The Pletcher Empire-R.I.P.

[Silver Charm]

I think yesterday pretty much signaled it is over.

We probably will not be hearing Donna Barton is riding his stable pony like we kept hearing with Bob Baffert on NBC yesterday. T Pletch at least will still show up at his barn and work hard.

He just might find only half the usual amount of horses and help there when he arrives. These last two weeks were big days. Run the best you got kinda days.

T Pletch and Co. laid a major egg. The signs were there last summer when the 2YOs were so bad. But this bad this quick demands major day rate cuts or drops in class or the vans will be lining up.

Hard work will keep him treading water. At least he will not end up like Baffert who I understand is on this weeks episode of \"Without a Trace\"

But if he ever does at least people will be out looking................

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

When Congress got \"involved\", it got the abusers in Thoroughbred Racing to re-examine their priorities. Plech has slipped due to behavior modification. He knew full well many considered him Target Number One.

If he plays fair, he\'ll be a decent trainer, but thats all he ever was. I can\'t believe others believed otherwise.

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think yesterday pretty much signaled it is
> over.
>
> We probably will not be hearing Donna Barton is
> riding his stable pony like we kept hearing with
> Bob Baffert on NBC yesterday. T Pletch at least
> will still show up at his barn and work hard.
>
> He just might find only half the usual amount of
> horses and help there when he arrives. These last
> two weeks were big days. Run the best you got
> kinda days.
>
> T Pletch and Co. laid a major egg. The signs were
> there last summer when the 2YOs were so bad. But
> this bad this quick demands major day rate cuts or
> drops in class or the vans will be lining up.
>
> Hard work will keep him treading water. At least
> he will not end up like Baffert who I understand
> is on this weeks episode of \"Without a Trace\"
>
> But if he ever does at least people will be out
> looking................

[Silver Charm]

Look I\'m not predicting a Bear Stearns type run on the bank but stall space in the Pletcher barns are starting to looking like So Fla Condos.

Either empty or slums.

Also there is no truth to the rumor that yesterday the Alfred E. Neumann bobblehead doll (Battaglia) who works for NBC wanted to scream out.

\"Bob (Baffert) I am wearing your underwear\".

[TGJB]

I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional hearing (there were stirrings well before that), but it does look like something is afoot. Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so to speak) in California. From my point of view, I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.

Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to get big jump-ups.

All of which (among many other things) raises some questions about Big Brown in the Derby.

[fkach]

Texas Wildcatter was simply dreadful. I have a much more limited view on \"bouncing\" than people here (thinking many are trip related issues), but this was certainly a good candidate. He was so dreadful something has to be amiss. Either that, or carrying me on his back 2 races in a row was simply too much. ;-) If he would have won or finished second (I keyed him and Tale of Ekati primarily with each other and also over Court Vision) I would be in a much better mood today.

Besides the 3 trainers you mentioned that are still moving horses up, there are a few newer and lower profile trainers that have been doing the same thing in NY. So whatever was going on is still widespread. Just the names are changing (as has been the case in the past).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

At this time of year, I\'m rating these horses with TFigs, as I always do. I didn\'t cash that race either. I should have, but thats the way it goes.

I don\'t know what you gave Big Brown, but I thought it was a big effort. Most visually impressive effort I\'ve seen since Sinister Minister\'s Bluegrass/Afleet Alex\'s Ark. (Conceding that some efforts on the old Keeneland were ethereal.)

The pace of the Derby is getting interesting, especially if Bob Black Jack goes. That said, I think Big Brown quick footed in the Fladerby because he had to. Both the horrid post and the earnings requirement made him scoot. I think he can rate. Big Brown figures to be the favorite. Beating him might make very big balloons,but he sure looked impressive to me.



TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional
> hearing (there were stirrings well before that),
> but it does look like something is afoot.
> Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well
> (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the
> hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has
> become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so
> to speak) in California. From my point of view,
> I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.
>
> Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to
> get big jump-ups.
>
> All of which (among many other things) raises some
> questions about Big Brown in the Derby.

[congaree1]

Any chance he ran the 0 because he loved the slop and Giant Moon ran a 27 because he hated it. It goes on and on in the battle, to understand this game. Jerry said that TW had a 50/50 chance to pair. Based on what? TW was off a 4 point top that he ran in the slop, big deal! He came into the race 4 points better than anything he had ever run. IMO all a sheet does is let us no if the horse fits in a race. I truely believe their is no way in telling what a horse is going to do based on the sheet, it is a total guess. I can not think of any single thing that is more taxing on the brain then horse racing. I believe all players are nuts in one way or another, to keep playing, but I guess it is the challege of the sport that brings us back for more!

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional
> hearing (there were stirrings well before that),
> but it does look like something is afoot.
> Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well
> (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the
> hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has
> become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so
> to speak) in California. From my point of view,
> I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.
>
> Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to
> get big jump-ups.
>
> All of which (among many other things) raises some
> questions about Big Brown in the Derby.



