Real Shame Eight Belles is going in the Derby

[covelj70]

Just looked at the Derby/Oaks special. What a shame Porter is going to run Eight Belles in the Derby.  She would probably be 50% likely to win the Oaks given that a) she is the fastest filly with a solid pattern, b) the other horses who are close to being as fast have only run on poly and probably don\'t want the distance, and c) the pace would set up really well for her.  I would make her more than 50% if she hadn\'t \"bi\" in her last and she hadn\'t run so often this year without a break.

There are a bunch of other horses just as fast or a bit faster than her in the derby, even with the 1 point she gets for the 5 lbs in weight.  She\'s no more than 5-10% likely to win the Derby.

I am not just saying all of this because I will have to tear up my Oaks futures ticket on her.  I am totally bitter but I think the numbers support the fact that she should run in the Oaks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Never bet futures, but with some empathy for your plight, look at it from their perspective.

War Pass is out.

Pyro is coming off a clunker and slow preps, training under cover of darkness on the same track he couldn\'t handle.

BJB is inexperienced, coming off a career top, and rumors about the condition of his feet are circulating.  

Colonel John has never run on dirt. Can you imagine? You own a Derby horse, plan a Derby start for him and never once prep him on a genuine track, sending him into the biggest race of his life unfamiliar with how he\'ll fair on the surface? Kinda like taking a career turf horse and starting him in the BC Classic without a dirt race.

I think they\'ll need a little luck, but these fillies can win this thing.

No One remembers who won the Oaks. They run it on Friday for crying out loud.

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just looked at the Derby/Oaks special. What a
> shame Porter is going to run Eight Belles in the
> Derby.  She would probably be 50% likely to win
> the Oaks given that a) she is the fastest filly
> with a solid pattern, b) the other horses who are
> close to being as fast have only run on poly and
> probably don\'t want the distance, and c) the pace
> would set up really well for her.  I would make
> her more than 50% if she hadn\'t \"bi\" in her last
> and she hadn\'t run so often this year without a
> break.
>
> There are a bunch of other horses just as fast or
> a bit faster than her in the derby, even with the
> 1 point she gets for the 5 lbs in weight.  She\'s
> no more than 5-10% likely to win the Derby.
>
> I am not just saying all of this because I will
> have to tear up my Oaks futures ticket on her.  I
> am totally bitter but I think the numbers support
> the fact that she should run in the Oaks.

[smalltimer]

Chuckles,
Every point an excellent point.  Lots of mysteries await next Saturday.
Most of us have played Derby\'s since we were kids.  Has there ever been more unknown factors to contend with?  Not even close.
The guys that fill up their wallets after this one should be commended, and given real credence as a handicapper. If you crack this mystery, I\'ll be one of the first to congratulate you.  
Having said that, you and I are headed in similar thinking, so is that scary or what?
Have a great one, I wish you the VERY BEST LUCK in this big dance.

[covelj70]

Great points

The one thing though is that Eight Belles doesn\'t yet have a grade 1 on her resume.  One would think that would play a role in Porter\'s decision on the Oaks.  T

Thanks for the thoughts

[richiebee]

Chuckuine Risk:

I\'m wondering why, given Eight Belles\' love for the Hot Springs oval, owner R.
Porter did not throw EB against the boys in the Ark Derby. Not like there were
any world beaters in that race, although I know you fancy to an extent the
Siphon sired NYBSR in next week\'s Derby.

To repeat a little scrap I have been spouting ad clownfinitum, both recent
distaff Derby darlings had their final prep vs 3YOs of the masculine kind:
Genuine Risk was 3rd in the Wood (second?) and Winning Colors blitzed the boys
in the SA Derby. 134 year history of the Derby and I\'ve got a 3 year sample for
you.

Remember the quote from trainer Jones: Eight Bs would go to the Derby because
(a)she was doing so well and (b) because the owner really wanted to go to the
Derby. To translate this into English from trainerspeak, simply reverse \"(a)\"
and \"(b)\". The owner wants to go. The numbers back him up this year, and he
enters his charge against a field which as yet has not shown recent brilliance
save one. I think if it was up to the trainer here, EB would be an Oaks entrant.

Numbers wise if I will go 4-6 deep in terms of wagering, she would not be any
higher than selection 6 on any of my tickets. And don\'t forget, EB will be
getting lots of support for all the wrong reasons (a la Hilary C.) (another
filly who did OK coming out of Arkansas, but seems to be struggling against the
boys), possibly artificially diminishing her value.

Can she translate her sharp OP form to CD?

[Uncle Buck]

Clowninfinitum. BRILLIANT

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:

>
> I am not just saying all of this because I will
> have to tear up my Oaks futures ticket on her.  I
> am totally bitter but I think the numbers support
> the fact that she should run in the Oaks.

