The Derby Bounce Picture?

[Uncle Buck]

From what I\'m hearing, Big Brown is atop or near the top of everyone\'s \"Most Likely to Bounce\" Derby list. After glancing at the sheets today, I see several that jumped further, some a lot further forward, than he did in his last race. Adriano took an 8 point forward leap in winning the Lane\'s End with Z Fortune and Recapture TG jumping 6 points forward. Others like TOE and and Gayego moved 5 points forward with BB only going forward 4 points.

Am I missing something or is he about 8th down the line in the \"Most Likely to Bounce\" pecking order? Help me understand please.

[covelj70]

Uncle Buck,

I think the two things that make the bounce likely for Big Brown are just how big the number is under the \"young horses tend to react to big numbers theory\" and also the fact that he bi AND bo down the stretch which is never a good sign.

That said, it looks to me like Smooth Air, Z Fortune and Gaeygo are all just as likely to bounce as Big Brown is and they don\'t have any wiggle room to bounce and still be in contention.  Especially troubling for Z Fortune and Gaeygo is the short rest.

As fas as Tale of Ekati, the fact that he broke through in his last race after 5 straight 5 and change efforts is actually very encouraging.  I think that breaktrough would actually suggest he\'s more likey to repeat than regress.

I am struggling with the likelihood of a bounce for Adriano and Monba.  How much do I believe there previous races were real efforts?

[TreadHead]

For me, the reason BB is likely to bounce has just as much to do with the circumstances of his last race as it does his figures.  

Look thru the history of the last 10-15 years of GP front-running alw/stakes winners and how they fared in the derby.  Their record is dismal.  The only one who did anything was Barbaro, and in his Fla Derby, he stalked the pace setter (who finished 2nd to last in the KY derby) and showed a ton of heart and class to get by him in the stretch.  Hal\'s Hope, Vicar, Empire Maker, Pulpit, Lils Lad all come to mind.

On the other hand, horses who have closed against the GP speed bias with good results, like Captain Bodgit, Monarchos, Invisible Ink, have moved on to some decent showings in the derby.

Big Brown showed a ton of speed on a speed favoring track.  That\'s great.  Given the fact we have no idea what his heart is like and the fact that he will be challenged on the front for this race and be racing in company (unlike the Fla Derby), I have seen far to many other horses melt in this change in scenario for me to get anywhere near this horse at 3-1 or whatever he might go off at.

And that\'s not even considering the bounce possibility based on the figures.  As JB will probably say, for 3 year olds the amount of the improvement may not always as important as what the figure actually was.  A horse improving from 3 to -1 will be far more likely to bounce than a horse improving from 7 to 3 based on what I\'ve seen.

I play against him even if he has titanium hooves, but apparently hooves are another potential question mark on him as well.  I was sad to see War Pass go out and disappointed to hear Pyro may not make it as well.  I was salivating on the opportunity to bet a race with a huge pool where you can throw out the top 3 public horses.  Hopefully, those folks will all move to Big Brown and not to some \"wise guy\" horse that is actually more likely to win.

[ronwar]

Its Simple. BB will be 5/2 or there abouts and TOE will be 20/1 or there abouts.  Now, I like both of those horses. A part of me hopes BB is the real deal, but I will not be betting him $500 across the board, although he will be in my exacta, tri, and super mix.

Your list has 6 or 7 that could bounce, why take the shortest price?

[Uncle Buck]

I feel its worth taking the short price on top and making the $$$$$$$$ in the exacta, tri, super and pick 4 if you beleive in your heart and head BB is best. He\'s getting more rest than all of these coming in save for Adriano and he\'s had 3 routine 5F breezes leading in. Ronwar\'s point about taking the shortest price is very valid but I can\'t get past BB\'s giant, effortless strides. There is a rumor going around he has a giant abnormal heart too. Big Red had one of those and call me crazy but BB reminds me of Big Red a little.

Don\'t you also have to take into account Dutrow\'s magic? Benny the Bull and Kip DeVille haven\'t bounced to my knowledge. Diamond Stripes even won a Grade 1 in Dubai. Tricky Ricky seems to have the golden touch with his big horses. I don;t remember him being this high on a horse since Saint Liam. We all know what he did...

