Wood Odds

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry says Texas Wildcatters chances of return to Zero are 50/50. He\'s getting \"goodish\" odds. Maybe off in the 5-1 range. Better than I thought, but I can\'t pull the trigger on him.

I\'m riding War Pass on the lead with some long bombers in there.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Dang it,

Richie was right, I got rabbitized.

Mott ought to be ashamed of himself.




Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> Jerry says Texas Wildcatters chances of return to
> Zero are 50/50. He\'s getting \"goodish\" odds. Maybe
> off in the 5-1 range. Better than I thought, but I
> can\'t pull the trigger on him.
>
> I\'m riding War Pass on the lead with some long
> bombers in there.

[MonmouthGuy]

Ouch.  TW ran more like Cowtown Cat than Bluegrass Cat.

[Blind Switch]

Nice one, Chuck. You had that one COLD. War Pass on the lead, faded to second, kinda-sorta bomber on top. Can never be too specific, don\'t you know.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'d have been ok without the rabbit blind.

But that didn\'t hurt it was a minor investment. What hurt was not having War Pass win and take serious Derby money. Mott is a traitor and should be hung.


Blind Switch Wrote:
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> Nice one, Chuck. You had that one COLD. War Pass
> on the lead, faded to second, kinda-sorta bomber
> on top. Can never be too specific, don\'t you know.

[fkach]

War Pass ran a very good race. IMO he was clearly much better than the winner, but it looked like Court Vision had a especially wide trip and may have beaten them both (given the pace) with a little luck. I\'ll have to watch the replay.

I agree with you though. It would have been much better for the Derby betting if War Pass won by a couple of lengths because he\'s not getting 10F if he gets any quality pressure.

[jbelfior]

WAR PASS ran with the bias. His effort was average.

It\'s doubtful there are any Derby threats coming out of the Wood. The Derby winner will be racing next weekend.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

Joe,

I didn\'t see anything resembling a bias yesterday. I thought horses won and ran well from everywhere on the track and from every position relative to their abilities. Perhaps I need to review the replays again.  

I thought War Pass was used really hard during at least the first 4F of the race. IMO, it\'s a matter of weighting his pace efforts vs. the extra ground loss of Tale of Ekati and Court Vision. To me, the pace effort is more significant because horses like ToE and CV are typically going to lose some ground relative to front runners but front runners don\'t typically have to put away rabbits. Besides, WP actually raced off the rail for at least part of the turn and lost a bit of ground himself.

None of this is saying he ran a great race or that anyone out of this race looks like a Derby winner (I do want to see some figures first). On a relative basis though, I think War Pass was the best horse yesterday (others may value ground loss more). I certainly don\'t like him at 10F Derby day though.

[miff]

Fkach,

The rail was not wonderful early, according to feedback from the jockeys. Zito told Velasquez to stay off the rail.


Mike

[alm]

War Pass revealed he is an ordinary 2 turn horse in Tampa and, aside from probably not liking the surface there, he reaffirmed his ordinariness in the Wood, where he had a surface he liked.  Zito should save a few bucks and not go to Churchill.  No way he wins in Louisville.

Tale of Ekati probably belongs in Louisville, but I don\'t think he has the ability to grind it out over better horses.  There weren\'t any in the Wood, for example, Court Vision had the race set up for him, but couldn\'t convert.  Ordinary too.  Pyro buried Tale...another insight?

His weaving in the stretch in Miami suggests Big Brown is hurting; he may get to Louisville, but maybe not in the kind of shape he needs to be to win.

This isn\'t a great year, but the California winner, Col. John ran the biggest race I\'ve seen, over a sharp if not great field.  He seemed to be spinning his wheels throughout much of the race yesterday, until deep stretch where he leveled off and then looked unreal in the final 8th.  He has to beat Pyro.

[Michael D.]

alm Wrote:
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> War Pass revealed he is an ordinary 2 turn horse
> in Tampa and, aside from probably not liking the
> surface there, he reaffirmed his ordinariness in
> the Wood, where he had a surface he liked.  Zito
> should save a few bucks and not go to Churchill.
> No way he wins in Louisville.
>
> Tale of Ekati probably belongs in Louisville, but
> I don\'t think he has the ability to grind it out
> over better horses.  There weren\'t any in the
> Wood, for example, Court Vision had the race set
> up for him, but couldn\'t convert.  Ordinary too.
> Pyro buried Tale...another insight?
>
> His weaving in the stretch in Miami suggests Big
> Brown is hurting; he may get to Louisville, but
> maybe not in the kind of shape he needs to be to
> win.
>
> This isn\'t a great year, but the California
> winner, Col. John ran the biggest race I\'ve seen,
> over a sharp if not great field.  He seemed to be
> spinning his wheels throughout much of the race
> yesterday, until deep stretch where he leveled off
> and then looked unreal in the final 8th.  He has
> to beat Pyro.



agree with the general analysis of the Wood.

ToE never had a shot in the La Derby though. that\'s why I bet him in the Wood. he got shut off at the start, and had trouble finding clear run down the back stretch. much better trip in the Wood after the series of gate works.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I saw no evidence of bias. Plenty of horses that were front end favorites (and some near odds on) lost on the lead.

Bustin Stones is certainly no evidence of bias.

If he makes the gate, War Pass figures to get a much less contested Derby pace and as fast as he has run I would not be surprised to see him be right there on the line.

The rabbit influenced that race greatly. I suppose theres a chance a rabbit will make its way to the Derby, but obviously Mott was a shogun and sent out his kamikazee. I think he should be hung for War Crimes. Congrats to those that foresaw the sacrifice, but thats the only reason a couple of those coots got close.

The good news was they didn\'t deep six a super. We\'ll get them in the big one.

 

jbelfior Wrote:
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> WAR PASS ran with the bias. His effort was
> average.
>
> It\'s doubtful there are any Derby threats coming
> out of the Wood. The Derby winner will be racing
> next weekend.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> The rabbit influenced that race greatly. I suppose
> theres a chance a rabbit will make its way to the
> Derby, but obviously Mott was a shogun and sent
> out his kamikazee. I think he should be hung for
> War Crimes. Congrats to those that foresaw the
> sacrifice, but thats the only reason a couple of
> those coots got close.
 

Spend A Chuck:

Highly unlikely that the rabbit gambit was Mott\'s call; I\'m sure the IEAH
people prevailed on their trainer to drop Invisible Light into the Wood as
a pace pusher.

You mention sacrifice,and it should be mentioned that Invisible Light, who was
purchased for $650K, was hard used for 1/2 mile, was passed by the entire field
and ended up getting beaten in excess of 60 lengths (as I like to say, IL was
passing the Home Depot when the winner was crossing the finish line, but if you
haven\'t been to Ozone Park in the last few years the reference will be lost on
you).

Will Invisible Light ever recover from an effort like that?

Some might consider it \"gamesmanship\", but to me, its poor horsemanship,
and I do not think Mott was behind it.