Pyro-Lost in the Fog

[Silver Charm]

This horse is offically a throw-out for me. Which means he probably wins with how I have been going lately on my predictions.

I think he is a Fly So Free. Early developer who beat the same horses early this year he was beating last year. But now they grew up and he didn\'t.  

Solid opportunity to toss a horse at less than 10-1 and use much longer.

Take it.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44721

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I tossed Lost in the Fog out of the B.C. Sprint with abandon. This one I\'m more leery of only because the host thinks he\'s sitting on a big one. Even using his figures though, I just don\'t see him fast enough when in with bona fide competition. The question is \"has he matured\". On the figures he hasn\'t, and a bet on Pyro at low odds is a bet hoping that he shows more than he has. And off that Bluegrass?

Homey don\'t play that.



Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This horse is offically a throw-out for me. Which
> means he probably wins with how I have been going
> lately on my predictions.
>
> I think he is a Fly So Free. Early developer who
> beat the same horses early this year he was
> beating last year. But now they grew up and he
> didn\'t.  
>
> Solid opportunity to toss a horse at less than
> 10-1 and use much longer.
>
> Take it.
>
> http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44721

[Silver Charm]

He is also another stretch runner in a race loaded with stretch runners and no early speed. Needs a trip even if he is fit.

The rest guys should be salavating at this one because for the last two months Pyro has gotten plenty of it.

Keep in mind the same crew he was beating in Louisiana Gayego beat in Ark. I\'m not sure Gayego could warm Colonel John up right now.

[fkach]

The more I think about this race the less playable it becomes. I have very significant ?s about just about every major horse in the race. Either I\'m not sure how good they are (because they\'ve been running on artificial, best race on wet) or I am not sure how well they are going to run (because of their preparation for the race) or both.

Some might think that makes it a good betting race, but I think that has the potential to make the results quite chaotic.

BB winning by 5 makes perfect sense. But watching him tire through the stretch to finish well beaten would be no shock at all.

If Pyro turns out to be a slug, I won\'t be shocked. But I won\'t be shocked if he returns to his best form either.

I could go down the list of all the major horses and have similar comments.

Personally, I like when I have one or more short priced horses I feel certain are going to run poorly (to bet against) or one or more that are better than they look on paper that I believe can at least hit the board (to key on).

I\'m still searching for either.

[fkach]

>Keep in mind the same crew he was beating in Louisiana Gayego beat in Ark. I\'m not sure Gayego could warm Colonel John up right now.<

The logical conclusion when evaluating Gayego and Colonel John is that CJ was the better horse out in CA and Gayego demonstrated that he fits in perfectly with the horses that Pyro was beating with an impressive win. So CJ must fit well also.

But there\'s another possible scenario.

How about this one?

CJ was the better horse on Cushion because it tends to favor late run horses like him over speedier types like Gayego (especially in routes). So when Gayego was put on a more speed favoring real dirt surface, he figured to move forward and did. But perhaps a horse like CJ will not.

I don\'t think that\'s an outrageous conclusion given race developments out in CA on Cushion vs. the typical dirt surface and the running styles of the two horses.

None of that has anything to do with a race at 10F with a specific pace setup like the Derby, but I think when horses are switching surfaces it gets really complicated to use one as a line for another. That may be doubly true when there are question marks about whether horses from CA are improving their speed figures on the switch from synthetic to dirt. Maybe speedier horses have a better chance of moving forward than closers??

[big18741]

It\'s a great betting race.

No shockers with last years top three and the Super paid fabulous.

Besides,what\'s wrong with a little chaos?

Keep digging.

[BitPlayer]

fkach -

Don\'t disagree with your conclusion, but a couple of points to note:

Even without having seen the figs for the race, I\'m pretty sure that the biggest forward move in the Arkansas Derby belonged to Indian Sun, a closer.

When they were both running in California, Gayego had faster figs than Colonel John.

[ronwar]

Once all the horses get to Churchills and we get a few reports about how they are doing or how they are not doing for that matter, hopefully that will help seperate a few.  The derby is always a great betting race because of the payouts,  you just have to guess right!

I\'m leaning towards tossing Pyro and Colonel John and pretty much every horse that is considered a closer.  I\'m guessing the horses up front are better than the ones chasing them.  I\'m of the opinion the pace will not be extremely hot, with War Pass out and Massive Drama not showing up.  I think all except Recapturetheglory will be happy tracking close by.  I see a big gap between the four up front and the rest of the field. When they turn for home, I\'m betting at least 3 of the 4 will still be around at the wire, being chased by slow rats.

[TGJB]

CTC-- are you capable of making a post that isn\'t about you?

[TGJB]

This is not inside information-- I have not asked Asmussen about Pyro, and would not, and if he did tell me something I wouldn\'t post it. But there\'s a rumor going around that he will not be entered. We\'ll see.

Interesting race. Chaotic yes, but interesting. Boy, are there some live longshots.

Derby/Oaks probables on-line later today, seminar next Wednesday night. I have a lot to say.

[Uncle Buck]

Looking forward to the seminar as usual particularly the analysis of the chaulk - BB.

[Silver Charm]

Glad someone has a little enthusiasm about the Derby. Maybe it will begin to spill over.

If Pyro is going in the Derby then why was his jockey riding his workmate???

If Pyro is going in the Derby then why was he working at Kee when Z Fortune from the same barn worked at CD???

If Pyro does go in the Derby and he wins then this would be one of the best \"He may be sore\" rumors since Monarchos. And TGJB you are not the first to imply this.

Looking forward to the analysis. Even though the more I look the clearer this Derby begins to get.

[fkach]

>When they were both running in California, Gayego had faster figs than Colonel John.<

In his sprint right?

I was thinking in terms of their route numbers, but maybe my memory is off and I\'m thinking of Beyer figures or something

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry I got my Sunglasses and Thorograph Headband on.

I don\'t interpret it as the fact I\'m wearing something, rather, its what I\'m wearing.

TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- are you capable of making a post that isn\'t
> about you?

[ROBERT49]

are we even sure it was Pyro that had the workout? it was in the fog, not timed, seen by asmussen only(?),on the inside of noonmark so as to be not visible,...this sounds very fishy to me.