their sire\'s lines.  Some will view Big Brown as a potential pace casualty, although he would seem to be rateable.  Dutrow has no real triple crown experience, at least that I can remember.  Plus, many people just don\'t bet the chalk in Derbies.  

Last point, which will seem to contradict my seemingly anti-big brown stance above.  Some of the after-race chatter on this board about Big Brown beating nothing in the Florida Derby is funny and borderline dumb.  First of all, where were those comments BEFORE the race.  Now that BB ran away and hid, it is too easy to say he beat nothing and it is also being a bit simple to believe it.  Give credit where credit is due.  No horse had won from post 12 going 1 1/8 since in the last 4 years at Gulfstream.  This horse ran 3 wide into the first time, setting a very very solid pace and then drew away in the stretch, albeit running a bit awkward, perhaps tiring from the huge effort.  He was just off the track record on a day where the track didn\'t look to be especially souped up.  He is a real good racehorse, who ran a real good prep race.  Not sure he will win the derby, but it won\'t be because he beat nothing in the Florida Derby.

Straddling the fence on BB,

Jim

[Michael D.]

Jim,

the field was ok. not sure many of them were suited for 9f this early though, and EF apparently had heat issues before the race. not a solid grade 1 field imo.

BB is real though, and while a bounce is possible, that won\'t be my call if everything goes according to plan over the next five weeks.

looking forward to watching DoC and Col John run on Sat.

[JR]

Remember Wheelaway? Better describes the way he left the track after the Belmont.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I hear you on Denis of Cork, as the zero he ran puts him in contention if he can build off it, but as already covered on this board, that was a pretty big jump up for him and not sure what type of race in his last prep sets him up for a big derby run.  I guess a slight regression would be OK.  

I am not as interested in Colonel John or any of the california horses for that matter.  I know Georgie Boy had a huge figure in a sprint, but I have to tell you that guessing how these poly/synthetic horses are going to run on dirt is absolutely no fun and to me takes a lot of handicapping out of play for the derby.  I know I am old school and potentially politically incorrect in thinking that all poly and synthetic surfaces are bad for racing, but to me, the derby is emblematic of the problem.  What do you do with all the california preps?  Say that a \"number is a number\" and assume the form will translate to dirt?  Guess at how the synthetic form will translate to dirt?  Throw out all the California horses?  I am going to do the latter, because I don\'t have any faith I can do the first two with any degree of accuracy.  However, I doubt there will be any value in my opinion from a gambling perspective, as I think the California horses will be underbet in the win pool for the same reason I won\'t bet them.  

Big Brown only got a 106 beyer.  I guess i have to take a closer look at the other races that day, because based on raw times, I would have guessed at a faster beyer figure.  Will be curious if JB agrees with Beyer\'s assessment of the track speed.  I guess Beyer must have given the fillies a very very slow figure in the race right before the Florida Derby or assumed a pretty good change in variant from one race to the next.

[jimbo66]

Wheelaway?  I am not sure I get that comparison.  He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and then came up empty in the lane, and then later they found some kind of injury.

Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane in the Florida Derby.  He was tired from setting a very fast pace, while wide, running further than he has run before, with very little foundation for a 1 1/8 race.  Perfectly acceptable.

Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.

[ronwar]

Jimbo66 wrote:

\"He does not have a distance pedigree\"

From Bloodhorse:

\"Although Big Brown is by Boundary, a sprinter who has sired only sprinters and milers, it must be noted that Boundary is by Danzig, and his dam, Edge, is by Damascus out of the top-class stakes winner Ponte Vecchio, a daughter of Round Table. Big Brown’s dam, Mien, is by Nureyev (by Northern Dancer), out of a Lear Fan (by Roberto) mare. And Big Brown is inbred top and bottom to Damascus, Round Table, and Northern Dancer, giving him a Classic-heavy dosage profile of 4-7-23-2-0 and a 1.67 dosage index, for all those who still follow dosage.\"

The absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jimbo,

I\'m watching the post race reports. To this point its still Dutrow talking happy talk.

