Race Shapes?

[miff]

\"Much as I hate to say it, I actually think the Twin Spires situation is why handle is down. I only say this because handle skyrocketed in the first season with polytrack, so I\'m not sure why after four meets racing on it everyone would suddenly decide to stop betting it. If your answer is \"because you can\'t win betting it\", again, why now and not in fall 2006 (when handle was way UP)\"?


jma,
The economy is way off now with uncertainty going forward,stock market down,lay offs, gas prices, and guys getting carried out betting poly is more likely the reasons than Twin Spires.TS could never account for the amount of falloff at the best race meet in the country by a pole.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.pimlico18apr18,0,4476354.story

[smalltimer]

Rick B,
Thanks for the response. When I said, \"it limits your ability to play all the circuits now.\"  This is what I meant:  For those that have taken Poly off the table, i.e. they won\'t play it, that results in taking almost the entire Cal circuit away, and in Kentucky, other than CD and RD, the Poly surface would limit Turfway and Keeneland. So when I made that comment, I was implying for those who may have made SA, HOL, TP, KEE, and AP a big part of their game, it may no longer exist for them.  I give props to those who are smart enough to stay away from a track or circuit that\'s eating their bankroll.  For those that played primarily the So Cal circuit, it changes things significantly for them. I agree, we all probably started with out \"home circuit.\"  If players \"home circuit\" was So Cal, then they\'re going elsewhere to play.
I wouldn\'t consider myself an action junkie, nor was I appealing to such.  I know guys who play 50 races a day and others who don\'t play 50 races a year.  But if I\'m going to Vegas for 10 days, I\'m gonna play a lotta races each day.  So if that means I need to be on top of Poly, Cushion, Tapeta, Pro Ride, Turf, then I do my research.
I\'m not gonna contest how many races you\'ve analyzed, I\'ve analyzed a couple in my handicapping days also. To be honest, you remind me of my best male friend.  HELLUVA handicapper, he just can\'t get a handle on Keeneland and it drives him crazy.  Keeneland was one of his \"babies\" for the last 30 years, and now in the last couple years he just can\'t pull the trigger there cause he\'s gun shy.  Nothing wrong with that, at least he\'s smart enough to tone down his wagering there.  
The idea of \"doing this or doing that\", may be silly to you, because you don\'t understand many of the Poly races, heck, in a typical program at Keeneland I may only play 2-3 races.  Some days, I may play 10 races there.  I agree, if there\'s nothing appealing in the race for you, the idea of guessing has never been a very good formula at the track.  
There\'s no doubt, 95% of the guys that visit the room have paid their dues, done their continuing ed, etc.  Isn\'t that the nature of this game?  Just when you think you got Keeneland figured out, they change the surface?  Or in your case, from one week to the next, the surface and results play completely different.  It\'s a tough game, that\'s why Experts in this room put their heads together.  I don\'t include myself among those Experts, cause I know almost nothing about Thorograph methodology. I came into the room about 3 days ago, and I\'ve read more intelligent concepts from these guys that I have in the last many years.  Do I think they all the all the answers?  Of course not, but they keep on looking.
I like a good, respectful disagreement.  Trust me, when someone responds with a differing opinion, I read it and respond.  I\'m not trying to convince you or anyone of anything.  But, can Poly be beaten like a drum? All day long...
Here\'s hoping you have a great weekend.
Take care

[docicu3]

Of course handle is down at Laurel it is a simulcast track not a track for live racing where literally you can count the people in the stands on any day except a Saturday on one hand.  The administration goes out of it\'s way to terrorize the players who are regulars and in general is the poster child for how not to treat customer. Putting 250K through the place each year doesn\'t mean I should be treated like royalty but I get a warmer welcome from an ex wife!!

[easygoer89]

consider yourself blessed, even Suffolk treats me better than my ex-wife.

[Dick Powell]

Two  different issues. (1) Most rebate shops are not allowed to bet on Keeneland; at least for the past few years. Rebate shops like RGS commingle all their bets with the host track\'s pools. (2) You can probably bet Keeneland with whatever internet bookmaking sites that are left. None of that money goes into the pool so when you make a bet with them the host track and its horsemen receive nothing.

[TreadHead]

Do you have experimental race shapes available from Friday\'s Keeneland card?  Seeing as how 4 routes were won wire to wire, this seems like the kind of bias that the product would be great for.  Would you have gotten most/all of these horses on the lead with the race shapes?  (No, Im not advocating completely ignoring the TG figures themselves, but this might have been a huge help on a day like today.

[miff]

Thread,

There were actually 4 wires at Kee, one a 4 1/2 f race, and three route wire to wire winners(the last race winner at 7F was very close up also)

Two of the three routes wires were clearly the speed and the TG race shape must have shown it that way. The feature 9th race winner just crawed to the lead, there was no speed at all and don\'t know what the TG race shape would show.


Mike

[miff]

Someone may wish to inform the clueless Kee execs that in spite of their statement on the economy etc, the handle at Aqueduct is up app 10% at the same time when Kee is down 17%.

In spite of the pathectic quality of racing in NY compared to Keenland,the players seem to be telling the cluless racing execs what surface they prefer to bet their money on.

Kee, I believe, is a non profit operation so they can stonewall the poly issue since they have financial interest in poly.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

I want to be very careful here.

Word I am hearing is Derby Buzz is down. Hotel rooms are available in Louisville at places you needed to be booked months/years in advance. Same goes with certain tickets. Certain members of certain national media are complaining about the lack of interest they are getting as they are trying to drum up some.

There has to be a correlation to Santa Anita being shut down every other week in Jan. Also these Polytrack Preps being boring and meaningless in the eyes of the gambler and hence the same vibe carries over to the casual fan.

