More Derby Ins and Outs

[richiebee]

To review so far:

Using: Adriano, Colonel John.

Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Gayego, Cool Coal Man

Note: These are top spot uses and tosses only. I will only bet win, P3, P4
and Oaks/Derby double.

Next subjects: The Tagg Team

Big Truck--on the Downey Profile list of graded earnings, currently listed at
#20 with Salute the Sarge (doubtful Derby starter)and BehindattheBar (possible
Derby starter) on the list in front of him, so it looks to be certain that BT
will have enough gelt to get into the Derby gate. That being said, this one (a)
appears to be too slow off of his TGs to contend, (b) has only had an impact
when facing inferior competition at Tampa and v NYB SRs and (c) is sired by a
young stallion who was strictly a sprinter. A toss.

Tale of Ekati-- One of a few who jumped forward radically in his final prep.
In days of the not so distant past, before the whole notion of Derby pattern
fabrication (also known as tanking in the final prep) became fashionable, a
winner of the Wood Memorial would almost automatically be one of the wagering
favorites for the Derby. I guess the thinking is that TOE could go off at odds
between 12/1-20/1, a huge price for a Wood winner.

Trainer Barclay Tagg was on a mega roll late last Summer into Fall, but as usual
there seem to be barn wide reactions to these hot streaks-- Tagg\'s last 90 day
win percentage on a 102 start sample is a mere 11% (and to air a pet peeve of
mine, I must note that Tagg\'s \"TG Figure Based\" stat for the same 90 days is 53
starts with 30% of these runners \"topping\" and 36% \"pairing\") (??*&!?).

It has been fun to watch and listen to Jimbo try to sweat the TG braintrust
on the ground loss calculation in the Wood; strangely, you get the idea Jimbo
would like to convince himself that TOE ran a \"1\" or \"1+\" rather than the zero
which TG gave-- kind of like pattern fabrication by a handicapper, looking to
decrease the \"Spaldeen\" factor.

I am not really impressed by this one. Someone had to go by the ouchy and hard
pressed War Pass in the Wood, and the departed Prado gave this one a good trip
in terms of pace positioning. I like to think that if the Wood was run at the
Derby distance of 10 furlongs, Court Vision would have gone by TOE in the final
1/8th mile.

Despite my knocks on TOE, and the possibility of a bounce, I feel compelled to
use him. Again, I doubt you will find any Wood winner of the past who has gone
off at the kind of odds that will be offered on TOE in the Derby.

Update: (Alphabetical Now)

Use: Adriano, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati.

Toss: Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles, Gayego, Z Fortune.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Diamond James Richie,

You can Never be 100% certain in this game, but I must warn you. I do not believe that Adriano is \"getting over\" Terra Firma. All of his Churchill works are mediocre at best and yesterday on a very glib strip, he could not get by his work mate. On that strip, you can\'t even project that his workmate was tough due to a good work. (They went in 1:00:4) I also Do Not like the way Motion is sounding. He was reluctant to come and is not sounding very optimistic. He\'s gonna be outta sight a quarter mile in on a pace that is not overbearing. Oh, did I mention the horse is slow?

It may be he\'s just not handling Churchill Downs, but thats \"good enough for government work.\"

Yo-Adrian-o....where are you?

p.s. Don\'t toss my filly Richie. Don\'t you dare toss my filly!

