2008 Kentucky Derby: This Big Brown Hype is Quite Ridiculous

[belveondarockz]

I really want us to look at this and use some common sense.  Im just going to take the last 3 years and look at the horses that ran a zero or negative number the race prior to the derby and could not win on the big day..  Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint, brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini.  The amount of horses on here is just staggering. Looking at this what do you think Big Brown will do? I can tell you right now he will not be on my pick 3, 4 or 6 ticket this year ESPECIALLY at the 4-1 odds.

Taking all into Consideration, this year looks kind of like last year to me. Looks like we have several horses that will go into this race off of top efforts and bounce, horses that havent really developed fully yet or horses just too slow.  Now we can truthfully see that by saying that of last year we can probably say the same thing about every year but heres where it looks the same:  Street Sense last year needed a few races to be able to fire his matching 2 year old effort from the breeders cup.  Now im not in any way a fan of War Pass but doesnt this seem to you all like an eerily similar situation?  This is the Champ. Period.  Street Sense lost to Dominican at Keeneland.. but what happened Derby Day?  The Champ Prevailed. Domican got what like 16th?! Taking all these factors from the previous year and instead of debating whether horses will bounce, pair up, forge forward, or run an off race shouldnt we just use our heads and say.. Umm War Pass has run a negative 3.5 AS A 2 YEAR OLD?!  He is rounding into form ya kno? (toss out the tampa bay race imo). He ran a few off races who cares.  The best part is that youll probably get 8 to 1 or better for a horse capable of that tremendous effort.  No one is talking about Triple Crown this year but if War Pass does win the Derby, whos going to stop him?  Street Sense last year didnt win the triple crown and in hinesight got dethrowned (by my opinions) on Preakness Day by that unseasoned freak of nature Curlin (who wound up being the Breeders Cup Champ even after losing the belmont stakes to a girl and the haskell).  Case in point is that Champions find out a way to win and War Pass is clearly the horse to beat in my opinion.

[pres711]

I just don\'t believe he can get a mile and a 1/4.  His wood impressed me but I think he was all out to get 11/8.

[belveondarockz]

did you see those fractions?!  he lost to a horse that never developed as a 3 year old yet and was at the right place at the right time.  i cant see the derby going those fractions.

[RICH]

To me the problem is the BIG negative # in the SLOP.

[ronwar]

The FACT that Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint, brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini did not win the Derby is not PROOF That Big Brown can\'t.

No horse had won from the 11 post out since the reconfiguration of Gulfstream either, I think it was something like 0-29 over 3 years, that didn\'t mean it was proof it couldn\'t be done. Obviously!

No 2 year old champ had not won the derby for 25+ years before Street Sense did it.  Many people did not bet him in the top spot for the same reason. And I find its interesting the charge you\'re supporting falls in this category. I think that count stands at 1 for 27 now since 1979

No Favorite had won the derby for 20+ years before Fupeg won?

I can do this all day, but I think you get my point

The only thing your facts prove is THOSE horses couldn\'t win it.  That being said,
I do not think War Pass is a complete toss and unless he is parked way outside because of the draw probably takes them a long way and holds on for a piece.

[belveondarockz]

ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The FACT that Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy
> Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint,
> brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet
> alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini did not win the
> Derby is not PROOF That Big Brown can\'t.
>
> No horse had won from the 11 post out since the
> reconfiguration of Gulfstream either, I think it
> was something like 0-29 over 3 years, that didn\'t
> mean it was proof it couldn\'t be done. Obviously!
>
> No 2 year old champ had not won the derby for 25+
> years before Street Sense did it.  Many people did
> not bet him in the top spot for the same reason.
> And I find its interesting the charge you\'re
> supporting falls in this category. I think that
> count stands at 1 for 27 now since 1979
>
> No Favorite had won the derby for 20+ years before
> Fupeg won?
>
> I can do this all day, but I think you get my
> point
>
> The only thing your facts prove is THOSE horses
> couldn\'t win it.  That being said,
> I do not think War Pass is a complete toss and
> unless he is parked way outside because of the
> draw probably takes them a long way and holds on
> for a piece.


you cant say anything about \"11\" post over 30 years or whatever towards what im talking about. im talking about a specific horse a specific year. although every horse is different and every situation is different, to me its a similar and fair angle to use compared with the street sense.  Both horses have 2 year old negative tops that beat every single horse hes racing against as a 3 year old and both horses did not run that top effort prior to the derby.  

my point doesnt support a 2 year old champion winning the derby alone. It supports a two year old champion running a negative number as a 2 year old and running a few off races before the effort truly counts, then winning the derby.   This horse versus these type of horses entering the derby has number power and will in my opinion have great odds.  The whole running a top in the slop last year is negligible to me. Unless a horse specifically shows that he cannot run on a certain surface it is what it is.  I have not seen the AQ Wood numbers but im assuming that war passes effort in it was better than his first out this year but not as fast as the neg 3.5 on bc day. so if that is the case toss out the tampa derby day race and this horse is making a forward move towards that bc day effort.  He only has 2 starts this year why cant he wire this weak field derby day?  Unless something really changes drastically the next 3 weeks, catch me if you can boys

[P-Dub]

If you\'re that sold on that slop number, then hope for rain on May 3.  Otherwise, as has been pointed out many times, slop numbers aren\'t as reliable relative to overall ability.  Many horses throw out huge slop numbers that aren\'t duplicated over a fast strip.

