Not sure why absence of a two year old race is relevant factor in the case of Big Brown -- he broke his maiden at Saratoga around two turns against a maiden field where they tend to have relatively strong fields (his maiden purse was $63k). One would say that a two turn win on Labor Day of one\'s two year old year is a positive rather than a negative.
Also, in my view, looking at what factors other derby winners had and other derby losers had is handicapping by anecdote rather than using truer trends and tendancies. The number of modern derbies run is such a small sampling that any statistic is nothing more than an anecdote. Although Curlin did not win the derby, he did beat 17 horses in the derby and his first race was in February. I am not suggesting this means anything. Just tossing one anecdote at another anecdote. I would say that the only thing that makes the derby different is its distance, the huge traffic caused by 20 horses, and the fact there is such a crush of humanity that horses that are easily spooked can come apart.
In terms of the special derby elements, I normally think breeding is very important for getting the extra distance but in modern times most of the horses are poorly bred for distance so you have a bunch of middle distance horses competing at the wrong distance for them. Breeding still needs to be considered, but I would be careful not to overweight it. I do think experience is very important for helping a horse get that last furlong or two as well as dealing with the 20 horses. On this score, maybe somebody could say that Big Brown has not had any adversity and nobody knows how he will react when he is hooked late or when he has to deal with being trapped or knocked over. however, that question has little to do with the fact that he only had one 2 year old race and a lot more to do with the fact he has only had 3 races total -- and with the exception of the Florida Derby, his races were basically trouble-free walkovers. In terms of the crush of humanity issue, he did win his debut at Saratogaa on Labor Day which can have more people than tracks normally get these days and Florida Derby Day is a big day in a hot clime. Of course, one needs to see how he reacts on the day of the race, but this horse does seem to be able to handle large crowds.
On balance, the fact that he has yet to prove himself in adverse conditions is a possible knock against him. However, post 12 at Gulfstream was one type of adversity and he handled that fine and also we have to remember it is not like he has faced adversity and failed -- he just hasn\'t had the opportunity yet. We will need to see what the Derby field comes up like and determine what kind of trip he will get, what kind of a trip his chief adversaries will get, and what we can expect to be unfolding in the stretch. While I, too, like to throw out heavily bet horses, it is not a good practice to do without undertaking a lot of thought first.
In terms of breeding, by current standards and in my view, he is no worse than a lot of the horses than run in the Derby. He does have Damascus and Round Table on both the top and the bottom which help somewhat. Additionally, he has Forli and Roberto on his mother\'s side (the mother even has Lauren Stich\'s favorite feature -- she calls it the Rasmussen Factor -- because she had the influential dam Rough Shod on both her top and bottom). We will need to see how his competitors are bred, but, to me, his pedigree is no worse than the usual derby pedigree these days in my view. It is not as if he has a sprinter\'s pedigree and they are trying to stretch him. He has more of a middle distance pedigree.
