Question on Eight Belles bi during her work today

[covelj70]

She bore in very obviously in her work today.

Does anyone else have a problem with the fact that she bore in in her last race and then she also bore in during her work?

Even though she fits on the sheets and her pattern is good the \"bi\" in her race and workout and the fact that she hasn\'t had a break tells me she\'s pretty likely to bounce in the Derby.  

Thoughts?

[richiebee]

Covelj:

But if she draws a bad post in the Derby, the question will be is she beatable at a very short price (9/5-2/1) in the Oaks?

[covelj70]

Seems to me like she\'s going to bounce in whichever race they run her in.

As you might remember from a previous post, I have a pretty big futures bet on her at 8-1 for the Oaks which I will be tearing up after the post draw for the derby but based on what I saw this AM from her work, I don\'t think it would have been worth anything anyway.

I think people get too wrapped up with work times and not enough with how the horses do it, for me, I wasn\'t anywhere near as enamored as all of the experts seem to be about her work this morning.  Her stride wasn\'t as fluid as Proud Spell\'s and the bi sealed the deal for me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Eight Belles certainly didn\'t bear in during her workout Sunday. She got a little erratic at the head of the lane, but she did change leads.

It didn\'t look as good as Colonel John\'s. He was all business, but theres also the chance he did a little too much.  

 covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Seems to me like she\'s going to bounce in
> whichever race they run her in.
>
> As you might remember from a previous post, I have
> a pretty big futures bet on her at 8-1 for the
> Oaks which I will be tearing up after the post
> draw for the derby but based on what I saw this AM
> from her work, I don\'t think it would have been
> worth anything anyway.
>
> I think people get too wrapped up with work times
> and not enough with how the horses do it, for me,
> I wasn\'t anywhere near as enamored as all of the
> experts seem to be about her work this morning.
> Her stride wasn\'t as fluid as Proud Spell\'s and
> the bi sealed the deal for me.

[covelj70]

CTC, I\'m not talking about the top of the stretch when she was looking around, I am talking about further down the lane.  She clearly ducked in.  G. Stevens even commented on it on Target Louisville.  She definitely didn\'t run down the lane in a straight line.

Anyone else see the work think she bi?

[rosewood]

Your correct. She did veer in and start looking around a little, then the boy shook his stick at her.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eight Belles certainly didn\'t bear in during her
> workout Sunday. She got a little erratic at the
> head of the lane, but she did change leads.

I\'ve already tossed the filly from the bowtie barn out of Derby contention;
now if she draws a bad post and runs Friday, I will toss her out of the Oaks
at a short price.

Her FG race may have been the most impressive of her winter campaign. At Oaklawn
there is a noticeable progression in her 3 races--she won each race at shorter
odds against smaller fields and by decreasing margins, so by the time she
prevailed in the Fantasy she was beating a four horse field at odds of 1/2 by
less than one length.

Interesting to read that owner Rick \"Bowtie\" Porter is no longer employing
Michael Matz. I guess like John Servis, who also trained a Derby winner for
another owner while training for Porter, Matz was made to walk the plank.
 
> It didn\'t look as good as Colonel John\'s. He was
> all business, but theres also the chance he did a
> little too much.

Ah Chuckpasser you are waffling. You were kvelling over this work this morning.

The truth is nothing surprising happened during training hours at CD this AM.

California horses and California trainers are known for fast works, which is
why I always laugh about soundness problems being surface related and then
watching the Cal trainers send their runners out for blistering workouts.
Colonel John had two five furlong works over the SA composite pro ride surface
which were comparable to his CD blowout

Does one workout indicate that CJ \"loves the dirt\"?

CJ very logical off his running style, his breeding for the distance, and
the manner in which Cal Poly form has translated when shipping East.

Adriano\'s work is about what would be expected from a runner who has never
raced at a distance shorter than 8.5 furlongs

As to Z NYSBSR, the two knocks which have been mentioned here (a) he\'s only 3
weeks removed from a race where (b) he established a substantial new top (see
also Gayego) are worthy of concern. I would add (c) his breeding on the dam side
is sprint oriented; Fortunate Prospect was a Leroy Jolley trainee who was most
effective at 6 furlongs.