The Big Brown hype is no more ridiculous than you putting all hope in a slop number from 6 months ago. If War Pass is a nice price,  then he\'s worth playing.  But as 2nd or 3rd choice......

[TGJB]

P-Dub-- there is a whole lot of difference between 14-1 and 3-1. At 14-1 it\'s worth it even accounting for the chance that he can\'t run that fast over dry dirt AND the chance he doesn\'t make the race, because if he does go back to that 2yo top he\'s better than 50/50 to win the race. At 3-1, you\'re betting both that BB makes the race AND the big effort didn\'t blow him up a la Bellamy Road.

At worst, I give the two horses an equal chance from here. So 14-1 sounds pretty good.

[P-Dub]

JB,

14-1 qualifies as nice price and he\'ll definitely get some win money from me.
Sounds like the original poster likes him at any price.

[belveondarockz]

I like War Pass at 5 to 1 or better.  The hype im making has to do with the horses ability. The slop factor will always be a non factor unless a horse specifically shows he cannot run on it. The point of mentioning Big Brown was that he just like all the horses i mentioned ran big numbers prior to the derby (and even with all the horses ranging from 3 to 8 weeks rest) still bounced or regressed off those numbers and could not win the derby.  When you take that into consideration as well as a slower field this year THEN look at a horse like War Pass with his past efforts and start comparing, you would see that 5 to 1 or better on him is great.  A horse would have to run an effort hes never done before to beat him.  Pyro has lost to him 3 times already.  imo, TOSS Pyro as a derby winner, TOSS Big Brown, and who is left?!  Colonel John?  LOL or even better, Big Truck?! Lmao!  (side note: Big truck should bounce off the walls in the bluegrass imo).  The only other play i would consider would be El Gato Malo ( i dont even know if hes running) at like 35 to 1 or better to improve on the dirt surface off of that 3 he ran a few races back.  But as far as i can remember i think there have been only 3 horses the make a backwards move going into the derby and actually win.  Weak Field this year. Il stick with the Champ.

[belveondarockz]

hey JB i havent seen the figure for Big Brown but are u saying its about a Negative 5?!!   How can Big Brown NOT BOUNCE IF HE RAN THAT FAST?!!?

[P-Dub]

belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 TOSS Pyro as a derby  winner, TOSS Big Brown, and who is left?!  Colonel
> John?  LOL or even better, Big Truck?! Lmao!
> (side note: Big truck should bounce off the walls
> in the bluegrass imo).  The only other play i
> would consider would be El Gato Malo ( i dont even
> know if hes running) at like 35 to 1 or better to
> improve on the dirt surface off of that 3 he ran a
> few races back.  But as far as i can remember i
> think there have been only 3 horses the make a
> backwards move going into the derby and actually
> win.  Weak Field this year. Il stick with the
> Champ.

I wouldn\'t LOL at the Santa Anita Derby winner. They do have a history of running well in the KD.  Also, lets see how Colonel John works over the surface before you just throw him out. The problem with him isn\'t talent,  its the probable 3rd choice odds you\'ll get. He deserves a little more respect than that.

[Flighted Iron]

War Pass looks to be a solid miler.He\'s very reminiscent of Devils Bag.
Regardless of how allegedly dead the Big A was in his last,WP looked almost
like he broke down at the top of the lane and literally walked home.In fact,the
entire field looked to be in slow mo coming home.Rounding into form? 3yo debut
he trashed garbage looking a bit wingy,TB Derby(?),and looking extremely vulnerable in the Wood.Just like Devils Bag,WP is still clinging to his 2yo reputation.

[miff]

Paul,

Getting tired of these west coast bias posts, hee hee.I\'ll have a martini at Siro\'s at the Spa when BB and Pyro dust Col John.You get two drinks if he beats them.

Regards,
Mike

[marcus]

good point imo - wp didn\'t look right to me in the stretch specially those last 7 or 8 strides . i thought they\'d certainly find something seriously wrong afterward . racing on friday before the wood card was canceled due to a lot of rain and wind late week - maybe the surface was not only dead , but hard as a boiler plate as well ...