Time to start developing a strategy for this year\'s derby now that I bought the TG special and have seen all the figures.
To me, this year\'s Derby starts with an analysis of the three favorites, Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro. I expect Big Brown to go off in the 2-1 range, Colonel John a solid second choice around 5-1, and Pyro around 8-1, with the rest of the field being double digits, most 20-1 and higher, rather than 10-1ish.
A lot has been said about Big Brown on this board already, so I won\'t rehash it all. He is fast, has not moved backwards, has tactical speed and may even wire the field now that War Pass is out. As for pedigree, I have heard people say he is by a \"sire who was a sprinter and has sired only sprinters\". Well, the TG sire stats show a different story. I find it at least interesting that Boundary\'s offspring run roughly the same figure for races less than 1 mile, than 1 mile and over. (granted 1 mile and over doesn\'t equal 1 1/4 miles, but nonetheless this doesn\'t look like a sprinter\'s sire stats.). For me it comes down to two things with Big Brown. First off, the value. I do think he is the most likely winner, but I put it at 20% or so, and he probably goes off at 2-1 or so. I am not interested in making the bet most likely to \"cash\", but rather in the bet with the best expected ROI. Secondly, the stats about 3 year olds running big negative numbers. I know the sample is limited, but horses with more foundation than Big Brown have bounced badly off those big negative numbers. Big Brown COULD BE the freak and the exception, but it is never a good bet to be looking for the \"exception\" or \"freak\" and getting 2-1 if you are right. There is much too much money to made in the event that Big Brown is nowhere in the superfecta slots, which is a scenario that could be very likely.
Next is Colonel John. Four races at 2, starting from a TG \"10\" working down to \"7\". Then, two races this year, working down to a \"3\". In six races, the horse has yet to move backwards. Obviously a great sign. If the races were on dirt, I would love him. However, they are not. The \"3\" he ran last time was with a bo/bi. That isn\'t good. The fact that the \"3\" makes him a non-contender on number power is not good either. The problem is what does the \"3\" on poly equal on dirt? A \"3\"? If so, then throw him out with abandon. If it means something faster, he has a forward moving pattern and is fast enough to win. A few last points before the verdict. First off, Tiznow\'s offspring are a bit faster on synthetic than on dirt and secondly, they develop about 2 points on average from their 2 year old year to their 3 year old year. Both those stats work against him. Another point here, much less scientific, is that I happen to agree with what FKACH posted a few days ago. It does seem that synthetic tracks flatter the form of closers versus speed horses and I will probably buy into that when I make my bet. Gayego moving up, as a speed horse moving from synthetic to dirt, was more predictable than Colonel John, a closer, moving from synthetic to dirt. And I guess the last point is value. How can I take a comparatively short 5-1ish on a horse running on a surface he has never run on? I can\'t. At least not as my key.
Last of the favorites is Pyro. I am going to chose to \"not be a buyer\" on the \"manufactured pattern\" theory and him being perfectly managed to peak in the Derby. I choose to believe he was an early developer, ran a big number in the BC race which was on as sloppy a surface as I can recall. He has had three chances as a 3 year old to run back to his 2 year old top and hasn\'t done so. I know Miff and Jerry have excuses for why he hasn\'t done that and I certainly respect their opinions, but regardless, that is not a healthy stat and as one of the top three choices, I can\'t back him.
Ok, those profiles of the race favorites lead me to my personal betting strategy/hypothesis. The way to bet this derby is to use multiple longshots in the derby when playing horizontally into the Derby and use those same longshots in the top slot when playing vertically within the Derby.
