Synthetic to Derby

[alm]

I appreciate the insight re: Gomez.  He seems to make good choices, for sure.  However, isn\'t it possible that he was only thinking he had a better shot at a purse in NYC, as opposed to the SoCal race.  Personally, I thought Court Vision had a better shot in the Wood than Col John had in the SA Derby.  Maybe Garrett was as wrong as I was.

As for the previous post re: Tiznow offspring...a sire can pass along the ability to negotiate different surfaces, for sure, as this is tied into a foal\'s physiology, but distance ability comes from a combination of factors that are influenced mostly by the broodmare (and her genetic contribution.)  That\'s why the Phipps family used to exclusively breed mares that won at 9 furlongs and above.

Col. John may or may not handle the transition to dirt, but I think he will handle the distance of the Derby.

[alm]

I hate to belabor this point, but it is consistent with what you are observing in horses weaving along the poly tracks: the Equix biomechanic guys measure all parts of a horse.  Grads of their program have observed that the length of the hind tibia influences horses\' ability to run on different surfaces.

To put it in the most basic terms: the longer the tibia the less likely a horse can handle grass, slop (and probably poly tracks.)  If forces them to wobble in the hind end.  This may in fact be what you are seeing when they weave along on poly tracks.

Shorter tibias are better on grass, slop and possibly poly.  Longer tibias on dirt.

Miff once noted that grass horses are slower on dirt.  He\'s probably right, if you accept the tibia analysis.  They don\'t have the same length hind leg (regardless of the fact they have superior traction on grass, etc.) so they don\'t have the same spring from behind and probably by extension the same speed as a dirt horse with longer tibias.  

I didn\'t bet on Col John in the SA Derby, so my observations of how he handled the track are unbiased.  He seemed not to like it, traveling above the surface for most of the race.  Only at the end, in the final 1/8th did he level off, drop his head, and fire.  He caught tiring horses.  If he takes to the dirt, my guess is he moves up several lengths on the transition in the KY Derby.

[imallin]

Santa Anita and Hollywood are running on \'cushion\' track, although Santa Anita\'s current surface is some combination of Pro Ride, cushion and mystery ingredients. Santa Anita\'s surface plays much like a regular dirt surface to my eye. Polytrack (Del Mar, Keeneland) are completely different surfaces. The way i like to handicap this transition to dirt is that good horses are good horses and run on anything. If a quality horse throws in a clunker at Del Mar or Keeneland, i just put a line thru it and go back to other factors to determine if i think this animal is going to run a big race in his next start. If a horse runs a clunker on cushion, i\'d be a little more concerned that there\'s something inherently wrong with the horse, as opposed to him not liking cushion.

Also, i think you need to let price be your guide. If Colonel John was 4-1 on Derby day, you might want to toss him and say he\'s a synthetic performer. If he\'s 12-1, you might want to swing the bat and hope he moves UP on dirt.

To answer a few more on this thread, the Bob Black Jack \'weave\' had to do with the jockey being frightened by the unusual stride of Bob Black Jack. BBJ is an accident waiting to happen, he\'s built like a cheap claimer.

I was salivating at the thought of betting Zenyatta. She was WAY more impressive visually than her Beyer figs indicated. She won like a horse with 110 Beyers, yet her numbers were all under a hundred, that\'s why she paid 5 and change instead of being 3-5 like she should have been. Getting 6 lbs from GP didn\'t hurt either.

My synthetic rule of thumb is that all horses will run to their abilities on dirt, but some won\'t like synthetic as opposed to horses who run lights out on synthetic and can\'t handle dirt.

If Colonel John bombs and runs up the track in the Derby, i believe it will be more of a product of the California horses stinking as opposed to the california horses being good and CJ just not \'liking\' dirt for one reason or another.

Also, i dont think there\'s a hard and fast rule of how to determine if a synthetic performer will translate to dirt...each horse is different, you need to watch how each horse \'runs\' on tape to see if you can figure it out.

Last year, Zayat stables took their runners OUT of Del Mar because the nature of the track \'took their speed away\'. Those runners had very quick legs and strides and their quickness was taken away by polytrack. The horses who won at Del Mar were \'stayers\' who had the ability to gallop at a steady rate and just hold their ground, while the quick types of Zayat burned themselves out.

Also, recently at Santa Anita, speed isn\'t all that great. If you win wire to wire or win pressing a fast pace, you\'re good, especially in a route race.

[fkach]

>I was salivating at the thought of betting Zenyatta. She was WAY more impressive visually than her Beyer figs indicated. She won like a horse with 110 Beyers, yet her numbers were all under a hundred, that\'s why she paid 5 and change instead of being 3-5 like she should have been. Getting 6 lbs from GP didn\'t hurt either. <

I agree with this part, but I have to think that switching to dirt for the first time is a negative \"in general\".  

