Kentucky Bear

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I thought he was on the wrong lead in the stretch and that despite that he was getting slowly to the Poly specialists.

[belveondarockz]

he looks like an \"O-X-O-X\" horse to me!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Maybe,

That will depend upon the figure from the Bluegrass and though I doubt the race was exceptional, I\'ve not reviewed the charts, nor do I think reviewing them on Poly is of as much benefit. I don\'t think he has the earnings to make the Derby field, that said, keep your eyes peeled for his return.

I\'ll tout you on one other, because you\'re gonna burn a lot of Shekels at the rate you\'re going, but its part quiz, so you\'re gonna have to figure it out:

\"Do you like puffed rice coated with chocolate?\"

. belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> he looks like an \"O-X-O-X\" horse to me!

[miff]

Chuck,

Bluegrass Beyer 92, if Jerry agrees it\'ll be app a TG 2 1/2ish. Ark derby got a Beyer of 103, app TG Zero if in agreement.

Mike

[belveondarockz]

yea im saying that because of pace and that irregularly way of racing that he ran a new top but regardless i still think it could look like an \"effort non effort effort non effort\" type situation such as forefathers.  Puffed rice coated with chocolate is quite delicious.  il drink to that!

[alm]

Will the Ark Derby number be competitive with those coming out of other preps?

If so, ZF\'s wide run is reminiscent of Lil E Tee\'s...it could be a perfect setup for Churchill.

[miff]

ALM,

I felt Z Fortune got a much better trip than Gayego, who was involved in the race every step of the way and still held Z Fortune  safe. ZF will get the better fig but watch the race, Gayego did more \"tough\" running.

If Jerry agrees with Beyer, then ZF and Gayego will stack up fairly well against most of the field, based on figs.Seems many of the Cali synth runners are doing well when shipping to dirt tracks lately.


Mike

[ajkreider]

I think the most we can say is that the Cushion track runners at Santa Anita have done well transitioning to the dirt at Oaklawn.  That\'s the move Tiago, Zenyatta, and Gayego made.

Why only to Arkanasas, is an interesting question.

[fkach]

>Seems many of the Cali synth runners are doing well when shipping to dirt tracks lately. <

Yes it does.

It\'s not clear to me whether they are benefitting from training on synthetics or whether the synthetic figures are compressed to some degree like we see on turf (or maybe a little of both). It would not shock me if we see other versatile horses improve their figures when they switch from synthetic to dirt. My feeling is that some of it is related to figure compression (and I have a very good theory for why this occurs), but I\'m sure the fans of synthetics will promote it as a benefit of the surface.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think Z Fortune is the best colt in the Stable.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ALM,
>
> I felt Z Fortune got a much better trip than
> Gayego, who was involved in the race every step of
> the way and still held Z Fortune  safe. ZF will
> get the better fig but watch the race, Gayego did
> more \"tough\" running.
>
> If Jerry agrees with Beyer, then ZF and Gayego
> will stack up fairly well against most of the
> field, based on figs.Seems many of the Cali synth
> runners are doing well when shipping to dirt
> tracks lately.
>
>
> Mike

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Z Fortune is the best colt in the Stable.


...and you would be remiss not to mention that he is a ponderous rodent bred in the Empire State...

Has anybody thought about the prospective win pool odds for the Derby if not much changes in the next 2-1/2 weeks?

Big Jerry Brown -- 5/2

War Pass/ Colonel John -- between 4/1 - 8/1?

Pyro-- between 6/1 - 10/1? Above 10/1 off his puzzling, \"hoof too small\" BG?

Everyone else above 10/1?

Will Eight Belles be overbet for all the wrong reasons (a la Hillary Clinton)
if she is entered in the Derby?

Which colts who go off at odds in excess of 25/1 will have a chance of winning
based on TG #s?

I expect that Jimbo, who is particularly keen at creating a speculative ML, will
be reporting in soon.

[fkach]

I think a consensus is building that there\'s a lot more speed in the race than people thought a few weeks ago. I\'m not sure how much that will impact the odds (or even the strategies) but you can be sure that there\'s going to be an endless stream of media discussion about it. The last time that happened, everyone fell asleep and War Emblem wired as the fastest horse at a big price (something that was a lot of fun for me and others).

[big18741]

I don\'t think there was all that much other speed in the War Emblem Derby.

Medaglio who would have at least pressed him was slammed out of the gate and lost all chance.Not much else in terms of pace from what I remember.

[magicnight]

Also, the year before the War Emblem Derby there was a really hot pace (the one that Point Given may have been too close to), which also may have played a factor in WE\'s relatively easy fractions.

[fkach]

>Also, the year before the War Emblem Derby there was a really hot pace (the one that Point Given may have been too close to), which also may have played a factor in WE\'s relatively easy fractions.<

Exactly. That was one of my points. The prior year was a very rapid pace and everyone was talking about that leading up to War Emblem\'s Derby. That discussion heightened sensivity to the pace issue so much, everyone that could have gone with War Emblem didn\'t.

We may see the same thing this year.