Doingz and Dontingz

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its looking more and more like the first Poly Track to revert back to Dirt will be Santa Anita and not a meet too soon.

 http://www.drf.com/news/article/93817.html

The injury statistics don\'t justify the bedlam these unpredictable surfaces create. (Some studies show the fatal injuries are the same for both surfaces per 1000 starters.)I\'m quite sure the lesser trainers will contest the change, due to the phenomena that Poly levels their playing field to a great extent.

I for one can\'t wait for Santa Anita, Del Mar, Hollywood Park and Keeneland to get back to traditional Terra Firma. Let them test the stuff at Golden Gate for 20 years to see what we have.

Steve Haskin, whose opinion I respect, shook up his Derby Dozen after last week. He demoted Pyro from position number 1 to position number 11. Additionally, he promoted my favorite Pletcher horse of All Times, to number 1. Thats right, number 1.

Rumor has it that Zayat Stables will be entering Massive Drama as a pace mate for Z Datsun. Theres getting to be some pace in this Derby. Clearly one of the dangers for Big Brown would be to get too close to an ambitious pace too early and without a lot of seasoning, its possible he may not lay off sufficiently. To my mind, there lies the best chance of beating him.

I hope Court Vision takes a ton of Mott money. He is a Great Trainer. And you never know, If Giacomo won it, Court Vision certainly could!

Am also beginning to think that Pyro will go off in the 6-1 range. My Derby strategy is crystallizing. I don\'t even have to wait for Post Positions this year. I have my winner and my tosser, now all I have to do is fill in the rest of the exotics. A big part of my bet will depend upon the outcome of the Lexington tomorrow.

Z Chuckles

[Michael D.]

Cal needs at least 1 dirt track, and one needs to be SA.

come back in 5 years. if synth is the answer, so be it.

the industry is in recession; good decisions will be met with challenging outcomes -  bad decisions will be met with bankruptcy.

as for the Derby ctc - yes, Kent rating the colt is part of the puzzle. BB looks to be able to sit off a quick pace, but it\'s not 100% he will. remember, you got Giacomo because the good colt moved way too soon. put all the pieces together to collect - as usual.

[big18741]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:

>
> Am also beginning to think that Pyro will go off
> in the 6-1 range. My Derby strategy is
> crystallizing. I don\'t even have to wait for Post
> Positions this year. I have my winner and my
> tosser, now all I have to do is fill in the rest
> of the exotics. A big part of my bet will depend
> upon the outcome of the Lexington tomorrow.
>

Tomcito locks in with a 2nd place check.Third money might not cut it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Regarding Giacomo\'s Derby, all the paying spots came from well back.

I suppose you\'re talking about Bellamy Road, but I never believed he was ultra expectional. When others saw a long strider, I saw a very gawky awkward extension. When others saw unique speed, I saw a clumsy type that wanted the lead and chucked it when he couldn\'t get it.

I also think he ran the golden path on Derby Day and that was the only thing that kept him from getting beaten more than the 9 lengths he lost by.

The best horse in the race was clearly Afleet Alex. It just wasn\'t his day.

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Cal needs at least 1 dirt track, and one needs to
> be SA.
>
> come back in 5 years. if synth is the answer, so
> be it.
>
> the industry is in recession; good decisions will
> be met challenging outcomes -  bad decisions will
> be met with bankruptcy.
>
> as for the Derby ctc - yes, Kent rating the colt
> is part of the puzzle. BB looks to be able to sit
> off a quick pace, but it\'s not 100% he will.
> remember, you got Giacomo because the good colt
> moved way too soon. put all the pieces together to
> collect - as usual.

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The best horse in the race was clearly Afleet
> Alex.


that was my point.

if BB is 80% to be the best this year, what are his chances of winning? 50%? 30?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Ok, I see your reasoning.

To paraphrase \"A horse with superior speed figures at his best, may not win\".

Let\'s assume BJB is the best. What can beat him? Well, we are starting with the proposition that he is ready to run, so we\'ll rule out off form or bouncing, conceding defeat is the consequence within those conditions.