It may be possible to identify a subset of horses in that category based on visual observation, pedigree, work outs on dirt etc... that will run equally well or even better on dirt first time just as it is possible to do so with other surface switches. But without that specific knowledge about a horse, IMO you almost have to assume the added question mark is a negative.  I would have discounted Zenyatta\'s chances in that race somewhat had I played the race.

[imallin]

I\'m not sure its a negative only because the synthetic surfaces are supposedly \'deeper\' and more tiring, which means horses coming to dirt will be more \'fit\' when they race on the lighter \'paved\' surface. But, you\'re right, its all a guessing game, that\'s why you need to let price be your guide.

[fkach]

It\'s definitely a guessing game for me because I do very little handicapping outside of NY other than major stakes. So I have much less experience to draw on than other people.

[marcus]

thanks for bringing that aspect of bio-mechanics up again - it\'s beginning to sink in . i can relate it in some way to pocket billiards when stroking the ball from the elbow down to the forearm area as opposed to from the shoulder increases accuracy immensely .

if these horse are having difficulty controlling sway (even when not fatigued ),will breeders now attempt to breed horses more appropriately for the new synth surfaces ( with a shorter tibia) to increase traction and performance .  

perhaps the early numbers for breakdowns on poly don\'t jump off the paper in support of that surface - as promised , due to imo this \"unforeseen\" issue as one possible reason ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

My sense is that by winning out in the West, Colonel John is going to get some significant Kentucky Derby play.

My general impression of Poly is that it brings all of the horses closer together. It takes away from a good horse and it gives what it takes to an inferior horse. The more a horse trains and races on it the better he usually fairs.

Last year in the Derby, we didn\'t have horses entered with their entire past performances exclusive to Poly like we have this year. The significant Poly specialists were Dominican and Zanjero. They had a nice duel among themselves but were never a threat to factor in the exotics. They also went off at nice odds.

This year, the predominant Poly horse is going to be Colonel John and perhaps the Bluegrass winner. John could go off in the 8-1 range. I have to say for my Derby bet, I\'d much prefer a horse underperforming on Poly than a horse excelling upon it.

They won\'t be running on Poly in that Derby.

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If memory serves, there was a LOT of \"synthetic
> swerve\" in last year\'s Blue Grass. Street Sense
> tended to swerve a lot on poly and not so much on
> dirt

[P-Dub]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My sense is that by winning out in the West,
> Colonel John is going to get some significant
> Kentucky Derby play.

Brilliant. A horse never running worse than second, wins the Santa Anita Derby, getting significant Kentucky Derby Play. Who woulda thunk??  
>
> My general impression of Poly is that it brings
> all of the horses closer together. It takes away
> from a good horse and it gives what it takes to an
> inferior horse. The more a horse trains and races
> on it the better he usually fairs.

Agreed. But Del Mar aint running right now, last race there was last September when these horses were 2 YOs.  Keeneland runs a 2 week meet. Why would Polytrack have any significance with regards to this year\'s Derby?? Only 1 major Derby prep will be run over Poly (this week\'s Blue Grass).
>
> Last year in the Derby, we didn\'t have horses
> entered with their entire past performances
> exclusive to Poly like we have this year. The
> significant Poly specialists were Dominican and
> Zanjero. They had a nice duel among themselves but
> were never a threat to factor in the exotics. They
> also went off at nice odds.

Please tell us which horses have raced exclusively on Poly. Colonel John??  He\'s run over Cushion Track. Despite being a synthetic surface, Cushion is nothing like Poly.
>
> This year, the predominant Poly horse is going to
> be Colonel John and perhaps the Bluegrass winner.
> John could go off in the 8-1 range. I have to say
> for my Derby bet, I\'d much prefer a horse
> underperforming on Poly than a horse excelling
> upon it.

Please note the races where Colonel John has raced over Poly.  
>
> They won\'t be running on Poly in that Derby.

Again, thanks for informing us. We had no idea.

Why do some of you insist on treating Cushion Track the same as Polytrack??  The 2 surfaces are not the same. I understand many prefer handicapping dirt surfaces, many have a profound dislike for any synthetic surface. However,to dismiss a horse specifically because he\'s raced over \"synthetic\" surfaces is silly. Tiago, Zenyatta, Heatseeker, Sierra Sunset are just a few who have shipped from California to run very well over a dirt surface.

Are you telling me that the races run over the polytrack surfaces at Keeneland and Del Mar resemble the racing at HP, SA, and the other Cushion/Tapeta tracks?? Horses have won on the lead, stalking, and closing over Cushion/Tapeta surfaces.  Can you say that about Poly??  Can you compare the running styles, or fractional times between these surfaces?? No. Completely different.

