2008 Kentucky Derby: This Big Brown Hype is Quite Ridiculous

[belveondarockz]

was i watching the same race?  those wood fractions were ridiculous!  i would be walking too if i was on that kind of lead with that pace... and he still just missed!

[fkach]

>was i watching the same race? those wood fractions were ridiculous! i would be walking too if i was on that kind of lead with that pace... and he still just missed!<

The problem is that he tends to set a faster than average pace every time he runs. If he does that going 10F instead of 9F his last furlong will be in slow motion considering all his last furlongs have already been slow.  

The other problem is that his primary adversary (Big Brown) also has a ton of speed. I suspect that BB may be rateable. He ran slow early and incredibly fast late on the turf as a first time starter (when he tipped his hand he could be a special horse with that over the top close). Then he laid off a horse in his second start before taking over (even though the pace was lively). However, this horse is simply not going to allow War Pass to have an easy time of it. At a minimum there\'s going to be a very high quality early bid that one of them is going to win. Then he\'s going to have to hold off the others for an extra furlong. I doubt that will be easy.

To be honest, I think the best chance for either of them to win is for the other to throw in a serious dud, break in a tangle, etc... and leave the other to set a comfortable pace.

If you hate BB because you think he\'s going to bounce to the moon, I think you should like War Pass more than you do if you think BB is going to fire another big shot. IMHO, their chances are somewhat tied to how well the other runs.

[belveondarockz]

fkach Wrote:
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> >was i watching the same race? those wood
> fractions were ridiculous! i would be walking too
> if i was on that kind of lead with that pace...
> and he still just missed!<
>
> The problem is that he tends to set a faster than
> average pace every time he runs. If he does that
> going 10F instead of 9F his last furlong will be
> in slow motion considering all his last furlongs
> have already been slow.  
>
> The other problem is that his primary adversary
> (Big Brown) also has a ton of speed. I suspect
> that BB may be rateable. He ran slow early and
> incredibly fast late on the turf as a first time
> starter (when he tipped his hand he could be a
> special horse with that over the top close). Then
> he laid off a horse in his second start before
> taking over (even though the pace was lively).
> However, this horse is simply not going to allow
> War Pass to have an easy time of it. At a minimum
> there\'s going to be a very high quality early bid
> that one of them is going to win. Then he\'s going
> to have to hold off the others for an extra
> furlong. I doubt that will be easy.
>
> To be honest, I think the best chance for either
> of them to win is for the other to throw in a
> serious dud, break in a tangle, etc... and leave
> the other to set a comfortable pace.
>
> If you hate BB because you think he\'s going to
> bounce to the moon, I think you should like War
> Pass more than you do if you think BB is going to
> fire another big shot. IMHO, their chances are
> somewhat tied to how well the other runs.


thats exactly what i am saying.. look at the wood memorial..  Texas Wildcatter never bounced in his life.  He takes 4 weeks off and goes out blazing a :22 quarter with war pass and folds halfway thru the race (bounce to the moon).  i EXPECT that to be of big brown on derby day. your opinion on faster than normal fractions in previous races doesnt mean anything.  We have to handicap how we feel a horse will run that day.  no other horses to my knowledge have run 10f. il take my chances with the fastest horse in the race on the lead to put these donkeys asleep early in the race.

[belveondarockz]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> War Pass looks to be a solid miler.He\'s very
> reminiscent of Devils Bag.
> Regardless of how allegedly dead the Big A was in
> his last,WP looked almost
> like he broke down at the top of the lane and
> literally walked home.In fact,the
> entire field looked to be in slow mo coming
> home.Rounding into form? 3yo debut
> he trashed garbage looking a bit wingy,TB
> Derby(?),and looking extremely vulnerable in the
> Wood.Just like Devils Bag,WP is still clinging to
> his 2yo reputation.


the horse has a reason to hold a reputation...at least until someone dethrowns him.  what happened last year when dominican beat street sense?  he had the same rep but when it came down to it he won the derby.  the champ wins.   Heres another THREE examples of horses running tops on the slop and winning huge races:  Ghostzapper paired negative 6s (one on the slop at monmouth) and won the breeders cup,  saint liam ran a huge negative 6 on the slop and won the breeders cup, and last year bafferts horse midnight lute ran a top on the slop of a negative 7 on bc day and won the breeders cup.  Champions win baby.

and just to give u my honest idea of what i am saying.  i am in no way a fan at all of war pass.  im just using common sense and history based on situational things i see here and it just looks too good not to play.

the guy LOL\'d at me in the other messaged and said we should give pyro and colonel john credit.  sorry i cant give any credit for a horse beating up on a bunch of nobodys.

il give 2 other horses in this field any chance.  El gato malo, because a 4 point new top wouldnt be a surprise to me and would probably be good enough to win here if wp didnt fire.  And Tomcito, because he is another proven champ and might have needed one race out in the country before firing a new top effort and who knows what that could be.   both horses would obvi come off the pace and will most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds.  no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that point of view of coming off the pace from WAY back.

