Insightful analysis Jimbo.
I think you hit the nail on the head. War Pass would have run whatever fraction necessary to maintain his lead. The others would have run to stay close. War Pass\'s absence means that in all likelihood Recapturetheglory or Massive Drama will set the pace and it will likely be clicks slower, enabling the stalkers to run a couple clicks slower too.
Each year I read heartbreak stories of how future bets have tubed. With every future you also dutch your odds. This year, I\'ve seen the host lose a couple. I\'ve seen Oaks futures on Eight Belles stand in mortal jeopardy. I know its fun to select the winner early and have done so, but I learned my lesson on Anees. That bath wrote me off future bets forever. Pick the winner on race day and factor the exotics correctly and you can dwarf the return on any future. (I also have to say, I agreed that War Pass had a big chance at 14-1 and I would have included him in all non win spots. Now my wager got easier.)
Pyro\'s sheet is anything but forward looking. And you need double digit odds to think seriously about including him. The value in this Derby is dumping Pyro from all paying spots.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> War Pass being out does do a few things.
>
> 1. As long as War Pass was in the starting gate
> he had a \"puncher\'s chance\" to win. He had that
> negative 3 last year, which means he was the ONLY
> horse in this race that could run with Big Brown,
> if both horses ran their best figures. Now, I
> didn\'t like War Pass, and I thought he was a solid
> bet against off what seemed to be an \"x-x-x\"
> pattern this year, but we also know that Jerry
> liked the horse and gave him at least as good a
> shot as Big Brown to win, while just one person\'s
> opinion, the fact that it was somebody who does
> this for a living, means the horse would likely
> had garnered some attention at the windows from
> alot of people.
>
> 2. I know this is a Thorograph board, but this
> defection also affects the PACE of the race.
> (although now that we have \"race shapes\", PACE
> doesn\'t have to be a 4 letter word here!!
> Depending on draw and break, it would have seemed
> pretty likely to me that War Pass would have cut
> out the fractions on Derby day. To me, that
> greatly mitigated the chance of any of the other
> pace horses except Big Brown, to win the race.
> Without having seen the last figures of
> Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, Bob\'s Blackjack, or
> Gayego, I would likely not have used them in the
> race, as it seems to be their best races were on
> or near the lead. And with War Pass needing the
> lead, Kent feeling compelled to not let them get
> away from him early, plus the presence of those 4
> or 5 other speeds, it started to look like the
> Monarchos Derby to me. That changes now. I need
> to see the figures of some of these other speeds.
> If he ran fast enough in the Illinois Derby and
> gets a cozy inside draw, maybe Recapturetheglory
> can do a War Emblem.
>
> 3. Not sure who posted it, but whoever came up
> with the logic that War Pass being out makes Big
> Brown a BIGGER bet against is probably just
> looking for reasons to bet against Big Brown.
> Which is fine, because there ARE reasons to bet
> against Big Brown, but War Pass being out is NOT
> one of them. How can the fact that the horse most
> likely to make the pace suicidal early and also
> the only horse with a top in the same league as
> Big Brown, NOT being in the race, make things
> harder on Big Brown? I guess you could argue
> \"odds board\", but I would expect this actually has
> minimal impact on the odds board. Because of what
> has happened with favorites over the last 30 years
> in the Derby, there are a fairly large number of
> players who won\'t bet the favorite under any
> circumstances. I don\'t see Big Brown going off at
> least than 2-1 in a 20 horse fields, no matter who
> scratches.
>
> I don\'t think too many War Pass backers are now
> going to jump on the Big Brown bandwagon. I would
> bet dollars to donuts that TGJB doesn\'t switch
> from his 14-1 on War Pass to Big Brown. As a
> matter of fact, I probably don\'t have to buy the
> seminar this year, although I will anyway. I can
> hear the comments now. \"Solid two year old
> campaign for Pyro, getting down to a very fast top
> in his last race. IF you draw a line through the
> polytrack race, which in today\'s racing game is
> easy to do, Pyro is pointing right back at his
> negative 1, which when you factor in the very
> likely bounce of Big Brown, it makes Pyro the most
> likely winner of the Derby and you will get 8-1
> instead of the 4-1 you would have gotten had Pyro
> run well on Poly.\"
>
> JB, sorry for pre-plagiarizing you, whether I am
> right or wrong!