I\'m fairly adept at picking up the little things in a race that may alter outcomes later. That said, I\'m not a horse whisperer. I\'ve watched that FlaDerby stretch run a few times now and I don\'t see anything to believe that something akin to infirmity is there. He wiggled out, wiggled in then wiggled out again, but the more I watch it the more I\'m convinced that this time its a case of a horse hearing a loud crowd for the first time. The crowd went absolutely apeshit. (Had to come up with a Youtube home video to see that.) I love the way that horse moves, even the way he moved in the last eighth.

Like you said, he came home drawing away in just under 13 seconds after that initial half mile.  

Theres lots of folks talking \"miler\" talk. Yeah....he\'ll get a mile.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wheelaway?  I am not sure I get that comparison.
> He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip
> right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and
> then came up empty in the lane, and then later
> they found some kind of injury.
>
> Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane
> in the Florida Derby.  He was tired from setting a
> very fast pace, while wide, running further than
> he has run before, with very little foundation for
> a 1 1/8 race.  Perfectly acceptable.
>
> Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.

[Silver Charm]

I think the filly race fell apart so it probably should be marked with a modest figure. A 106 for Big Brown considering the torrid pace he set is an outstanding figure. We will see how TG marks it but I believe it will be consistent with Beyer adding the ground loss factor.

None of these guys incorporate the \"gun factor\" into their figures so make your own judgement. This was a huge effort by Big Brown. He needs to hold his flesh and get over the CD track good. If he can\'t even do one of the two he is cooked. If he can do both he is gone. Game over.

There are no Spanish Chestnuts and Going Wilds that are appearing on the horizon to be entered Derby Day and sabotage the race and pace. War Pass couldn\'t out-sprint the horses at Tampa. How does he go with Big Brown.

Less than a week ago Ron Anderson and Jerry Brown guaranteed Pyro would win the Derby. Wonder what they are thinking now...............

[jimbo66]

Ronwar,

Like I said, if you dig enough, you can always find what you want to see in a horse\'s pedigree.  I will stick with the opening line of that pedigree analysis.  Boundary has sired only sprinters and milers.  

If he runs up the track, I will be \"right\", I guess.  If he wins, then the deeper pedigree analysis will be \"right\".

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> I\'m watching the post race reports. To this point
> its still Dutrow talking happy talk.
>
> I\'m fairly adept at picking up the little things
> in a race that may alter outcomes later. That
> said, I\'m not a horse whisperer. I\'ve watched that
> FlaDerby stretch run a few times now and I don\'t
> see anything to believe that something akin to
> infirmity is there. He wiggled out, wiggled in
> then wiggled out again, but the more I watch it
> the more I\'m convinced that this time its a case
> of a horse hearing a loud crowd for the first
> time. The crowd went absolutely apeshit. (Had to
> come up with a Youtube home video to see that.) I
> love the way that horse moves, even the way he
> moved in the last eighth.
>
> Like you said, he came home drawing away in just
> under 13 seconds after that initial half mile.  
>
> Theres lots of folks talking \"miler\" talk.
> Yeah....he\'ll get a mile.


from the Bloodhorse:

\"The only odd thing was jockey Kent Desormeaux pulling on the left rein a total of seven times after the colt appeared to drift out slightly. Even as he  drifted back toward the rail, Desormeaux kept pulling on the left rein. At one point, Desormeaux’s butt went flying off the left side of the horse’s body before popping back over the saddle. When it did, Big Brown became a bit unbalanced and dipped his head and shoulder for one stride. It didn’t affect the stretch run; it just made for an awkward moment. After hitting him one time, Desormeaux hand rode him the rest of the way, with the two perfectly back in sync. All in all, it was an excellent ride by Desormeaux, breaking sharply and getting the colt to the lead without losing too much ground, and then letting him settle in stride down the backstretch.\"


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44339

[Eight Belles]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ronwar,
>
> Like I said, if you dig enough, you can always
> find what you want to see in a horse\'s pedigree.
> I will stick with the opening line of that
> pedigree analysis.  Boundary has sired only
> sprinters and milers.  
>
> If he runs up the track, I will be \"right\", I
> guess.  If he wins, then the deeper pedigree
> analysis will be \"right\".


He just ran at 1 1/8 miles.  How he ran that race tells you far more than any pedigree will.  I wouldn\'t even bother looking at the pedigree.  I\'d look at the horse and how well he finished going 1 1/8 miles.