[Flighted Iron]

The first half was very quick but the 3/4 was not so brutal.I believe 1:11 and
some? From the 3/4 home is what I\'m focusing on mostly.I would have considered
his performance respectable if after 1:11 and 2/5 he would have ran on to the mile
at 1:37 or so and finished at 1:50 3/5,4/5 1:51 flat.


These are the actual fractions
:222  :46  1:112  1:382  1:52.36   27 seconds from the 3/4 to the mile and another
14 seconds for the last 1/8.He didn\'t slow down progressively.He flat out stopped.
The sad part is that only 1 horse caught him in deep stretch.I have thrown out
every horse from the Wood.The entire bunch are complete phonies.

[Flighted Iron]

Your analogy of SS and Dominican in the BG Stakes is farfetched at best.War Pass
has not been de-throwned yet? Recap:1 turn mile @gulfstream against absolute
pigs.2 turn mile 1/16 @ tampa(absolutely crushed.2 turn mile 1/8 @ Big A(dismally
slow finish and beaten by tale of Ekati.You keep mentioning common sense.This
sound like a horse on the come? As far as Pyro in concerned,he\'s eager to finish
and he\'s progressing albeit he\'s not wowed anyone,but they have been solid
performances.Considering the connections I would say common sense screams this
horse will continue to progress.

[Eight Belles]

belveondarockz Wrote:
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And Tomcito,
> because he is another proven champ and might have
> needed one race out in the country before firing a
> new top effort and who knows what that could be.  
> both horses would obvi come off the pace and will
> most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds.  no reason to
> take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that
> point of view of coming off the pace from WAY
> back.

I\'m still pulling for the horse because he\'s a good story but we saw why no one is willing to buy him when we got the chance to see him run.  If you didn\'t notice it, look at the replay of him coming out of the turn, the only semi-front view of him.  I\'ve never seen a scarier stride.  We talk of BB and whether his feet will allow him to get to the Derby, but here\'s another to worry about getting there.  Maybe he\'ll buck the odds and I hope he does (and some have), but with those front legs flailing around, you have to think he\'s running on borrowed time.

[miff]

\"no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that point of view of coming off the pace from WAY back\".


Bel,

In one of your previous post you think War Pass will be a good bet at 5-1 or better and now you state that Pyro might be 7-1.Are you drinking?

War Pass will at be least 10-1 and Pyro could not possibly go off at more than fav or 2nd choice in the @3-1 range, tops.Re War Pass,look for him to find a soft spot to lie down at about the eighth pole.He may not run, they know he can\'t get the trip with any authority.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If War Pass goes back to that 2YO top, he\'s 99.9% sure to win the race. (Provided you believe that top is legitimate.)

To my mind, the greatest chance War Pass has would be to take advantage of what  in my midwest neck of the woods is a very wet Spring. If the Derby track comes up sloppy, War Pass has to be accorded a major boost. I make a Sloppy Derby day track a 50% probability and within that 50% is War Pass\'s best chance.

There looks like there will be some speed in the Derby. Suddenly we have Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory to factor with War Pass. There are those that think Big Jerry Brown will hot foot it as well. Though a :46 half on that Wood track was suicidal, even with the quick steppers, I\'ll be surprised if they force the half much below 47. (Depending on the Track.) War Pass can get very brave on the lead. Its going to be a matter of who goes after him and how hard.

TGJB Wrote:
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> P-Dub-- there is a whole lot of difference between
> 14-1 and 3-1. At 14-1 it\'s worth it even
> accounting for the chance that he can\'t run that
> fast over dry dirt AND the chance he doesn\'t make
> the race, because if he does go back to that 2yo
> top he\'s better than 50/50 to win the race. At
> 3-1, you\'re betting both that BB makes the race
> AND the big effort didn\'t blow him up a la Bellamy
> Road.
>
> At worst, I give the two horses an equal chance
> from here. So 14-1 sounds pretty good.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It depends on the Bluegrass doesnt it?

miff Wrote:
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> \"no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds)
> imo at that point of view of coming off the pace
> from WAY back\".
>
>
> Bel,
>
> In one of your previous post you think War Pass
> will be a good bet at 5-1 or better and now you
> state that Pyro might be 7-1.Are you drinking?
>
> War Pass will at be least 10-1 and Pyro could not
> possibly go off at more than fav or 2nd choice in
> the @3-1 range, tops.Re War Pass,look for him to
> find a soft spot to lie down at about the eighth
> pole.He may not run, they know he can\'t get the
> trip with any authority.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck,


People will ignore Pyros race tomorrow if he runs bad.I repeat War Pass will gag at the 8th pole, if he goes.Fast pace or not, he wobbled like a drunk last 8th in the Wood.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

At this point, I\'m making War Pass a very big player.