I enjoyed your back and forth on \"foundation\" earlier today, although I think
the word may have been used in a manner different than what I am accustomed to.
The word \"foundation\" used to be thrown about referring to the amount of lung
expanding exercise a runner needed either prepping for its first career race or
returning from an expanded absence. I do not remember all of the parables
exactly, but do remember they were basically etched in stone-- a certain amount
of days jogging and galloping before the first short/ slow works, then the
progression of works leading up to the first race or return race.

When I hear the word \"foundation\" in a conversation regarding racing, I think
of this progression of lung capacity expanding workouts and races. And having
said all of that, I do not think the Big Brownie has sufficient foundation to
warrant an investment at short odds.

BB will be compared to FuPeg, who also came into the Derby with light
preparation; but FuPeg won a 2 turn Graded stake at SA in March (San Felipe)
and a 2 turn graded stake in April (Aq Wood Memorial). BB\'s preparation thus
far is considerably lighter-- a romp in the Florida Derby in which BB was not
threatened after the field was at the 1/2 mile pole and a one turn off the turf
flat mile in which he faced 4 other runners.

Using: Adriano, Colonel John

Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Gayego, Cool Coal Man.

Man that leaves lots of work to do, not to mention handicapping the Oaks
(nobody is mentioning Country Star, who had an interesting Kee experience in
April) and the Derby undercard.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Shes just a big gangly girl is all.

If you think you have a legit bi on a break off work, then toss her on that basis.

I\'d be more prone to toss her on green behavior, how that green behavior may manifest itself in front of a big crowd and concern she may not relish the last eighth.

I like this trainer though, and I don\'t think he\'d send her if he didn\'t think she couldn\'t get the trip. I liked Proud Spell too on handicapping. I have to figure Jones knows more than I do.

I was very high on Smooth Air, but that fever came at the worst time. A couple missed days, some antibodies at work killing a virus or something. It wouldn\'t take much to steal a horse\'s \"Sunday Punch\" at this level. It helped rob Afleet Alex of his rightful Derby. We\'ll see how he trains in from here.

It is handicapping out to be a great race.



rosewood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your correct. She did veer in and start looking
> around a little, then the boy shook his stick at
> her.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richie

I\'m not waffling. I continue to investigate.

CJ looked good, but that was very fast and I\'m pretty sure Harty would have prefered a :59 and 1:12

CJ is a probable perfecta horse for me, but I won\'t let his absence beat me. I have my winner.

Be careful tossing Eight Belles. I don\'t think you saw her at her very best last and the one prior she was geared down well before the wire. Check the clip out. Granting that in the Derby, her jock can\'t ride her like she is clearly best. He will have to save some ground.

How can I talk you off Adriano?



Richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Eight Belles certainly didn\'t bear in during
> her
> > workout Sunday. She got a little erratic at the
> > head of the lane, but she did change leads.
>
> I\'ve already tossed the filly from the bowtie barn
> out of Derby contention;
> now if she draws a bad post and runs Friday, I
> will toss her out of the Oaks
> at a short price.
>
> Her FG race may have been the most impressive of
> her winter campaign. At Oaklawn
> there is a noticeable progression in her 3
> races--she won each race at shorter
> odds against smaller fields and by decreasing
> margins, so by the time she
> prevailed in the Fantasy she was beating a four
> horse field at odds of 1/2 by
> less than one length.
>
> Interesting to read that owner Rick \"Bowtie\"
> Porter is no longer employing
> Michael Matz. I guess like John Servis, who also
> trained a Derby winner for
> another owner while training for Porter, Matz was
> made to walk the plank.
>  
> > It didn\'t look as good as Colonel John\'s. He
> was
> > all business, but theres also the chance he did
> a
> > little too much.
>
> Ah Chuckpasser you are waffling. You were kvelling
> over this work this morning.
>
> The truth is nothing surprising happened during
> training hours at CD this AM.
>
> California horses and California trainers are
> known for fast works, which is
> why I always laugh about soundness problems being
> surface related and then
> watching the Cal trainers send their runners out
> for blistering workouts.
> Colonel John had two five furlong works over the
> SA composite pro ride surface
> which were comparable to his CD blowout
>
> Does one workout indicate that CJ \"loves the
> dirt\"?
>
> CJ very logical off his running style, his
> breeding for the distance, and
> the manner in which Cal Poly form has translated
> when shipping East.
>
> Adriano\'s work is about what would be expected
> from a runner who has never
> raced at a distance shorter than 8.5 furlongs
>
> As to Z NYSBSR, the two knocks which have been
> mentioned here (a) he\'s only 3
> weeks removed from a race where (b) he established
> a substantial new top (see
> also Gayego) are worthy of concern. I would add
> (c) his breeding on the dam side
> is sprint oriented; Fortunate Prospect was a Leroy
> Jolley trainee who was most
> effective at 6 furlongs.
>
> I enjoyed your back and forth on \"foundation\"
> earlier today, although I think
> the word may have been used in a manner different
> than what I am accustomed to.
> The word \"foundation\" used to be thrown about
> referring to the amount of lung
> expanding exercise a runner needed either prepping
> for its first career race or
> returning from an expanded absence. I do not
> remember all of the parables
> exactly, but do remember they were basically
> etched in stone-- a certain amount
> of days jogging and galloping before the first
> short/ slow works, then the
> progression of works leading up to the first race
> or return race.
>
> When I hear the word \"foundation\" in a
> conversation regarding racing, I think
> of this progression of lung capacity expanding
> workouts and races. And having
> said all of that, I do not think the Big Brownie
> has sufficient foundation to
> warrant an investment at short odds.
>
> BB will be compared to FuPeg, who also came into
> the Derby with light
> preparation; but FuPeg won a 2 turn Graded stake
> at SA in March (San Felipe)
> and a 2 turn graded stake in April (Aq Wood
> Memorial). BB\'s preparation thus
> far is considerably lighter-- a romp in the
> Florida Derby in which BB was not
> threatened after the field was at the 1/2 mile
> pole and a one turn off the turf
> flat mile in which he faced 4 other runners.
>
> Using: Adriano, Colonel John
>
> Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles,
> Gayego, Cool Coal Man.
>
> Man that leaves lots of work to do, not to mention
> handicapping the Oaks
> (nobody is mentioning Country Star, who had an
> interesting Kee experience in
> April) and the Derby undercard.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> I like this trainer though, and I don\'t think he\'d
> send her if he didn\'t think she couldn\'t get the
> trip. I liked Proud Spell too on handicapping. I
> have to figure Jones knows more than I do.

 
Chuck:

If I thought the Derby run was the trainer\'s idea, I might have a totally
different opinion here.

If it were up to trainer Jones, I think this filly would be in the gate Friday
afternoon and would not even be entered Saturday.

I hope both of the Jones girls go in the Oaks and I can get odds of near 5/1
on Frankel\'s Country Star, who looked to have become unglued in the Ashland;
having never run on dirt, she is the Oaks version of Colonel John to an extent.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I wish you good luck in the Oaks.

I think theres some good fillies this year: Pure Clan, Proud Spell, Country Star, Little Belle and the Big Unbridled. Even that filly EB ran down in the Fantasy. Quite a filly crop.

Oh, even Bsharpsonata

I\'m looking forward to the Post Position Draw.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  
> > I like this trainer though, and I don\'t think
> he\'d
> > send her if he didn\'t think she couldn\'t get
> the
> > trip. I liked Proud Spell too on handicapping.
> I
> > have to figure Jones knows more than I do.
>
>  
> Chuck:
>
> If I thought the Derby run was the trainer\'s idea,
> I might have a totally
> different opinion here.
>
> If it were up to trainer Jones, I think this filly
> would be in the gate Friday
> afternoon and would not even be entered Saturday.
>
> I hope both of the Jones girls go in the Oaks and
> I can get odds of near 5/1
> on Frankel\'s Country Star, who looked to have
> become unglued in the Ashland;
> having never run on dirt, she is the Oaks version
> of Colonel John to an extent.

[ronwar]

That may be why the jock took out the stick near the wire. I was trying to figure out why he/she would show her the stick in this work.

[big18741]

Eight Belles stretch antics go back to her two year old campaign and show up in just about every race in her career.She gets the BI in her last,but she\'s been just as goofy in the lane in plenty of other races without it being noted on her sheet.

Jones had to send the pony after her yesterday to get her pulled up-she was wanting more.Her 4f work Keeneland work 4/20 was sharp-clockers there had her doing it easily-and the 5f\'s yesterday was significantly(8 ticks) faster than anything on her tab going back to last year.