Tale of Slow Ratty

[MonmouthGuy]

My visual reaction to the Wood was to throw out all of the horses based on the slow crawl home after the blistering first 1/2. The final 3/8s was a waltz, and ToE was life and death to get by a game but obviously laboring War Pass. On top of that, Prado is jumping off to ride a poly specialist. However, after reviewing his TG pattern and Tagg\'s last 90 day figs, I am starting to rethink my initial reaction.

If he pairs his Wood or runs a new top, isn\'t he very likely to hit the board against this group of 3YOs, and looking at his figs, isn\'t he substantially more likely to do that then revert to a 5?

Is he a must use underneath or even a possible key?

Talk me off the ledge b/c I had him as a toss before last night.

[ronwar]

It is funny reading your post, because I had exactly the same thoughts when I pulled it up last night.  He wasn\'t even on my radar. The number surprised me and got me to thinking.  I just finished looking at all his races, and in Louisiana Derby, he was cut off at the start losing all chance in my opinion.  It was not a bad race once you consider the layoff. Then in the wood he went 22.2 that first quarter and had every right to be tired. I\'m sure they wanted to stay in striking range of war pass in that one, but was a little too close. I just saw his work in 1:00.2B.  I love Sunday Silence on the bottom! He is quick enough to stay close and has shown he can take dirt in his face and pass horses in the lane.  Scoot over, I\'m on this ledge with you!

[covelj70]

I am 100% with you.  Hadn\'t thought too much of him before last night and then I looked at the sheets and he\'s probably the best combination in the field of a) fast, and b) likely to come close to his top.  The ones that are faster are all likely to bounce and with the exception of Big Brown, they couldn\'t afford to bounce and still beat TOE is he pairs his top which he would seem to have every right to.

The I started digging more and we have a) pedigree (Sunday Silence dam sire and inbred to Northern Dancer), b) foundation as a two year old, c) a horse with the right stalking style, d) a trainer who\'s been there before, and e) a big work this AM at Keenland that tells me the horse came out of the race well and is fit and happy.

I would have rather had Prado than Coa but he is acceptable and he knows the horse from riding him in the Breeders Cup.

To the extent the knock on the horse is the slow closing fractions, what about the 22 and change quarter that he ran in the middle of the Wood?

Think we get 20-1?

[covelj70]

this is funny, we posted almost the exact same thing at almost the exact same time.

scary

[ronwar]

I think we\'ll get at least 20-1.  I checked with Beyer, he only gave him a 93.  Most will see that and the slow closing fraction and say toss.

[covelj70]

I have to say TOE\'s sheet numbers/pattern just infused a whole new level of excitement into this Derby for me.