TGJB got 14-1 on him. Those are nice odds, but I can\'t dutch and make money. My benchmark is 100-1. If I select the winner of the Derby and don\'t cash it at least 100-1, I suck. I did that very thing Smarty Jones year and I\'m not gonna do it again.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
>
> People will ignore Pyros race tomorrow if he runs
> bad.I repeat War Pass will gag at the 8th pole, if
> he goes.Fast pace or not, he wobbled like a drunk
> last 8th in the Wood.
>
> Mike

[belveondarockz]

they will all be wobbling like drunks imo and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it doesnt matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow so il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan 24 wide around all the horses on the final turn and try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win this year.

[P-Dub]

belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> the horse has a reason to hold a reputation...at
> least until someone dethrowns him.  what happened
> last year when dominican beat street sense?  he
> had the same rep but when it came down to it he
> won the derby.  the champ wins.   Heres another
> THREE examples of horses running tops on the slop
> and winning huge races:  Ghostzapper paired
> negative 6s (one on the slop at monmouth) and won
> the breeders cup,  saint liam ran a huge negative
> 6 on the slop and won the breeders cup, and last
> year bafferts horse midnight lute ran a top on the
> slop of a negative 7 on bc day and won the
> breeders cup.  Champions win baby.

Dude, how much belv do you drink before you write this stuff??  Who are you, Al Davis?? Champions win baby. No, they don\'t automatically win because they were a champion. Ask the Patriots. Or any other 2 yo champion that didn\'t win the Derby. You\'re starting to think like the present day Al Davis.....not a good thing.  There have been many 2 YO champions that have had less than stellar 3 yo seasons. Being 2 yo champion means nothing.

You compare a 2yo champion to other older champions - Ghostzapper (whose accomplishments dwarf War Pass the way Secretariat won the Belmont), St Liam (a BC Classic winner who threw out multiple monster efforts), and Midnight Lute (who ran the fastest number in TG history and another that threw MULTIPLE big efforts).  Show me where WP has run MULTIPLE huge efforts like the 3 horses you are comparing him to.  Throw out that 1 freak slop number and how good does he look??

Now, if he\'s 10-1 or better he\'s worth a bet.  If the track comes up sloppy,  he\'s worth a bet. Those are ifs that even if they happen, doesn\'t mean he wins.

 
> and just to give u my honest idea of what i am
> saying.  i am in no way a fan at all of war pass.

Then I would love to hear what you would sound like if you were actually a fan of a horse.

> im just using common sense and history based on
> situational things i see here and it just looks
> too good not to play.

Dubious on both counts.
>
> the guy LOL\'d at me in the other messaged and said
> we should give pyro and colonel john credit.
> sorry i cant give any credit for a horse beating
> up on a bunch of nobodys.

I didn\'t lol you, I responded to YOUR LOL of a horse that won a prestigious prep race and has never run worse than second. You are somehow fixated on a slop aided number that hasn\'t come close to being repeated. Many So Cal horses run well on Derby Day. Beat a bunch on nobodys.  How many did War Pass beat down in Tampa??  Tell me which horses in the Wood make you proud that War Pass beat??  And regarding Pyro.  He beat Tale of Ekati in the La. Derby.  Tale of Ekati comes back to beat War Pass. So Pyro beat a nobody, and this same nobody comes back to beat War Pass. But we should all hail War Pass because of a negative number in the slop of his 2 YO season. I couldn\'t make this stuff up. Priceless.

>
> il give 2 other horses in this field any chance.
> El gato malo, because a 4 point new top wouldnt be
> a surprise to me and would probably be good enough
> to win here if wp didnt fire.

So let me get this straight....... Colonel John beat nobody. But the horse that he\'s beaten in his last 2 starts, a nobody, El Gato Malo, is probably good enough if WP doesn\'t fire. And on top of that, despite evidence that horses rarely run a new top in the Derby - let alone a 4 pt top - you say its possible The Bad Kitty can run a 4 pt top.  Sounds like Common Sense to me. And I see where the past history of horses running 4 pt new tops in the Derby is starting to come into focus. I\'m starting to follow you now.

> needed one race out in the country before firing a
> new top effort and who knows what that could be.  
> both horses would obvi come off the pace and will
> most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds.  no reason to
> take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that
> point of view of coming off the pace from WAY
> back.

A proven champ...in another country.

I have no axe to grind with you.  You sound like a good dude, love the horses, etc..  But some of the arguments you are making are, I gotta say it, ridiculous. However, if War Pass wins I will congratulate you and admit I was wrong.  

Before your next post, double up on the OJ and skip the belv.

[P-Dub]

belveondarockz Wrote:
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> they will all be wobbling like drunks imo

You should know.

< and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it doesnt
> matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow so
> il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan 24
> wide around all the horses on the final turn and
> try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win this
> year.

Mike,
Can you imagine what this board will look like if War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as it is).

Belv,
You are dissing some horses that have run pretty well. You\'re starting to sound like a nit. Your comments above sound like they came from someone too young to drink Belv.


Giacomo was supposed to be too slow. How did he do on Derby Day?? Lots of variables come into play besides figures.  Again, lets see how Colonel John handles the strip in workouts before you throw him out.  He\'s gonna win me a couple drinks from Miff.  And after reading some of your posts,  it sure as hell won\'t be belvedere.