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To review so far:
>
> Using: Adriano, Colonel John.
>
> Tossing: Big Brown, Z Fortune, Eight Belles,
> Gayego, Cool Coal Man
>
> Note: These are top spot uses and tosses only. I
> will only bet win, P3, P4
> and Oaks/Derby double.
>
> Next subjects: The Tagg Team
>
> Big Truck--on the Downey Profile list of graded
> earnings, currently listed at
> #20 with Salute the Sarge (doubtful Derby
> starter)and BehindattheBar (possible
> Derby starter) on the list in front of him, so it
> looks to be certain that BT
> will have enough gelt to get into the Derby gate.
> That being said, this one (a)
> appears to be too slow off of his TGs to contend,
> (b) has only had an impact
> when facing inferior competition at Tampa and v
> NYB SRs and (c) is sired by a
> young stallion who was strictly a sprinter. A
> toss.
>
> Tale of Ekati-- One of a few who jumped forward
> radically in his final prep.
> In days of the not so distant past, before the
> whole notion of Derby pattern
> fabrication (also known as tanking in the final
> prep) became fashionable, a
> winner of the Wood Memorial would almost
> automatically be one of the wagering
> favorites for the Derby. I guess the thinking is
> that TOE could go off at odds
> between 12/1-20/1, a huge price for a Wood
> winner.
>
> Trainer Barclay Tagg was on a mega roll late last
> Summer into Fall, but as usual
> there seem to be barn wide reactions to these hot
> streaks-- Tagg\'s last 90 day
> win percentage on a 102 start sample is a mere 11%
> (and to air a pet peeve of
> mine, I must note that Tagg\'s \"TG Figure Based\"
> stat for the same 90 days is 53
> starts with 30% of these runners \"topping\" and 36%
> \"pairing\") (??*&!?).
>
> It has been fun to watch and listen to Jimbo try
> to sweat the TG braintrust
> on the ground loss calculation in the Wood;
> strangely, you get the idea Jimbo
> would like to convince himself that TOE ran a \"1\"
> or \"1+\" rather than the zero
> which TG gave-- kind of like pattern fabrication
> by a handicapper, looking to
> decrease the \"Spaldeen\" factor.
>
> I am not really impressed by this one. Someone had
> to go by the ouchy and hard
> pressed War Pass in the Wood, and the departed
> Prado gave this one a good trip
> in terms of pace positioning. I like to think that
> if the Wood was run at the
> Derby distance of 10 furlongs, Court Vision would
> have gone by TOE in the final
> 1/8th mile.
>
> Despite my knocks on TOE, and the possibility of a
> bounce, I feel compelled to
> use him. Again, I doubt you will find any Wood
> winner of the past who has gone
> off at the kind of odds that will be offered on
> TOE in the Derby.
>
> Update: (Alphabetical Now)
>
> Use: Adriano, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati.
>
> Toss: Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight
> Belles, Gayego, Z Fortune.

[richiebee]

Chuckteaugay:

Looking at this colt\'s PPs/running style what in the world makes you think he
would be sharp in the morning?

Now take out your Derby/ Oaks TG advance sheets (stop laughing Jerry). Draw a
line through his FOY where he broke from Death Valley, post 12, and was
troubled on the first turn. Having drawn such a line through the FOY, you see
nice development in terms of his TG\'s and a number in the synthetic Lane\'s End
which makes him a contender in this race at expected odds of 20/1 or so.

I am not at all swayed by the fact that YO Adriano\'s sire AP Chucky has recently
been upgraded to \"chef de race\" status.

If I read the TGs and the breeding correctly, this one goes by your filly and
your NYSBSR in the lane like a freight train goes by a hobo.

Riva Richiebee

[toppled]

Here are my negatives on Adriano & why I will let him beat me if he wins:
You\'ve got the breeding, but I can\'t tell from the PPs what he\'ll do on Saturday.  I agree on drawing the line through the FOY, but now I\'m left with no dirt races.  He still has to improve another 2-3 points to win this off a new top.  
So I have a horse with no useable dirt numbers who is coming out of a race I can only label as negative key.  The only horse to do anything out of that race is Derby Trial winner Macho Again-who may have hated the surface in the Lane\'s End and finished 7th after a prior win on dirt.  The rest of the field in finish order & their next race:  2-7th BG, 3-8th BG, 4-4 Lex, 5-3rd Alw, 6-couldn\'t find a next race, 7-1st DT, 8-8th DT, 9-4 & 6 in MSWs, last 2 couldn\'t find another race. The last race this bad was the ultimate negative key race-the Delta Downs Jackpot (DH Z Humor/Turf War) that produced a continuous string of losers early this year

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Toppled,

Granting that Adriano broke from \"Death Valley\" in the Fountain of Youth, he did not encounter the type of trouble to get beaten as badly as he did if he was a horse with some dirt talent. (By the way, Big Brown broke from that post too and ran the best race of the year.) Adriano\'s Hallandale race did not inure to his benefit.

