Race Shapes?

[EJXD2]

> Kee has the best racing by a pole, but you can\'t bet serious money on it. Do you
> think it was a coincidence that the pick 6 was not hit for 8 days?
>
This is blindingly ignorant. The pick six doesn\'t get played in Kentucky like it does in SoCal or even New York. It takes a week-long carryover to get pools into the six figures in Kentucky. Churchill on dirt is the same way.

[miff]

Ejxd2,

Regardless of the small amount being played day 1,2 3, it\'s not getting hit because the races are too tough to figure on a REGULAR basis. Granted Cali and NY bet much more on day one.Considering the size of the carryover going in they did not bet that much money because of the garbage surface, capish?

Mike

[TGJB]

Or to put it another way, there\'s a reason it takes that long to grow. The first few days can be a function of the local bettors-- once it gets to 100k, it\'s a national phenomenon.

[imallin]

Does Keeneland even accept bets from offshore shops (whales)? I was under the impression that they do not.

[RICH]

I agree, Poly/cushion they stink. It has ruined the preps, and it will ruin the Bcup too. When and if I bet poly again it will be because I want to have a few drinks and smokes with the boys, strickly a get out of the house and throw some dollars away. How can anyone bet a few hundred to win on a horse that is first time poly to dirt and feel confident. This does not bode well for the cup this year.

[miff]

The real shame is the cluless exec\'s in Cali(esp the imbecile at Del Mar) became annoyed when some large bettors complained about the surface.How dare the customer complain, shut up and bet your money.The Del Mar imbecile( his name escapes me) had the nerve to laud the intro of poly as a great success while a large number of people across the country called that surface a disgrace to racing (as was Kee for that disgraceful 2007 Bluegrass debacle)

Talk about clueless this DM guy takes the cake, but NOW they are revisiting adding jelly cable to make the surface tighter. Maybe the fastest sprinters in Cali will break 1.11 for 6 f this year at DM.

 
Mike

[fkach]

Del Mar was notch below heaven before they installed the new surface.

Why don\'t they just put Poly at Wimbledon next?  ugggh

[colt]

\"The real shame is the cluless exec\'s in Cali(esp the imbecile at Del Mar)\"...Joe Clueless Harper...

[congaree1]

I bet with RGS and they do not take Keeneland. But some rebates shops do offer the track.

[Lost Cause]

Do these Synthetic Execs seriously bet racehorses?  Maybe if they actually sat down and handicapped one of their races and then after the race runs  says \"what the hell just happened\" when none of their horses finish on the board.  Maybe then they might start understanding that no serious gamblers want to play their product

I am not a whale, I\'ll play about 1,000 to 1,500  a week, If I get hot i\'ll start pouring in the profits though..I can honestly say that I have no interest in betting Poly races at this time.  I have an interest in the huge payouts but actually taking my money and putting it into a race where I have to hope and pray does not entice me.  If that is stopping me with my paltry 1,000 a week I know it has to be stopping the 10,000 a race bettor.

[congaree1]

The executives do not care about the horse players IMO. With out us there would be know racing. They say Polly is to protect the horses, which I am all for, because they are the number 1 reason we are all in business. Is there solid evidence it has? As much as I am all for protecting the horses, I protect my bank roll by not betting Polly. I can say for certain that all of my friends that I bet with, do not play Polly for the same reason.

[smalltimer]

Miff,
Finally have a chance to respond. I\'m not directly criticizing Andy Beyer, I\'m simply pointing out that as one of the most reknown cappers in the business, he seems to have thrown up his hands and scratched his head, and given up on trying to find the solution to winning on artificial.  My response was in regard to his article in the DRF where he seems exasperated. NO doubt, his inability to be the expert on the artificial is a helluva blow to his ego.  I\'ve never questioned Andy\'s ability to handicap a horse race, his reputation and results speak for themselves.  But please remember, being the top dog indefinitely or having things all your own way is not a birthright.  At some point, you got to adjust, if you can\'t solve the artificial programs, and you\'re high profile like Mr. Beyer, its pretty unbecoming to whine about it.  
As far as the guys who bet a chunk and have given up the \"speed\" angle, that\'s just the way the game is now, they\'ll have to adjust or stay out of the artificials.  To me, its a case of allowing the game to pass you by, or at the minimum, it limits your ability to play all the circuits now.  Myself, with all respect, I don\'t feel sorry for them.  This game is fluid, always has been, many of the old cappers just liked it when they had all the time and most of the knowledge and so the game belonged to them.  Not any more.
I\'m in my mid 50\'s, and I told my best male friend, strictly a form handicapper, about 25 years ago that this is a game of drugs, equipment and surface.  Either you\'re in the game or you\'re on the outside looking in.
In a nutshell, this is the problem with those struggling to make sense of the artificial surfaces:  they continue to want to believe that all artificials are the same.  THEY ARE NOT.  Poly is a totally separated surface.  Cushion and Pro Ride are very similar, and Tapeta is a little similar to Cushion and Pro, but bears no resemblance to Poly.  The sooner the cappers decide that Poly is a distinct surface, the more success they\'ll enjoy.
I apologize for the lengthy answer, but I\'ll entertain opposing viewpoints on surfaces, etc.  Again, I know virtually nothing about Thorograph methodology.  So, I have no intend on insulting any of the guys because much of the time I am scratching my head to figure out what the hell everybody in here is referring to.  Laughing here now.

[easygoer89]

You can bet them offshore, they just don\'t go in the pool.  As for why the handles may be down other than poly, since Twin Spires bought BrisBet they do not take action on Keeneland.

[Rick B.]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To me, its a case of allowing the game to pass you by,
> or at the minimum, it limits your ability to play all
> the circuits now.
 
> In a nutshell, this is the problem with those struggling
> to make sense of the artificial surfaces; they continue
> to want to believe that all artificials are the same.

> The sooner the cappers decide that Poly is a distinct
> surface, the more success they\'ll enjoy.

Couple of problems with your statements:

1. What\'s wrong with not playing all of the circuits? I\'ve avoided Maryland racing for years, simply because I consistently found better wagering opportunities elsewhere. I might also point out that each of us likely started with one circuit -- our \"home\" circuit.

You sound like you are trying to appeal to action junkies: learn Poly and the other fakes, or you will only be able to bet 50 races a day, instead of 100!

2. The discovery that the fake surfaces are different from each other might be the Holy Grail for you, but I never for a moment \"decided\" that all of the fake surfaces are the same. None of the fake surfaces I\'ve analyzed act like anything else, or each other. Hell, if the poly at Keeneland last Friday could have just acted like the poly at Keeneland last Saturday, maybe I could have cashed a friggin\' ticket!

3. The idea that doing \"this\" or \"that\", in what we think about poly and how we play it as \"THE\" path to success is silly; skipping races that are undecipherable to the \'capper is just as valid of a method towards achieving overall success.

You are correct about the fluidity of the game. Of course the game continues to change, and of course there is \"continuing education\" to complete, but I already paid the bulk of my \"tuition\" years ago, and I\'ll be damned if I\'m going to pay all over again for a new degree.

[jma11473]

Much as I hate to say it, I actually think the Twin Spires situation is why handle is down. I only say this because handle skyrocketed in the first season with polytrack, so I\'m not sure why after four meets racing on it everyone would suddenly decide to stop betting it. If your answer is \"because you can\'t win betting it\", again, why now and not in fall 2006 (when handle was way UP)?