You do not move The Masters to a Seaside Links and expect people to feel the same buzz. You do not take 50-100 years of tradition break it apart and expect people to buy in. Churchill Downs did not do this but they and the Sport of Horse Racing are the ones who will pay the biggest price.

The fans and gamblers who leave may never come back unless big changes are made and made quickly.

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I want to be very careful here.
>
> Word I am hearing is Derby Buzz is down.

When I found last December that my niece\'s First Holy Communion was on May 3rd, I immediately asked my brother (also a horseplayer): \"What, you didn\'t petition the pastor (yes, he plays the horses too!) to change the date? Doesn\'t he know it\'s Kentucky Derby day?\" We laughed, but I was half serious.
 
My bro said I didn\'t have to attend, but I told him I wouldn\'t think of missing my niece\'s big day.

Still, privately, I had a twinge of sadness -- as a horseplayer, the Kentucky Derby is my Christmas. I look forward to it all year long. And except for the year Giacoslow won it, it\'s always been a huge blast -- whether I cash a ticket or not.

Maybe I\'m just rationalizing here because I know I won\'t be playing on Derby day, but poster Silver Charm has hit on something here -- there is no sense of excitement this year. I don\'t know that I\'d hang it all on the many fake surfaces and the non-descript, seemingly average horses winning the preps (believe me, I\'d like to), but something is wrong.

I can\'t put my finger on it yet, but when I\'m missing my first Derby in over 20 years and I just don\'t care, that\'s a poster child for lack of buzz, for sure.

[RICH]

We will all be saying the same thing next Breeders Cup Day, that\'s for sure.

[miff]

Looks like Frank Stronach will keep the rug after it gets strong support from the trainers.




Support grows for synthetic surface
By JAY PRIVMAN
ARCADIA, Calif. - After a series of meetings with trainers and owners at Santa Anita on Sunday, Frank Stronach, whose Magna Entertainment owns the track, said he was leaning toward going with a synthetic surface at the track rather than replacing it with a dirt surface, according to several people at the meetings.

The situation remains in flux, though, according to Ron Charles, Santa Anita\'s president. On Monday, Charles said Santa Anita will do \"a number of tests on the existing track.\"

\"We want to look at the existing surface from every angle so that we have a high confidence level, not only for the Breeders\' Cup, but for the next couple of years,\" Charles said.

Santa Anita is scheduled to play host to the Breeders\' Cup in October, and again in 2009.

During its winter meeting, which closed Sunday, Santa Anita lost 11 days of racing because of the inability of its synthetic main track to drain properly. That surface was manufactured by Cushion Track.

In late January, another synthetic surface company, Pro-Ride, was brought in to try to make the surface viable. There were no cancellations after Pro-Ride reconstituted the Santa Anita main track. Charles said the work done by Pro-Ride\'s Ian Pearse was \"nothing short of amazing.\"

\"To take what he took, and make it useful for racing, to get through the rain and have a surface that was kinder for the horses, and do all that in four days - he saved the meeting,\" Charles said.

Still, Charles added, \"We want to see what we can improve upon, and do some environmental tests.\"

Charles said the tests are designed to make sure the surface is still draining properly, and to look at the asphalt base.

There also were complaints from the gate crew during the meet that the synthetic surface gave off a strong odor at times, a concern trainer Bruce Headley said he brought up at the meeting.

\"If everything\'s fine, we\'ll know which way we want to go,\" Charles said.

Charles has been in favor of synthetic surfaces, while Stronach has preferred dirt surfaces. Trainers who attended a closed-door meeting with Stronach on Sunday said Stronach initially seemed desirous of returning to a dirt surface, but was respectful of the wishes of the trainers, the majority of whom prefer a synthetic surface.

\"He wanted to hear what the trainers thought about the synthetic tracks,\" trainer Ed Moger Jr. said of Stronach. \"A lot of the trainers were strongly in favor of the synthetic. He seemed very concerned. He wants to do what\'s best. I\'m sure Mr. Stronach probably has a bad taste in his mouth over synthetics.\"

\"Most favor the way it is now, but some would like to return to dirt,\" trainer David Hofmans said. \"It was a good, open exchange. I\'m 100 percent in favor of synthetics. I think it\'s a godsend to the industry.\" - additional reporting by Steve Andersen

[richiebee]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looks like Frank Stronach will keep the rug after
> it gets strong support from the trainers.
 
 
> There also were complaints from the gate crew
> during the meet that the synthetic surface gave
> off a strong odor at times, a concern trainer
> Bruce Headley said he brought up at the meeting.
 

No Comment.

I would like to see the 2008 BC be run over the synthetic surface.

I would be interested to see if the trainers and owners of runners who have won
the major DIRT races during the season ship to SA for the synthetic BC.

I would be interested to see how the bettors would support a synthetic BC:
Handle up? Handle down? Handle unaffected?

Alan Shuback of DRF has already raised the concern that Euro trainers (even
those with top grass horses) might not turn out in large numbers at SA.
(Climate? Longer ship?)

Which all raises one interesting question in my mind: Which track will have the
vision and the audacity and the Brilliance! to schedule a series of high purse,
graded DIRT races to be run at about the same time as the synthetic BC is to be
run?

Imagine if Belmont/ Aqueduct or Churchill took all of their major graded Fall
races (Dirt and Turf) and ran them on one weekend sometime around BC time?

Ka-ching?

[miff]

Bee,

The results after the races of the Synth BC at Santa will be predictable. The winners will laud the surface as the savior of the game, the losers will yell that the surface is garbage.

Because it\'s the BC,even synt/poly haters will gamble though maybe not as heavily as they would on dirt.


Mike