Bluegrass

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hate this race.

The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and I can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately at him.

I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big Truck without real insight or conviction.

This thing could come in balloons but who?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hate this race.
>
> The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and I
> can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately at
> him.
>
> I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big
> Truck without real insight or conviction.
>
> This thing could come in balloons but who?

Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I hate this race.
> >
> > The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and
> I
> > can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately
> at
> > him.
> >
> > I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big
> > Truck without real insight or conviction.
> >
> > This thing could come in balloons but who?
>
> Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.


but ctc, was this result good or bad for Pyro haters? what\'s BB now? 5/2?

anyway, good call against the even money fave, and with the winner.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I agree with that analysis Michael. I think this race cost anyone hoping to cash on Pyro\'s Derby Flop dearly. Street Sense didn\'t get beat a pole in his Bluegrass.

And I agree that BJB is now the likely Derby favorite, depending of course on the Ark and Lexington results.

Thanx on the cash. It wasn\'t very scientific. I merely took what I believed to be the best Poly Past Performance horse and the Best Poly Workout Horse, coupled with a conviction that Pyro was vastly overrated. I cashed the race at 6-1. Its winning, but Pyro was good for Golden Balloons with more insight on dirt. I had to bet the Bluegrass because I knew intuitively that Pyro would not go to the Derby with more stature.

Congrats as well. Hope you caught the exotics. They were juicy.

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I hate this race.
> > >
> > > The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money
> and
> > I
> > > can\'t distill enough facts to shoot
> accurately
> > at
> > > him.
> > >
> > > I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of
> Big
> > > Truck without real insight or conviction.
> > >
> > > This thing could come in balloons but who?
> >
> > Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.
>
>
> but ctc, was this result good or bad for Pyro
> haters? what\'s BB now? 5/2?
>
> anyway, good call against the even money fave, and
> with the winner.

[Silver Charm]

The only thing the Ark Derby has to do with the Ky Derby is who runs first or second because they get in.

Otherwise horses like Monba and Cowboy Cal have just taken two spots from others with perhaps a chance.

I\'m looking for Blackberry Road to close late for a big piece and maybe the whole enchilada

[belveondarockz]

i really hate the poly track!  imo this is a non effort and many horses in here can be excused for the performance they had in it today especially with those slow fractions!

[Silver Charm]

After that result at Ark this is now the Poly Track Derby being run on dirt.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver, I think what the Ark demonstrated is that the horses that finished close to Pyro at the Fair Grounds, really were not very good horses. My Pal Charlie, Blackberry Road. These type will take turns beating each other.

That said Stevil faired better at Keeneland than the Fair Grounds, but that could be at least partially attributable to a \"grassy\" pedigree:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/stevil

Z Fortune and Visionaire appear to be on the improve to me as well.

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> After that result at Ark this is now the Poly
> Track Derby being run on dirt.

[alm]

Draw a line through this one...it used to be the Blue Grass was a nice setup race for the Derby, now it\'s a teardown...it\'s worthless....or it\'s a workout...it certainly sharpened Street Sense for last year\'s Derby...maybe this is all Pyro (a dirt horse) needed.

The crack about SS not losing the Blue Grass by a pole is irrelevant.  He did not run his race...and Pyro did not pick up his feet.  His result was too bad to be credible.

[Michael D.]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Draw a line through this one


fine. but a line after the race is no good.

we had Dominican last year, and Monba this year.

the surface is as hard on speed as it used to be on closers, and some just don\'t take to it. bet accordingly.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres a little more going on here than meets the eye alm. A top class horse guts it out.

And though I respect your opinion, I\'m sorry if you\'re vested in Pyro.

My wager against him had more to do with speed than Poly.

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Draw a line through this one...it used to be the
> Blue Grass was a nice setup race for the Derby,
> now it\'s a teardown...it\'s worthless....or it\'s a
> workout...it certainly sharpened Street Sense for
> last year\'s Derby...maybe this is all Pyro (a dirt
> horse) needed.
>
> The crack about SS not losing the Blue Grass by a
> pole is irrelevant.  He did not run his race...and
> Pyro did not pick up his feet.  His result was too
> bad to be credible.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

i didnt have dominican.......but remember some did.

[fkach]

As far as I\'m concerned, Pyro\'s performance caused the exact problem for Steven Asmussen I\'ve been talking about all along in my criticism of using Poly as the final prep for a Derby horse.

Had the horse run a mediocre 3rd or 4th, it would be easy to dismiss the performance as related to Poly and assume the effort did him some good. However, Pyro ran so dismally, it\'s not quite so easy to dismiss it. How do we really know if it was Poly or whether this horse has some kind of problem?  He was atrocious. Furthermore, even if you do dismiss it, SA has no idea at all what the horse got out of the race (if anything) which is going to make it more difficut to bring him to the Derby at his peak.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I thought Pyros end of race fade from 8th to 10th on that stuff was a good indicator of how he\'ll handle the last quarter in a real horse race.

Conceding that Poly is a freak surface, the Bluegrass was Pyro\'s first attempt at 9 full poles over effort demanding ground and it clearly didn\'t go well.

I guess the really interesting thing will be his Derby off odds. If he goes off at 10-1 there, maybe some will be influenced to take the plunge and ignore the slow figures and last prep. However, I don\'t see Pyro in the 4-1 range any longer thats for certain. Regardless of what he got out of the Bluegrass, if you\'re a believer, I think you\'re likely to get good odds.

I thought it telling in regard to which horse Steve put the saddle on.

I\'m not gonna be able to sleep tonight. I\'m getting very excited now.

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As far as I\'m concerned, Pyro\'s performance caused
> the exact problem for Steven Asmussen I\'ve been
> talking about all along in my criticism of using
> Poly as the final prep for a Derby horse.
>
> Had the horse run a mediocre 3rd or 4th, it would
> be easy to dismiss the performance as related to
> Poly and assume the effort did him some good.
> However, Pyro ran so dismally, it\'s not quite so
> easy to dismiss it. How do we really know if it
> was Poly or whether this horse has some kind of
> problem?  He was atrocious. Furthermore, even if
> you do dismiss it, SA has no idea at all what the
> horse got out of the race (if anything) which is
> going to make it more difficut to bring him to the
> Derby at his peak.

[Ian Meyers]

Pyro didn\'t have the confirmation to run over Poly and Asmussen knew it.  The horse hadn\'t worked well over the surface any of the times my partner saw him and he came into the paddock wearing some expanded form of front shoes (laden with acrylic) in an attempt to give him a bigger foot and more traction.

With his little deer feet he is unlikely to run much better at CD than he did at KEE, unless it comes up wet Derby Day.  FWIW, Zito didn\'t think Coal Coal Man would handle the surface either.