Synthetic to Derby

[fkach]

TGJB,

I\'m not sure if it\'s possible, but if you could provide any data at all on how horses with no dirt experience (all synthetic or synthetic and turf experience) are doing on dirt first time out I think a lot of your customers would appreciate it (actual any data would be helpful). I can\'t be the only one that\'s struggling with how to deal with the California 3YOs in the Derby.

My original intention was to simply toss them all out and hope for the best - figuring it wasn\'t too likely there would be a lot of overlays among them.

However, yesterday, horses like Heatseeker and Zenyatta who I considered very vulnerable to being out of the exotics both ran big races. I feel a lot less comfortable with that strategy now. ;-)

[BitPlayer]

fkach –

The weekend\'s events seem to have narrowed your problem, at least as it relates to this year\'s Derby, to Colonel John (although Bob Black Jack is still a possibility).  Since he was bet heavily in the futures pool and is in the top 3 on most pundits\' lists of Derby contenders, you\'re not going to get any value from including Colonel John.  You\'ve got to either stick to your guns and toss him or find your value elsewhere.

On the side of tossing him:

I note that both Zenyatta and Heatseeker got wide trips Saturday at Oaklawn, thus keeping them away from potentially problematic kickback.  That strategy may not be viable for a closer in a 20-horse field.

Winstar sent Colonel John to California.  They must have thought that synthetics would suit him.

Gomez and Anderson chose to ride Court Vision on Saturday rather than stay on Colonel John.  (I\'m not particularly fond of this argument.  I think the choice may have related to other mounts lined up at the Big A on Saturday and Gomez\'s transition back to the East for the summer.  Also, Winstar may also have preferred to give Colonel John back to Nakatani rather than find a new rider for Court Vision.)

If you are looking for the fastest dirt horse, it\'s most efficient to test the candidates on dirt.  To explain using an analogy: if you were looking for fast human sprinters, you wouldn\'t measure them by having them compete in the long jump.  Admittedly, the fastest guy would probably rate high in the long jump, and (since the athletic ability required is similar) might well be the best long jumper, but you\'d rather compare them by having them run the hundred.

On the flip side:

I still hypothesize (without meaningful data to support my hypothesis) that the TG scale may be a bit narrower on synthetics than it is on dirt, so that when top horses move from synthetic to dirt (and they handle the move) their top figs improve.  Conversely, when they move from dirt to synthetics, they are unlikely to reproduce their dirt tops (even when they handle the move).  If my hypothesis is right, then in preparing the statistics you are asking for, it might alter the outcome if TG were to throw claimers in with the stakes and allowance horses.

[fkach]

Thanks for the thoughts. Lots of good points.

I also lean towards the possibility that the scale may be narrower on synthetics relative to dirt, but I doubt it\'s as severe as on turf. That would make for difficult comparisons from time to time if true.

[toppled]

I\'m wondering if anyone has had success using the TGI #s when projecting between dirt & poly.  I tried some races on Saturday, projecting the horse\'s #s being better or worse based on the sire\'s TGI.  I didn\'t have much success for the limited races I played, but the sample wasn\'t statistically valid.

[TGJB]

I don\'t think you will have much success in directly applying the TGI (taking a 2 point difference in TGI and adding it to a horse\'s top, etc.). I use it in terms of figures to like the surface, or does not-- great example last weekend was Proud Spell in the Ashland. Proud Citizen\'s synth runners have been terrible, so I threw PS out-- and managed not to cash anyway, which took some work.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I believe a great angle on Poly is discount/toss favored horses that earned their top figs on dirt. But, I still believe its finding a needle in a haystack. The only predictability is chaos, and I\'m not going wager wishing, hoping and praying.

The Bluegrass will be a fun race to watch, but its not gonna prove much. Colonel John lost Gomez to Court Vision? Whodofthunkit!

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think you will have much success in
> directly applying the TGI (taking a 2 point
> difference in TGI and adding it to a horse\'s top,
> etc.). I use it in terms of figures to like the
> surface, or does not-- great example last weekend
> was Proud Spell in the Ashland. Proud Citizen\'s
> synth runners have been terrible, so I threw PS
> out-- and managed not to cash anyway, which took
> some work.

[miff]

Chuck,

FYI, Ron Anderson is a Raggie.Maybe Gomez felt/sensed something when he rode Col John? Hard to understand the selection.Don\'t know if he\'ll dirt but Col John looked like a long striding stayer on Saturday.


Mike

[MO]

I\'ve seen drunks run a straighter line than Bob Black Jack did Saturday.......

[alm]

I agree with you completely re: Col John.

Visually he seemed not to like the track for most of the race.  He was on top of it, not digging in.  He leveled off only at the very end and then he was catching tiring horses.

I toss the horses he beat completely out of the Derby because they were tiring and leave him in, big time.  Also and maybe more importantly, he is bred for the dirt.  I am going to assume he ran his best on poly, but it wasn\'t the best you will see on the dirt.

As for an earlier post about sending him to CA because they felt he might like poly better, I don\'t think it\'s true.  If he were mine I would have sent him to a poly environment if I believed there was any truth in the fact it was easier on horses.  I would have done it to preserve him for the big dance.

[fkach]

>I\'ve seen drunks run a straighter line than Bob Black Jack did Saturday.......<

You obviously never saw me on a Saturday night 25 years ago.

BBJ was doing his cha cha through the stretch with my money on him. :-(

[jbelfior]

Re: COLONEL JOHN


I don\'t have the data to support, so I\'m going on visual experience. Seems as if the TIZNOW offspring have done very well on the poly/synthethic tracks. This is obvious to anyone following the game closely.

What may not be as obvious is that although TIZNOW was quite successful negotiating 1 1/4 in Grade 1 company, his offspring appear to prefer it shorter. WELL ARMED may be one example to note in his transistion to dirt. No excuse to not hold second other than not being able to get the distance.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

MO,

It\'s the poly/synthetic \"swerve\". A different level of exhaustion seems to hit horses the farther they run on synthetics/poly.I am told that a horse gets fitter on synthetics.This could mean that dirt to synthetic runners are at a conditioning disadvantage first time over it.It may also follow that horses coming from synthetics/poly,that can handle dirt, have a conditioning edge.

Time will tell and the stat brainiacs are already compiling the data on this stuff.

Mike

[miff]

Alm,

Co-owner of Win Star, Bill Casner loves synthetics and credits the surface for the success/health of his horse.Col John is the only Cali horse that appears to be a Derby threat but Gomez taking off this one for a slow plodder(Court Vision) is very strange.

I think I now know why Robby Alvarado bailed on Dennis of Cork. He must have known/sensed something. Every jockey on the planet wants to win the derby and taking off a horse with a legit shot seems unimaginable.


Mike

[marcus]

i\'ve been wondering myself recently if more horses are boring -in and boring-out these days or if i\'m just noticing it more - along with more horses which seemingly appear to be all over the place in the lane on the synth/poly tracks  .

[Uncle Buck]

If memory serves, there was a LOT of \"synthetic swerve\" in last year\'s Blue Grass. Street Sense tended to swerve a lot on poly and not so much on dirt