[BitPlayer]

Uncle Buck -

Adding to what has already been posted, I think it\'s a mistake to measure a jump-up from the horse\'s prior race, as you appear to be doing, rather than the horse\'s prior top. In some cases (like Big Brown) it\'s the same thing, but in others (like Adriano) it\'s not.  Adriano\'s Fountain of Youth, for whatever reason (was it the dirt or just a bad day in the paddock?) clearly did not reflect the ability level he had established on non-dirt surfaces.

[TGJB]

Right.

[miff]

\"Big Brown showed a ton of speed on a speed favoring track\"



.... march 29th at GP was rated close to honest/neutral(171), there certainly was not a speed bias.


Mike

[ajkreider]

Empire Maker finished 2nd I believe.

And anyway, all that you mention bar Barbaro were on the old surface and configuration.  Scat Daddy stalked the pace last year (Stormello, if memory serves) and he did nothing in the Derby.

[Michael D.]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For me, the reason BB is likely to bounce has just
> as much to do with the circumstances of his last
> race as it does his figures.  
>
> Look thru the history of the last 10-15 years of
> GP front-running alw/stakes winners and how they
> fared in the derby.  Their record is dismal.  The
> only one who did anything was Barbaro, and in his
> Fla Derby, he stalked the pace setter (who
> finished 2nd to last in the KY derby) and showed a
> ton of heart and class to get by him in the
> stretch.  Hal\'s Hope, Vicar, Empire Maker, Pulpit,
> Lils Lad all come to mind.


the losers raced over a different race track; Barbaro, the Derby winner, the same.

did you see a speed bias Fla Derby day this year?

and I think BB going early from the 12 hole to get position is a pretty good excuse for finishing a bit slow. I\'m pretty sure we would have seen a sub :12.5 final 1/8 if the colt had rated just a bit more earlier (which he is probably capable of doing).

a bounce off the huge effort is the question.

when they write the history book on the bounce (or the obituary), BB will have his own chapter.

[TreadHead]

New racing surface or not, Gulfstream is still by far a speed favoring track.  BRIS stats show at:

6F 75% \"speed bias\", meaning races won by early speed horses, including 35% wire-to-wire.  Average beaten lenghts at 1st call 1.6 and 2nd call 1.0

1 mile 66%, 22% wired, ABL 1.9 and 1.1

1 1/8 63%, 20% wired, ABL 2.2 and 1.5.  \"S\" type closers have an impact value of .29, which is tremedously low.

\"And anyway, all that you mention bar Barbaro were on the old surface and configuration. Scat Daddy stalked the pace last year (Stormello, if memory serves) and he did nothing in the Derby.\"

My point exactly.  Very few horses have had an appreciation for both Gulfstream and CD, regardless of which track config we are talking about.  Of those that did, relative to the Derby, the vast majority of them were closer types.  This, coupled with his bounce-able figure, make BB an easy toss for me that I will never second guess, even if he is the next Secretariat (LOL) and wins by 5.

[RICH]

You have it wrong ZFortune didn\'t move foward that much off his last top, the ones you thru out zf/sa look very promising to me.

[big18741]

A 3 point new top into negative territory for Z Fortune could be a bit much.He\'s already gone backwards twice-now only gets three weeks rest.I\'m still on the fence with him,but hoping he draws outside so I can toss him.

At GP there was no speed bias on the 29th

In the Fla Derby the exacta and tri horses came from 6th and 12th.

Bonnie Miss the winner sat 3rd and the exacta horse 5th.

Electrify came from 4th and well off the pace.

Sugar Swirl sat 4th in the 7f shirley Jones.

[ajkreider]

So, using a sample of two races on the current track - we have two winners from two stalking trips - one of which won the Derby, one of which flopped.  Looks like a pattern to me.

It bears remembering that in last year\'s FOY, Scat Daddy came from much farther back off a wide trip. So he did just fine closing at Gulfstream at 1 and 1/8, and it still meant nothing in the Derby.  A much better explanation is that SD wasn\'t nearly the horse Barbaro was.  And looking at the figs, BB is much closer to Barbaro than Scat Daddy.

I will play BB in the derby, singling on top of some much overlooked runners (CCM, D of C if he gets in, Smooth Air, Pyro at a price). I\'ll take 5/2 on top of a couple of 20-1 all day.

[MO]

TOE is most likely winner.