Race Shapes?

[Michael D.]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D.
> I may have used poor wording when I said, \"I will
> say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is
> being portrayed in here.\"  If it came off as I was
> comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that
> wasn\'t the intent.  

thanks small,

why is Bris a lot more in-depth than what is being portrayed here?

they don\'t use ground or weight as far as I know. do they use wind?

I use Bris all the time, and find the product useful (especially for the price), but it does have its limitations.

btw - look at the pace ratings on Monba last week. 66/73/114 last synth.

[miff]

Small,

The comparison does not take into account the fact that War Pass was under a death grip the 1st quarter of his first race at GP whereas BB was hot on the chase.The Bris pace figs do not show the \"death grip\" part of WP\'s quarter, only the raw fig which was slow because they crawled early.Point is, without seeing the race and it\'s early shape, the figs are not that useful and do not really tell who is quicker in this case. I think WP is the quicker early, one dimensional speed,BB is kinda unknown yet in that regard.

WP has \"sprint\" speed, BB never sprinted and don\'t know if he\'s got the same  early gas as WP.Connections insist BB is not hot and does not pull. Guess we\'ll see if they both go on derby day.Have seen Bris enough to know it is not in the same league as TG, Beyers or Rags( final figs, not pace figs)

Mike

[smalltimer]

Michael D,
I indicated that I\'m not comparing Bris and Thoro and the variables they use in their methodology.  What I did say, is that I\'m well versed in understanding the Bris numbers and I\'m admittedly a total novice regarding the Thorograph approach.
Even though Bris would have its limitations, I\'ve yet to find any site, including this one, that is without limits.
Regarding you question about Monba.  In looking at the HOL race at a mile 1/16th on Cushion and pace numbers of 66/73/114 with a SPD of 95, and the Bluegrass at a mile eighth on Poly with numbers of 91/103/86 and a SPD of 97, then I doubt Monba left anything on the track.  If you are strictly comparing the two races, clearly the Cushion race way slower early and way faster later, and the Bluegrass was much faster early and much slower late, of course, the extra 1/8th was a big factor there.
At this point, I don\'t like Monba at all in the Derby.  He\'s bred to be an excellent synthetic horse, and he is.  But, he\'ll have his hands full with some of the better horses in the field at Churchill.
Michael, educate me on the \"weight\" issue, okay?  I\'m being sincere, I only started to pay attention to this board in the last day and a half, so you seem to have a good handle on the factors you consider important.  I think the ground loss speaks for itself.  Thanks.

[smalltimer]

Miff,
Thanks for the comments.  I watched the War Pass race live and seen the replay several times.  I thought he was throttled from 15 seconds into the race, but honestly, I was really concerned with how he ran up the stretch in that 1 mile allowance race.  It just seemed like his rump was almost stationary, he didn\'t seem to be able to use his hindquarters to push off. So to answer that part of your question, I watch tons of replays so I can draw my own conclusions about who\'s being pushed forward and who\'s being restrained.  Obviously, War Pass was under heavy restraint.  I\'m really bothered by the type of campaign that Zito has had this horse on.  It seems to be all about taking the path of least resistance.  He could have showed up in the Fla Derby or the Lecomte or any of the strong prep races, instead he takes him to Tampa Bay to face a bunch of midrange 3 year olds.  It almost seems as if they\'ve just tried to protect him and get him to the Derby in one piece, it almost seems like they\'ve just dulled his early speed so much that he hasn\'t improved much.
As far as Beyers, I find mistake after mistake after mistake in those numbers.  So I\'m not much of a believer in them.  Personal choice here.
That\'s what I like about this forum, there are some guys who really know their Thorograph stuff, and I\'m just a novice.  As I stated in a earlier post, I\'m primarily an angles guy, I know bloodlines, I certainly know artificial surfaces and how they vary and who produces the good ones on those surfaces.  But, its all good, every good idea or concept that makes a person look at things differently is good for the sport.
Off the topic for a minute, I read the Beyer article in the DRF and as far as I\'m concerned he\'s thrown in the towel in trying to figure out artificial surfaces.  Its a shame, because he\'s supposed to be an expert, and he\'s clueless.

[Michael D.]

did you figure out that Relaunch stuff yet?

[miff]

Small,

For the most part Mark Hopkins is the current guru of Beyer speed figs not Andy. For those critical of Andy Beyer, I assure you that he has made monster scores(one in my presence) which I doubt many of his critics have or will ever make.

