Derby Strategy!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'d prefer the level heads of John Servis or Carl Nafzger, but acknowledging he\'s eccentric, he has become successful at the highest levels and Dutrow is brimming with confidence

From the Article:

\"Since he has run, he has been taking control of his training,\" Dutrow said. \"When he sees a horse galloping in front of him, he wants that target. It\'s not like he\'s being unmanageable, but his mind is going in the right direction.

For some time, I\'ve been of the impression that if BJB comes undone, it will be due to getting overly aggressive and insisting upon the early lead. Expending energy on the lead always raises the question, \"is enough being saved for the stretch?\". This is especially true of 3YO\'s trying the Derby distance for the first time in their life.

If BJB rates in second or third and makes his move at the top of the stretch, I don\'t have much doubt about the outcome. On the other hand, if he wants his targets too soon and insists upon reeling them in early, the race opens up.

I did not like that last workout at Palm Meadows. I\'d much prefer he\'d gone in 1.00 like he had been going. That said, the Churchill strip has been training hot if a Slow Rat like Court Vision can go :46

Oh, by the way, It\'s Official. Court Vision is the Official \"Wise Guy\" horse for the 2008 Derby.

CtC

Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> Interesting article on Tricky in the DRF. \"He
> comes across as a flake.\"
> http://www.drf.com/news/article/94024.html

[miff]

Sand,

Col John was \"uncomfortable\" not reaching with his normal long stride on Wednesday.Dirt is foreign to this horse and he may need time to get used to it.The transition from running on top of a synth surface to powering thru dirt is not something that all will handle well.He looks physically fantastic as does Pyro, Z Fortune, and DOC.

Col John went much better Thurs and Fri but has not been set down yet,he\'s set to work today or tomorrow but there is concern all around about possible bad weather.

Adriano is dappled out/chisiled and Recapturetheglory, two minute licked, was full of himself.

I follow works carefully every derby and it is rare that a horse trains up poorly and then runs well.Next week on HRTV that will be showing and critiquing all the derby runners working.From my experience, Mike Welch, who is there, has an excellent opinion of watching horses travel and publishes his comments every day in DRF.


Mike

[miff]

Horse snake all the time on poly/synth(cause they are not digging in for traction) and would not consider that in the same light as the normal bi/bo on dirt tracks.


mike

[Sandreadis]

Big 18741, I watched the head on of the SA Derby. Most of the field was doing the \"Poly Weave\" including the 2nd place horse. Isn\'t this just a very common synthetic surface phenomenon? If this was on conventional dirt, I would be a lot more concerned. Anybody else worried about the CJ weave?

[alm]

If we accept the notion of the Equix biomechanic guys that horses with long hind tibias are less stable in the slop...and probably on the grass...we might be able to extrapolate that they will also be less stable on synth tracks.

Maybe.

Weaving on a synth track might be an indicator of that.  You might be able to deduce that the weavers, lacking traction, will get hold of dirt better.  More stable synth runners might not make the same transition...and will actually be slower, relatively speaking...just as grass horses are on dirt.

In other words, there will be move-ups and move-downs between the surfaces...you won\'t know what\'s coming until an individual horse actually makes the transition as there is no practical way to analyze the issue...IF there is a physical issue underlying this in the first place.

At the end of the day, you are right about working well before the big race...the winners almost always look like winners in their workouts.

[spa]

John was weaving every time Cory\'s stick cracked his ass. I thought I saw the poly breaks from under his feet, as he shot out nearing the 16th pole.

[TGJB]

CTC-- Don\'t know about flash cards or green forms. I\'m trying to completely revamp my mental picturse of you as a \"kid\", since you come across as a cranky old man.

I\'m talking to TVG about doing a Post Time-esque spot for them weekly, so I went back to the old tapes to show them what I wanted to do. Shocked the s--t out of me to see how young I looked-- hair on my head and everything. This is a stressful business.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- Don\'t know about flash cards or green forms.
> I\'m trying to completely revamp my mental picturse
> of you as a \"kid\", since you come across as a
> cranky old man.

The Racing Times Cover was printed in Green Ink, every day of the week. Not just for Saturday.

The \"Flash Cards\" were the TSheets. Approximately 6\"by 8\".

I am a Cranky Old Man. I looked young for my age 15 years ago too.

 
> I\'m talking to TVG about doing a Post Time-esque
> spot for them weekly, so I went back to the old
> tapes to show them what I wanted to do. Shocked
> the s--t out of me to see how young I looked--
> hair on my head and everything. This is a
> stressful business.

You were very good on that show. I really thought you conveyed well distilled information with straight forward opinion. It was precision commentary.

Don\'t worry about the stress. Your Distorted Humor season is appreciating.

[TGJB]

One source of the stress is that I did NOT get a DH breeding right.

[Uncle Buck]

I hope the TVG gig comes to fruition. Bob Bedeker, Simon Bray and Vic Staufer can handicap a little (Staufer is a a TG guy) but other than that those dudes are clue-less. Watchmaker on that crazy Friday afternoon show - I can\'t look at him without thinking he hot-knifed too much hash back in the day. It would be a breath of fresh air to have a real handicapper on TVG.

Where I live they don\'t offer HRTV so we\'re stuck with TVG only. Please sign the deal and come on the Network

[richiebee]

Unc:

The \"hot knife\" line brought back some old times, but MW looks more like
a \"hash under glass\" type.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

And I thought youthful fondness for Heineken with that Red Star on the label was a statement of defiance.



richiebee Wrote:
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> Unc:
>
> The \"hot knife\" line brought back some old times,
> but MW looks more like
> a \"hash under glass\" type.

[Lost Cause]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
> Watchmaker on that crazy
> Friday afternoon show - I can\'t look at him
> without thinking he hot-knifed too much hash back
> in the day. It would be a breath of fresh air to
> have a real handicapper on TVG.

At least you can turn off the TV.. He had the booth directly in front of me at the tournament...I had to watch that all day long for two days...He has that lost look all the time...