Tomicito

[covelj70]

Anyone buying that he was sick for the Florida Derby like his connections said after the race?

It was very tough to make up any ground on the GP ice skating rink on Florida Derby day and he still came from last to 3rd (albeit far back).

If he wasn\'t 100% that day and the pace is hot and Churchill is alot more conducive to closers, at least we know he can get the distance.

Thoughts?

[belveondarockz]

my opinion is that he needed that one race (regardless of whatever the true situation is) last out here in the states.  i could definitly see a very nice race run by tomcito at the lexington stakes.  curious to see his ML

[ajkreider]

Put in a very fast work today 3F in 34.6 and galloped out in 46+.    Seems to be the class in the field for the Lexington at least.

[covelj70]

Horse is bred to the moon to go the distance so if he gets in, he would seem to be the most likely of the deep closers to get a piece in the derby (ala Steppenwolfer or Jazil) or even better than a piece if the race really falls apart

[ronwar]

Wow...those works would indicate he has more speed than he showed in that last race.  I think Belv makes a good point about him needing a race.  I could see where he demolishes this field and raises a few eye brows.

[miff]

Ran better than most thought, pre Fla derby. He outran his poor conformation and flailing stride.

Mike

[covelj70]

what kind of number do we think he got in the Fla Derby?

If BB got a 3.5- and he finished about 12 lengths in front of Tomcito and at the Fla Derby distance, 1 pt = about 2.5 lengths, then let\'s say 5 pts lower on the lengths back with maybe 2 pts the other way since Tomicito got caught wide.  So could Tomcito have run a 1 or a 0?  

If he did and he\'s able to pair that up this weekend, that would be a very live pattern heading into the Derby, no?

[EJXD2]

ronwar Wrote:
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> Wow...those works would indicate he has more speed than he showed in that last
> race.  I think Belv makes a good point about him needing a race. I could see where > he demolishes this field and raises a few eye brows.
>

The thing working against Tomcito is the 1 1/16-mile configuration at Keeneland. He\'ll need to be in the race more, as that long sustained move doesn\'t work with the massively short stretch. Obviously you can make up ground, but you can\'t be way out of it.

The other part of that is, if you do make a sustained move around the turn, then you\'re usually caught wide.

[BitPlayer]

covelj70 -

At 9f, one TG point is not 2.5 lengths; it\'s a little less than 2 lengths.

[covelj70]

whoops, sorry, thanks

[smalltimer]

EJXD2,
I got a question for you.  How much difference is there between the length of the stretch at Keeneland versus Gulfstream?  It might surprise you.

[smalltimer]

EJXD2,
Unless I misunderstand what you\'re saying... Are you under the impression that Keeneland has a \"massively\" shorter stretch than where Tomcito ran in the Fla Derby at Gulfstream?
I apologize if I\'ve read that incorrectly, but the stretch at Gulfstream is 952\' and the stretch at Keeneland is 1,236\' or 284\' l-o-n-g-e-r.
On a side note, that\'s a small reason why the good 3 year olds from the Fairgrounds put up the really big late pace numbers, cause they\'re coming from a track with a stretch of 1,346\'.  
You can verify my statement by looking at the big late pace numbers at Hawthorne in the recent Illinois Derby. The stretch there is a very long 1,320\'.
Obviously, if you were to compare Del Mar\'s Poly track stretch of 919\' and then run that same horse at Keeneland, that\'s a big difference on horses coming off the pace, they have an extra 317\' of straight running in the stretch.
Does Thorograph take this into account?  I don\'t know...I\'m just asking?

[BitPlayer]

Smalltimer -

I think EJXD2 is referring to the fact that 8.5f races at Keeneland (like the Lexington) finish at the 1/16th pole, so the stretch is effectively 330 feet shorter than it is in other races.

[EJXD2]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> EJXD2,
> Unless I misunderstand what you\'re saying... Are you under the impression that
> Keeneland has a \"massively\" shorter stretch than where Tomcito ran in the Fla
> Derby at Gulfstream? I apologize if I\'ve read that incorrectly, but the stretch
> at Gulfstream is 952\' and the stretch at Keeneland is 1,236\' or 284\' longer.
>
Of course, at the 1 1/16-mile distance, as the Lexington Stakes is, the stretch is 906 feet, which, granted, is only 4.8% shorter than Gulfstream, but I still find that long sustained closing moves don\'t play well at that configuration.

Look at Ready\'s Echo on Saturday.