By the way, many of the pro type players/whales do not gamble the synthys/poly tracks, as the results are far too chaotic/inconsistent. Giving up one of the strongest angles in racing, speed, does not sit well with many.If you\'re making 4 horse $1.00 boxes or something like that, poly/synth is great.If you are a step out bettor,it\'s a disaster.Pure turf horses regularly running over much faster dirt horses. Make\'s perfect sense.

Mike

[smalltimer]

Michael D,
Sorry I missed the follow-up on your question.  I\'m headed out the door to work (2:50 a.m. CST), I\'ll send some info later in the afternoon.
Thanks

[smalltimer]

Miff,
I\'ll respond later this afternoon, I\'m headed out the door for my real job.
Thanks.

[miff]

This from the Keenland Spokesman regarding the huge downturn in handle so far at the current meet:

\"Williams acknowledged that anecdotal tales abound in regard to how some bettors have scaled back their wagering because of unfamiliarity with, or a dislike for, synthetic surfaces, but added that if those are true, then why were records set last spring?\"

Ahem,

.....typical of the prototype clueless modern racetrack exec, this guy doesn\'t know why whales and large bettors are staying away from Kee this year. Well duhhhh, they NOW realize it\'s IMPOSSIBLE to bet serious on that despicable surface and grind out a rebate type profit which many strive for.True that many whales are stock market guys or business entrepreneurs who are feeling the pressure of the present economic downturn and poly is their excuse to back off.

Most importantly, while some whales are under the radar, some are open. How bout a brilliant idea, ask the fking big customer?? Thank goodness there are enough people in NYRA\'s Charlie Haywards ear(trainers,owners,customers) so that they move slowly and get this surface thing right for everyone involved in the game.


Mike


Mike

[richiebee]

Miff:

I know you love Jerry Bossert\'s name for the Kee surface:

He calls it \"Follytrack\".

Miff, I like Keeneland as a track and a tradition too much to start shoveling
dirt over the grave.

I am sure the cetaceans are doing what a lot of others said they intended to
do..go easy on the surface until there is more data to work with; given the
shortness of the Kee meets the data accumulates slowly.

The day to day quality of racing at Keeneland is quite good to say the least,
arguably the best offered in the US.

[congaree1]

Miff, I agree with you. I am a rebate player and I will not bet Keeneland or Delmar, because of the track. I still think the turf at Keeneland is worth playing, but the main track is impossible for me. Do you think the Pletcher horses would have run 1-2 at Aqueduct? IMO that track was clearly too there advantage and those 2 horses, just love the stuff.

[miff]

\"The day to day quality of racing at Keeneland is quite good to say the least,
arguably the best offered in the US\".



Bee,

Kee has the best racing by a pole, but you can\'t bet serious money on it. Do you think it was a coincidence that the pick 6 was not hit for 8 days?

Kee is a beautiful place, needs a nice new dirt surface and they can get the money by selling the present wax and rubber to condom companies.

Regards,
Mike

[colt]

I would be surprise if the decline in Handle does not extend to the other Polyquack tracks – namely DMR, AP, & WO.

[Rick B.]

It\'s nothing short of amazing to me that this thread just popped up, as I just decided last night to stop wagering on all of the fake surfaces.
 
After an honest examination of my records, there\'s no getting around it -- I\'m getting killed on poly, cushion, Tapeta, doesn\'t matter: if it\'s fake, it\'s eating my bankroll.
 
I suppose there are those who will opine that I am a bad handicapper, that I can\'t adapt, that this is sour grapes, etc., and that\'s fine -- you might be right.

But I\'m tired of losing on these surfaces, and I don\'t mean just a little bit: my return on fake track bets is an embarrassing 16 cents on the dollar. When I remove fake from the equation, I\'m only losing a few pennies on the dollar, and my rebate takes care of that.
 
So it\'s a no-brainer. Fake advocates -- it\'s all yours! Enjoy.

[fkach]

>Most importantly, while some whales are under the radar, some are open. How bout a brilliant idea, ask the fking big customer?? Thank goodness there are enough people in NYRA\'s Charlie Haywards ear(trainers,owners,customers) so that they move slowly and get this surface thing right for everyone involved in the game.
<

I read an interview with Charlie Hayward just the other day. It was mostly about NYRA budget issues, OTB, simulcasting and other key issues. Poly, the future of Aqueduct, and other issues came up also. I don\'t know C.H., never read much about him, never saw an interview etc... So I went into it expecting him to be another idiot. I came away thinking there was some hope. I think he has it figured out. It\'s a matter of how much power he has.

If we could just round up all the politicians and make them part of a new dirt surface, we\'d be in good shape. ;-)