Jerry,

re TW - you put too much emphasis on the slop fig, and the horse stopped like he was shot in that race, thus increasing the chance of a bounce.

just one guy\'s opinion.

[BitPlayer]

CTC -

I think its a close question whether Bob Black Jack has the graded earnings to get in.  Depending on who you include as still Derby-intended, he\'s pretty near the bubble, and there\'s still quite a bit of money up for grabs in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, and Lexington. Even the Holy Bull might move someone into the top 20.

Further, assuming (based on the close finishes in the Wood and SA Derby and the winner\'s rail trip in the Illinois Derby) that none of yesterday\'s races came up very fast figure-wise, I\'d think most people who have the earnings are going to take a shot.  Maybe even a filly or two.

[fkach]

>Any chance he ran the 0 because he loved the slop and Giant Moon ran a 27 because he hated it<

IMO off tracks are the source of a lot of figures that don\'t get duplicated, but Texas Wildcatter was a steadily improving horse that was working like he was set for a lifetime peak just prior to the Gotham. In addition, there was nothing easy about his trip in the Gotham. He made a somewhat premature 3W brush to the lead in a lively paced race and got nailed late by a last to first horse with a good trip.  

Could he be a slop freak?  

Possibly.  

However, I think we learned less than nothing about that yesterday. Had he run a figure in the range of his effort prior to the Gotham it would be easier to conclude he simply liked the slop. However, he ran a terrible race. That says that something is wrong with him.

[TGJB]

First of all, I have found that inner track \"slop\" isn\'t a whole lot different than inner track fast. And I don\'t think he was losing ground to anyone but Visionaire in the stretch, by memory.

But if you think that he just liked slop, wouldn\'t that effort be less taxing, and the most likely result be just going back to his previous level?

He bounced, all right.  Maybe a lot of horses will start doing that again (after a brief hiatus of 5 years or so).

Other comments, now that the futures have closed, re BB-- aside from the huge effort making him a candidate to fall apart, (especially since he has a history of unsoundness), I have watched the stretch run of the Fla Derby 5 times, and he was already bearing in when took a bad step midstretch (watch the horse\'s head drop), immediately after which he bore in more, abruptly. I make him 50/50 to run in the Derby, 25% to run in two TC races.

War Pass-- I\'m not a pace guy, but has anyone ever run faster than 46 going two turns at Aqu, let alone held together to get a decent figure (my guess is around a 2)? I think this horse is being buried prematurely, and fkach, I\'m surprised, I would think you would love him. With the $ cutoff, they don\'t get to enter rabbits in the Derby.

[fkach]

TGJB,

Re War Pass, I am still studying/comparing the fractions to the other route race and watching the replays, but based on my preliminary analysis I agree with you regarding the pace. It was blazing. I do think he ran a very big race. I thought he was clearly the best horse in the Wood.

I\'ve had one problem with him this spring.

I thought he got away with a lot of loose leads as a 2YO and wanted to see him tested prior to the Derby. IMO some horses don\'t respond well to the pressures of the Derby first time (big field, duel for lead, getting roughed up etc..) IMO he was being over hyped before he satisfied me that he could face tough pressure and get 10F.  

Big Brown is of higher quality than the rabbit that Mott sent out yesterday. Even though I don\'t expect Big Brown to commit suicide, it\'s tough for me to imagine that the Derby pace is going to be slow. BB has a similar pace profile. When I look at WP\'s tendency to back up in the stretch, his pedigree, the likely Derby pace, yesterday\'s final furlong etc... I think he\'s very likely to throw in the towel at the 1/8th pole - especially if Big Brown runs another big effort and puts him away at the quarter pole. I also can\'t imagine him putting away Big Brown and holding off the cavalry. It\'s going to be a very tough task for him even though IMO he ran much better than his final time figure indicates.

[congaree1]

I just looked and TAP  winning at a 21% clip with 48% of his runners hitting the board. Pretty good IMO. But I believe TW and Circular Quay both bounced of efforts yesterday!

[ajkreider]

Speaking of rabbits, if WP and BB make it to the Derby, looks like there could be a three-way battle for the lead.

The trainer of the Ill. Derby winner:

“I couldn’t help but think about that,” Roussel said of War Emblem’s front running 20-1 Derby upset. “War Pass, Big Brown, it doesn’t matter. We’re going to the front.”

(from kentuckyderby.com)

[alm]

Jerry, it\'s strange that no one else is reacting to the BB Florida Derby stretch run problem...I agree completely with you...and it\'s not just a matter of his taking the physical problem into the Derby...the real problem will have to do with how hard he can train FOR the Derby...my observation is that just about anyone who ever had a Derby type horse goes all out to run in it, regardless of the problems they have.

So I expect to see BB in the race and I expect to see him nowhere at the finish.

As for War Pass, he may have had all sorts of excuses (particularly the rabbit) but he still doesn\'t look like an effective 2 turn horse.  I don\'t care what kind of numbers he\'s running...at this level they are all so close anyway that I\'ll go with a horse that can finish.

Right now it\'s Colonel John or Pyro.  The rest are pretenders.