Sorry to hear about that Oaks future ticket...Frustrating when you know they are doing the wrong thing but they do it anyway...
I remember watching that last race with Eight Belles.  I thought she was life and death to hold on in her last...The horse that finished second closing on the outside seemed to be moving better in the end...So why are they putting her in this longer race against the boys?  Chuck E. Tee makes good points in his post but that filly just does not seem good enough in any way to win the derby.  She does not loook like a Winning Colors or Genuine Risk to me...She just looks like an ordinary stakes Filly and ordinary fillies do not win the derby...I\'ll be surprised if she does not finish in the bottom 5 in the derby...

This derby is a horror handicapping wise.  
I saw the replays of Big Brown, How am I playing that horse as the favorite in the derby when he does the electric slide down the lane in his races and is stretching out ?...not happening..
I loved Pyro but that last race was scary, no run whatsoever does not bode well and I would not be surprised if he hurt himself in that race and did not run
Smooth Air is getting a lot of talk on this board but he still seems like a miler. That move he made on the turn was a milers run and then he was done...Although at the 90-1 that some of you have him at I can\'t blame you for being excited..GOOD LUCK..
Colonel John I can\'t really knock because he should have no issues with the distance and has the pedigree for dirt racing.  I hope he does not win though because it might make people think Poly is okay as a prep and make people think it is okay to keep the surface around..but I might fall on him by default unless the odds are ridiculous..

Can\'t make a decision until post position draws are complete. This is one of the most wide open derbys in a long time but also one of the most boring..

[smalltimer]

richiebee,
That\'s some good stuff, including the Hillary analogy.
I\'ve looked at Eight Belles, does it look like she\'ll be a \"shot\" or is she more of a \"chaser?\"  I\'m not sure she can close the deal against the males, especially the Big Brown one.
I\'m guessing Hillary will get all teary eyed when the horses enter the track to that famous song, \"My Own New York Home.\"

[magicnight]

\"Kinda like taking a career turf horse and starting him in the BC Classic without a dirt race.\"

Kinda like Arcangues ($269.20), eh?

Time to throw darts at Poly runners with double digit odds.

[ronwar]

I was thinking Giant Causeway, but he finished second in the Breeders Cup to, um, what was that horses name?  Ah, Tiznow.

[Eight Belles]

Alina is a filly who ran a 100 Beyer in her prior race, and she got a real easy time of it by herself on the front end.  Unlike others, I liked seeing that Eight Belles could overcome closing into slow fractions and overtaking a nice filly who had everything her own way.  I also liked seeing that she\'s one who\'d fight for the win, we didn\'t know that about her before.

Pure Clan\'s another excellent filly that she beat, twice now.

I\'m not expecting her to be the favorite or second choice, but I don\'t get the lack of respect for her, particularly on a forum inhabited by people who look at numbers.  Her numbers are competitive with if not better than every horse in the field except for Brown.

[covelj70]

I just spit out my lunch with I read this electric slide line, that is awesome.

one prediction here is that our host is going to make a surprise pick and like Tale of Ekati to hit the board next Saturday.

I like TOE as well but I hope JB picking him (if he does) doesn\'t knock the odds down too much.  I want 20-1 on him.

[smalltimer]

Guys,
Remember you may have some 50 and older guys in here.  When that stuff shows up in the room, off goes my popup blocker and I punch in \"chicks\" to see what you\'re talking about.  Took me 10 minutes to get outta there.
Be more careful.

[Lost Cause]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Guys,
> Remember you may have some 50 and older guys in
> here.  When that stuff shows up in the room, off
> goes my popup blocker and I punch in \"chicks\" to
> see what you\'re talking about.  Took me 10 minutes
> to get outta there.
> Be more careful.


10 minutes??...not bad it usually takes me three minutes and i\'m \"finished\" with those sites...

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Respectfully disagree.  While I know that Winning Colors and Genuine Risk data points are certainly true, the game has changed a bit since then.  If possible, thoroughbreds have gotten even more fragile since then. (statistics point that out).

Running a filly, even an amazon filly against colts, on dirt, at classic distances, takes a lot out of a filly.  Please see Rags to Riches last year.  

There is one bullet in the gun, I believe.  If you think you can win the Kentucky Derby by ambushing an inferior crop of 3 year old colts, do it.  Winning the Arkansas Derby has no real value.  Nobody remembers who won the Arkansas Derby.  I am not sure I would be trying the colts with my filly, but if I did, i would be doing what they are doing.  Prep against the fillies, then try and step up and beat the colts ONE TIME.