Despite there being a healthy dose of East Coast bias around these parts (I\'m referring to posters, not JB), to dismiss California horses due to the surface is premature. Well meant California horses have done well in the Derby.  And before you cherry pick the ones that haven\'t, I can do the same for the hyped up horses from the East.

Colonel John has done nothing wrong. Never worse than second if memory serves me. No, he won\'t be a bomb like Giacomo ( a California based Derby winning horse). But to summarily dismiss him, based solely on the fact he\'s raced over Cushion Track, is ridiculous. Keep him out of the exotics at your own risk.

[miff]

Hi Paul,

One of the reasons that Cali synthetic runners are being dismissed is because they had slow figs compared to their rivals when shipping.I mentioned that I felt some of the runners you show, esp Col John and Zenyatta, looked faster than the figs they were given. They are outrunning their figs which leads me to believe that you have to look closely at synthetic Cali figs.I also think there may be a better bottom in horses running on syn/poly and if the horse can handle  the switch to dirt, well...

I do have data which shows that synthetic is also like turf and well handled by many turf runners(as is poly). Speed is NOT nearly as good on synt as it was on the former dirt tracks. In fact speed is not much better on synthetics than on poly, at least thats what the stats show and what I generally see.


Col John is a very nice horse, not real fast yet but a stayer for sure.Assuming good health for Pyro and Big Brown, I think Col John is a distant third best if he dirts. Good Luck.

Mike

P.S. Giacomo was a slow rat, derby winner or not and I would not take credit for him being from the west coast,Paul, if I were you, hee hee!

[MO]

Interesting.....

Well, a key handicapping factor for every Derby is who is working out/handling the CD surface well, and it likely will be again this year.

[alm]

This has been a great series of posts.  Very helpful.

My point about Col John is that he may not be running his best on the syn track.  He may be a very good horse who is just getting the job done under conditions he does not prefer.

We will see.

[P-Dub]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting.....
>
> Well, a key handicapping factor for every Derby is
> who is working out/handling the CD surface well,
> and it likely will be again this year.

MO,

Good point MO.  I think Colonel John will take to it.  No evidence,  just an opinion. Don\'t know what JB gave him for the SA Derby, but my guess is that he\'s still slower than several. Could make his price higher than it should, but who knows.  I know one thing.....Big Brown won\'t be on my tickets.  Too fast Derby prep, little foundation.....aren\'t these the type of horses - favotites with issues - that we as handicappers love to bet against?? And if they do, we just look for another opportunity??  This is one of Chuckles\' favorite \"tenets\".

Miff wrote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\"Hi Paul,

One of the reasons that Cali synthetic runners are being dismissed is because they had slow figs compared to their rivals when shipping.I mentioned that I felt some of the runners you show, esp Col John and Zenyatta, looked faster than the figs they were given. They are outrunning their figs which leads me to believe that you have to look closely at synthetic Cali figs.I also think there may be a better bottom in horses running on syn/poly and if the horse can handle the switch to dirt, well...

I do have data which shows that synthetic is also like turf and well handled by many turf runners(as is poly). Speed is NOT nearly as good on synt as it was on the former dirt tracks. In fact speed is not much better on synthetics than on poly, at least thats what the stats show and what I generally see.


Col John is a very nice horse, not real fast yet but a stayer for sure.Assuming good health for Pyro and Big Brown, I think Col John is a distant third best if he dirts. Good Luck.

Mike

P.S. Giacomo was a slow rat, derby winner or not and I would not take credit for him being from the west coast,Paul, if I were you, hee hee!\"



Mike,

Just from memeory, but it seems like Cal horses can at times outrun their numbers when shipping out. Also, many Nor Cal horses have wired the field on the Tapeta. So have Cushion Track runners.  I\'m thinking just like a dirt track, the track can be maintenanced in a way that a certain running style can be advantageous.  I just think that Cushion/Tapeta is a much fairer surface than Poly. I guess my main point is that it is indeed a 4th surface (dirt, turf, Poly) and people referring to it as Poly are just plain wrong.

Pyro/Big Brown/Colonel John:

You get the first 2, I\'ll take Colonel John. Best finish of those 3 gets a beverage from the other whenever I make my first trip to Saratoga.


Got a little Chihuahua puppy from a resuce group last December.  I tell her she looks like a rat.  I still love her.  Besides...Giacomo is my father\'s middle name.  Slow rat or not, he paid a nice mutuel..no??   Hey, Uncle Buck and I have to stand up for our West Coast hosses......we\'ll take the \"slow rat\" if he wins the Derby.  You have written this description many times......I still get a chuckle (no pun intended) every time.  Thanks for your reply.