What else can beat him? \"Trouble\". I think hes too fast and nimble for racetrack obstacles to beat him, but there is always the matter of the \"break\". Seattle Slew could have lost his 1977 Derby with his poor break, but he was Seattle Slew. BJB is a good horse, but he lacks the seasoning of Seattle Slew (6 Starts... Funny ain\'t it? Slew was the most lightly raced horse in his Derby and now 6 starts is a pretty good foundation.) Anyway, if he\'s not a Great horse a bad break could certainly beat him. A la War Emblem in the 2002 Belmont Stakes.

BJB looks to be the top Figure horse, and I discuss pace only within the context that the pace is considered in regard to the Top Figs. If BJB is not a Slew and gets close to a 46 half he could be vulnerable down the lane.

Bias. I am of the strong opinion that Churchill in the spring can be a very biased track with certain paths being advantageous. Should such a condition arise and BJB run against that path bias, he could lose. This is speculative of course, but we\'ll have to see how the track plays and factor our observations accordingly.

All these factors being notwithstanding he is probably about 90% to win on speed figs and distance enabled. We won\'t know until race day how severely to downgrade those chances.

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The best horse in the race was clearly Afleet
> > Alex.
>
>
> that was my point.
>
> if BB is 80% to be the best this year, what are
> his chances of winning? 50%? 30?

[richiebee]

At the Chuckhold:

Thanks for the informative link, and the clever homage to \"Derby Doings\", a DRF
institution founded by the great columnist Joe Hirsch.

AS DRF\'s top correspondent and Joe Namath\'s roommate in the 60s, its fair to say
that JH was pretty close to the action.

Sadly in the DRF article there is no mention of the powers that be in California
soliciting the input of horseplayers, from the smallest minnow to the mightiest
whale, in making their decision. Where is the NTRA, who told us that they were
going to provide a voice for the horseplayers?

I think the mandated \"follytrackization\" of the major California facilities made
no sense from a business point of view, and still contend that bribery or even
blackmail had to play a part in it.

[fkach]

>as for the Derby ctc - yes, Kent rating the colt is part of the puzzle. BB looks to be able to sit off a quick pace, but it\'s not 100% he will. remember, you got Giacomo because the good colt moved way too soon. put all the pieces together to collect - as usual.<

I think that\'s one of the major risks. If War Pass was the only other speed, BB could allow WP to get the lead and simply stalk. However, it looks like there may be several speed/stalker types in the race. IMO, that raises the probability that WP is going to have to work harder to get the lead because a lot of horses are going to be trying to get favorable position. That kind of scenario tends to draw all the close up horses into a faster than ideal pace set up.

The other risk is being very lightly raced and going 10F. I don\'t think we have conclusive proof, but there is some evidence that some of these very lightly raced horses are not ready for 10F so early in their careers off just a couple of starts.

At this point, to me, it looks like he\'s clearly the best horse. It\'s a matter of weighing the above risks, the possibility that someone could move right past him, vs. the odds he will be in two weeks. I think it\'s going to be hard to bet him and hard to toss him totally unless you are in the camp that thinks he\'s going to bounce to the moon.

[smalltimer]

kfach,
I think that\'s a realistic analysis.  If Kent has already decided that Brown is \"much the best\", that usually means losing some ground and waiting to push the button at any time in the race.  I\'ve always found that a dangerous situation when a jock thinks the race is his.
We don\'t know the post assignments yet, but one things for sure, by getting out of the gate clean we know War Pass is gonna be on the engine, and so are several others. I tend to wonder how Brown will react if he does run up and get hooked for quite a while.  If Kent decides to take it to War Pass early, that\'s probably gonna be a real big mistake.  No doubt, the mile and a quarter appears out of War Pass\' range, but he also ain\'t chopped liver.  He\'s capable of running somebody\'s butt off for the first 1/16th or better.  
Just a weak opinion at this point...  It\'ll be interesting to see who actually makes the field and the post positions.  
Good post kfach.

[Silver Charm]

People at these Tracks did not do their home work and figured the toughest group of people in the world would still buy into it.

That being a bunch of gamblers.