Who are these live longshots? Here are mine, in order of preference:
Tale of Ekati. I am very surprised that I like this horse, but I didn\'t realize he got as wide a trip as he did in the Wood and I also didn\'t realize Jerry was going to apparently give the Wood a relatively fast figure. (I am not the best at translating TG to Beyers, but perhaps Miff can make a comment, as it looks to me Jerry has the Wood faster). This horse didn\'t develop at 2, but was solid, running a streak of \"5\'s\". I actually think he would have developed because if you consider his race in the Belmont Futurity in September, he hit the gate at the start and had trouble in the stretch, waiting for a hole. Once it opened, he shot through very professionally. Anyway, he runs the same figure 4 straight times as a two year old. He comes back in the Fairgrounds race and runs another \"5\", which is right back to his top. Now, if healthy, you would expect the horse to move forward in the Wood. He did, very sharply in fact, if you believe the TG figure. He moves down to a \"0\"!! The \"0\" makes him a contender for sure. One more thing about the Wood. I, personally have no vision for a horse\'s physical appearances. However, I certainly believe this skill exists and several people commented BEFORE the Wood as to how much better this horse looked physically. What to do about the 5 point forward move? Well, he gets a month off. He also has Barclay Tagg training him, and we know Tagg can get a horse ready for the Derby. The two preps don\'t bother me and the fact that is in the 3rd start of his form cycle can\'t hurt. Sure, he could bounce. But I am very willing to take about 20-1 on a horse that might bounce on the chance he might not. At 2-1, I might assume bounce and look elsewhere. But I think you get all of 20-1 on a horse that is fast enough to win and I believe the long string of pair ups, combined with the horse NEVER having gone backwards, make 20-1 very appealing. Not exactly sure why Prado jumped off this horse so quickly, but that only helps the price, if you ask me. I know his closing pace figure in the Wood was slow. But the pace was hot and this horse went 22 and change into the 2nd quarter of that race. The track was dull as can be that day and the slow final fractions don\'t bother me.
Court Vision - Again, this is based a bit on the fast figure in the Wood. This horse got down to a \"5\" as a two year old then bounced a bit off it in his last race, but he bounced with a great excuse. Trapped and in trouble, he had no chance to run until the final 200 yards, but once clear, he ran down the horse in front of him quite professionally. His \"5\" was at Churchill Downs, which is not lost on this gambler, nor is the fact that he exploded through the stretch to finish full of run in that race. He comes back as a 3 year old and in a race where Mott comments BEFOREHAND that his horse is not fully cranked, he runs his top again, a \"5\", which disappoints a lot of people. So, like Tale of Ekati, you need a forward move in the Wood to get excited and he does make that move, down to a \"2\". Now, the \"2\" only makes him a marginal contender, but I think this horse is more likely than Tales of Ekati to move forward again. He has only developed 3 points from his 2 year old top, and he is bred to like the distance and has proven he likes Churchill. I expect another top and if gets down the \"0\" level and gets a good trip, he has a shot. I will also take Billy Mott in my corner and of course I love the 25-1 I can get on the horse.
Z Fortune - Runs a \"5\" last year (sounds familiar). Comes back this year and right out of the box runs a 3 then a 2. For some reason he bounces in the first Oaklawn race, but then comes immediately back to a new top, \"0\" in the Arkansas Derby. Siphon on top is OK, the dam is a bit of a sprinters pedigree. I like this horse less than Tales of Ekati because he only gets 3 weeks rest instead of 4 going into the derby, but the horse is fast enough to win and will again be in the right price range, roughly 20-1.
Smooth Jazz - I probably like this horse the least of the four, but I still like the horse, especially at the price he is likely go off at. Gets down a \"3\" as a 2 year old, which even today, is a very fast figure. Comes back this year as a 3 year old and pairs up first time out. I would have liked to have seen a move forward in his 2nd race this year, but instead the horse bounces. However, he then comes back and runs a new top in the Florida Derby, getting down to a \"0\". That race, with five weeks off, makes him very competitive here. The reason he is 4th on my list is pedigree. The TG sire stats say that offspring of Smooth Jazz run an average of four points faster in races of less than 1 mile than in races of 1 mile and longer. Now, his Fla derby was at 1 1/8, so he has ALREADY outrun his pedigree. But not sure he wants the 1 1/4. However, when you figure he goes off at 30-1 or higher, you can forgive the pedigree as there is plenty of margin for error in that price.
You have four horses that will all be 20-1 or better and all have a good shot to win. I really feel that keying horses in this range is the way to go, because of the flaws of the three favorites.
