ROTW Question

[BitPlayer]

There are a couple of mentions in the ROTW analysis of impending bounces by horses who last ran on poly.  Given that poly plays a bit like turf and is advertised to be physically kinder to horses than dirt (at least in some respects), one might expect that bounces would be less frequent on poly than on dirt.  Has that not been your experience?

[TGJB]

That\'s a good question. Off the top of my head, I would have to say no, that horses are bouncing on poly, but they might be running in a tighter range.

[miff]

\"That\'s a good question. Off the top of my head, I would have to say no, that horses are bouncing on poly, but they might be running in a tighter range\"


JB,
.....A sharp TG Cali player claims poly/synth runners(esp closers) have a tendency not to bounce as often as on dirt.I feel that may be due to the normal closers bias at most synth/poly surfaces.

The tighter range of which you speak sounds turfy, yet you feel that dirt horses can generally run as fast on synth/poly, performance fig wise.Something about that does not seem to fit.


Mike

[TGJB]

Where did I say that dirt horses run as fast on poly? I cast doubt on several dirt horses trying poly in ROTW.

[miff]

\"Where did I say that dirt horses run as fast on poly?\"


JB,

Was not referring to ROTW.I posted last summer that I did not think that dirt horses were running there normal performance fig on poly/synth, that they were running slower(as most would switching to say, turf). You said you saw no evidence of that and that dirt horses were generally transferring their dirt perf figs.This was during that pathetic Del Mar meet when you suggested that it was all about track speed.

I believe you cited Student Council as an example, remember now? or did you mean on synth they run as fast, but not poly.



Mike

[TGJB]

First of all, yes, poly is slower than dirt, as a rule. So even if dirt horses are running their race they will run slower in absolute terms. Second, no, not all dirt horses run their race on poly, and I\'m pretty sure I never said they did.

[miff]

Ok, Thanks.

FWIW, someone just did every race on the synt/poly run in California and found that Beyer figs are slower by up to 5 points consistently for app 90% of all horses that have been on both sufaces more than 2 times. Notwithstanding that ground and weight are not included, there is still strong evidence from a credible fig maker that most horses run slower on poly and synth, performance fig wise.

I think this is somewhat supported by the tops we are seeing run by Cali shippers switching to dirt. Will Col John run 3 points faster on dirt and are you factoring this into your derby thinking.


Mike

[fkach]

Miff,

I think some of the issue is related to the narrower range of figures like on turf. I am pretty sure I understand what\'s going on. You can email me privately if you want to discuss it because a discussion of Beyer figures is probably a bit too far off topic here.

[smalltimer]

Miff/fkach,
I ran a pretty indepth study about 4-5 months ago on poly vs. dirt figures. I\'ll try to find that pdf file I created and tell you what I found.
It was pretty enlightening to me at the time, and has held true for several months now.