Polytrack/Synthetic as far as being the future of the sport is a fraud. That does not mean there isn\'t a place for it. Just not a carte blanche transition to the surface for 75% of the industry.

The numbers at Keeneland mean everything except for what the Executive said they meant. Gamblers hate Polytrack for now. Will they like it in five years. Maybe, but by then they may have gone on to start wagering on other sports and may never come back. Polytrack has rendered the Blue Grass as irrelevant. This is a shame because it has great tradition, history and was a springboard of sorts to create a buzz about the upcoming Derby.

Nobody was feeling that after last week and nobody will be feeling it after today. The entire path to the Triple Crown, the one identifiable foundation of racing to the everyday fan, has been disrupted and or destroyed.    

As far as the Derby goes Big Brown will have to sit five off down the backstretch and eat dirt or be wide the entire way. He also may have to split horses and be on a push button if the time or opportunity occurs. If you see all of that in his his PP\'s and can get 7/2 then my advice is to take it..............

[smalltimer]

Silver Charm,
Very astute observation.  Deciding that the players would just automatically warm up to Poly/synth was an unrealistic expectation.  They apparently think gamblers \"have\" to have some action, regardless of the circumstances.
Those powers that be simply do not take into account the reality that all serious gamblers want a value for their risk, plus, they wanna feel like they have an even shot at it.  Everywhere you turn there are good cappers who have just abandoned the Poly/synth style of racing, and you are correct, they may find another form of entertaining for their gambling dollars.
It\'s possible the only way that Poly/synth tracks get modified is if the handle just goes away.  There are tracks and circuits where the artificials make sense, i.e. Turfway, Golden Gate, Presique.  But how can the industry toss out the Santa Anita\'s, Keeneland\'s of the world with the HUGE handles they have?  
I\'m interested in what Santa Anita does when the meet is over.  I really think they will go to a regular dirt surface.  Otherwise, come Breeder\'s Cup day, the main plays will be the turf races.  How reasonable would it be to assume Asmussen will show up with Curlin and \"hope\" that he handles the surface?  You gonna take a risk of the most high profile animal on the planet not even suiting up for the big day?  I wouldn\'t want scenario if I were making a surface decision in So Cal.
Plus, Santa Anita is also hosting the BC next year.  Those in the decision making process need to think things out.
Last point.  Handicapping this year\'s Derby is a real pain in the ass.  It\'s always been a labor of love for us everyday players.  A great conversation piece, a gazillion points of view.  Now, 95% or more of the player\'s are \"hunching\" that the Cal invaders either can or can\'t handle the surface.  What the hell is that all about?  Its the Derby, its tradition, send the best 3 year olds in the country for one race when the whole world is watching.  Some things die hard.

[miff]

A legit questions re BB is whether he will:

A.Sit off horses

B.Handle kickback if he does get caught in behind horses.Being very quick/ tactical, that is somewhat unlikely.

With regard to B, sitting off, BB since early on has been very aggressive when any horse tries to head him.I can assure you this outfit will encourage Kent to ride him likes he\'s the best.BB has never been hot/rank but somewhat green snaking off the turn even in workouts( green or infirm? pick one). Pat Reynolds said this when he trained BB for months.

BB is an enigma, waiting to explode again or implode? What to do with a horse much the fastest going in.


Mike

[covelj70]

This isn\'t true.  Closing Argument was close to the pace.  He ran the best race that day.  I am inclined to believe the race will far apart but that doesn\'t mean everyone near the pace will finish out of the money.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Closing Argument was approximately 5 lengths back after six furlongs and was on the golden path.

The pace was hot and the money finishers did come from off pace. The horses that ran 4-5 paths wide finished better than the inside runners. That was Closing arguments path. I\'m not going to take the time to revisit path bias, too much going on for that. Giacomo caught that path as well. As did Bellamy Road, but he faired the most poorly of the Golden Path runners.



covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This isn\'t true.  Closing Argument was close to
> the pace.  He ran the best race that day.  I am
> inclined to believe the race will far apart but
> that doesn\'t mean everyone near the pace will
> finish out of the money.