Derby Strategy!!

[Uncle Buck]

I noticed Cowboy Cal myself screaming for a new top. Others who appear to be poised for a new top next Saturday look to be Adriano, Colonel John and Visionaire. I have Smooth Air pairing and BB pairing or backing up 2 points which still should be good enough for the Roses.

[ronwar]

1995-2007 Derby (220 horses)

Tops 18-(8%)
Pairs55-(25%)
Off  48-(22%)
X\'s  99-(45%)

Although possible, tops are hard to come by on derby day for obvious reasons and some have nothing to do with patterns.

[TGJB]

CTC-- what year was that, exactly?

[TreadHead]

I\'ll play devils advocate on this, these splits would break out to be:

11.8
11.2
11.8

and 23.8 for the last 2 we\'ll call 11.8 and 12.0 for the sake of argument (because anything else would be somewhat unusual.

This emphasizes my problem with this horse stretching out.  He runs too fast too early and does not have enough energy late.  None of his races so far have a brohammer energy rating below 52%, meaning he is using too much energy too early.  Only one derby winner the last 35 years (including secretariat - 50.5%) has run a winning derby race with an early energy expension of over 52%, Sunday Silence at 52.08%.  (some of the older year\'s data is missing, to be fair, but all years since 1984 plus some other triple crown winners are noted on Dr Romans site). War Emblem wired the field using only 50.23% energy in the early part of the race.

The fractions of this work don\'t tell me they are trying to teach the horse to rate IMO.  It would seem that he is going to try to wire the field.  I far prefer the work of a horse like Court Vision who has each fraction faster than the last.

Given the figure history for young 3 year olds and the high probability of some sort of \"bounce\" in this race for BB, I am expecting that bounce to manifest itself as a dramatic fade in the home stretch during the last 2 furlongs.  Were this race run at 8-9 furlongs, I think the bounce would be somewhat less pronounced, but at 10 furlongs, I\'m betting it is going to be somewhat severe given the data going in and this horse\'s running style.

[miff]

Thread,

\"None of his races so far have a brohammer energy rating below 52%, meaning he is using too much energy too early\"


....The Brohammer energy rating need fixing. In BB\'s first lifetime start, on a very firm turf course, he walked the first 6 f in 1.11.4 and then proceeded to run the LAST 5/16ths in freak like raw time of 28.2 secs, as a 2yr old no less. Thats why they gave 3 million for 75% of him.

He has never pulled and is not a horse with no mouth.His dead send in the Fla derby was a post position necessity (45.4) of course, he slowed late.Whether he gets the trip next saturday is questionable as it is for all of them.


Mike

[TreadHead]

You are correct Mike, the turf race was not included in the figures I saw and he probably had a much better energy distribution in that race.  His alw win was 52.58%, but I suppose that can probably be excused by how far in front he was and the fact that he geared down.  Again, Im playing devils advocate here.

But regardless, I still think the figure history shows there is a bounce coming, and his dirt tendencies seem to show him wanting near the lead.  If that is the case and a bounce comes, he is likely talented enough to run most of the front end horses out of the race before fading, setting it up for somebody off the pace.  I think if you are looking to play against him, it\'s important to understand the circumstances in which he would likely fail.

Or he could wire the field.  And this is all assuming, as you mentioned, he gets a good trip, \"likes\" the surface, and doesn\'t bounce enough off an extreme top to let an improving horse take it from him.  Enough question marks for me to take a stand against.

[miff]

Thread,

Of course he may react.Several others are in the same boat coming off big tops which look reactionary based on their patterns and spacing.Post positions and the list of the final entrants will determine the early race shape.I\'ve read a projection by a pace guy who predicts an honest but not fast pace. Don\'t know how one can do that exercise without knowing post positions and who is in the race.

Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys who are hawking and gawking at CD.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That would have been Florida Jerry, all tracks (Though not much at Hialeah. They increased their takeout during this era and with short fields the value was abysmal.). It was approximately 1991 to 1993. I think I scored Lil E. Tee with your work and proclaimed Go For Gin my Derby horse after his first Gulfstream Race, but then got cute on race day. (Go for Gin, was later, but I was looking at TFigs on him.)

It was during the time you had your T.V. Show and touted \"Green Darlin\" in the Delaware Handicap, she won for fun. It was the era of the \"Racing Times\". I was the \"kid\" with the Green Form and the pile of \"flash cards\".

I did more than buy the Figs though. I compared, contrasted, studied and post race reviewed them in their application. (Thats a lot easier now with the enhanced TFig information.)



TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC-- what year was that, exactly?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

God, I hate it when you guys use \"abbreviation code\". Who the hell is CD?

Just as I thought, there is no \"CD\".

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys
> who are hawking and gawking at CD.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys
who are hawking and gawking at CD.

Chuck, At CD(CHURCHILL DOWNS) there are informed eyes watching a few of the derby candidates and they are impressed with how these few look and act while working.


Mike

[Sandreadis]

Miff, What are the informed eyes saying about the Colonel\'s first taste of Dirt? I thought his SAD was very professional. He seemed very patient and relaxed down the back side. Great stretch drive and most impressive of all was his gallop out. Of all the horses, I\'m most anxious to see his work and how he handles the dirt. I think he could be a monster at the distance. I like the Poly to dirt angle.

[Uncle Buck]

Interesting article on Tricky in the DRF. \"He comes across as a flake.\"
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94024.html

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The reports I\'ve heard is that CJ is traveling over it like most kids love asparagus.

Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff, What are the informed eyes saying about the
> Colonel\'s first taste of Dirt? I thought his SAD
> was very professional. He seemed very patient and
> relaxed down the back side. Great stretch drive
> and most impressive of all was his gallop out. Of
> all the horses, I\'m most anxious to see his work
> and how he handles the dirt. I think he could be a
> monster at the distance. I like the Poly to dirt
> angle.

[big18741]

Sand

Go watch the head on of the SA Derby.The Colonel was anything but professional in the stretch.Doesn\'t mean he can\'t run well or even win at CD,but you should take a look at it.

[jbelfior]

My guess is you\'ll get at least 20-1 to find out if COWBOY CAL is the next BARBARO.


Good luck,
Joe B.