Adriano looked good coming down Turfway\'s rubber stretch. It just appears both that the bunch didn\'t relish running on old tires and that they were not top flight horses.

Adriano has worked pretty well on the dirt at Palm Meadows. He\'s not working well at Churchill and in my opinion and I\'m not gonna factor his Lane\'s End as a race in a graph indicating where he is going.

I also don\'t like his tail female pedigree nor the vibes I\'m getting from the connections. He reminds me very much of \"Broken Vow\" without the dirt ability.

The easiest of tosses with money saved for the viable combinations.

By the way Toppled, I agree completely with your analysis of Z Fortune\'s past workouts and the fact they are being easy with him with the Ark spacing. I\'m not as optimistic about him winning, but I think he\'ll run a very good race at very nice odds.

Ltoppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here are my negatives on Adriano & why I will let
> him beat me if he wins:
> You\'ve got the breeding, but I can\'t tell from the
> PPs what he\'ll do on Saturday.  I agree on drawing
> the line through the FOY, but now I\'m left with no
> dirt races.  He still has to improve another 2-3
> points to win this off a new top.  
> So I have a horse with no useable dirt numbers who
> is coming out of a race I can only label as
> negative key.  The only horse to do anything out
> of that race is Derby Trial winner Macho Again-who
> may have hated the surface in the Lane\'s End and
> finished 7th after a prior win on dirt.  The rest
> of the field in finish order & their next race:
> 2-7th BG, 3-8th BG, 4-4 Lex, 5-3rd Alw, 6-couldn\'t
> find a next race, 7-1st DT, 8-8th DT, 9-4 & 6 in
> MSWs, last 2 couldn\'t find another race. The last
> race this bad was the ultimate negative key
> race-the Delta Downs Jackpot (DH Z Humor/Turf War)
> that produced a continuous string of losers early
> this year

[richiebee]

Time is short, the hour is late, I will try to keep it brief:

Denis of Cork: Apparently training and looking good. To me this one is
nearly as lightly raced as BB, but not nearly as talented. Toss.

Court Vision: I am on record as saying that CV would have gone by TOE if the
Wood were 10 furlongs. And now to get really scientific, the last Triple Crown
horse Mott made any noise with was also a \"Vision\" horse-- Vision and Verse,
second to Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. Using.

Visionaire: I like the fact that Barry Irwin jumps in and participates on the
board occasionally and I think this is a man who can be instrumental in bringing
about necessary change in racing. Oh sure BI slammed the Clown and Silver Charm
last week, but it turns out he was merely pointing out that they were involved
in a mutual exercise which we have come to find out enhances prostate health.
As to Visionaire, too many question marks for me: Lezcano, Grand Slam, what to
make of his sloppy Gotham effort, his best race to date. I toss him from the
top spot.

Smooth Air: Has done very little wrong and is being brought into the race the
right way. The 2 days of missed training should not be a factor conditioning
wise. Moved way forward in his last, but has had time to recover. I don\'t know
from the pedigree. I know some posters mentioned that Lil E Tee started at
Calder--what about Spend a Buck? The media is unfairly trying to make Bennie
Stutts,who is only 70, to be this year\'s Mrs Genter. Using.

To review: (Odds from NY Post)

USING: Adriano(20), Colonel John(9/2), Court Vision(15), Smooth Air(30), Tale
of Ekati(15)

TOSSING: Big Brown(7/2), Big Truck(50), Cool Coal Man(25), Denis of Cork(?),
Eight Belles(15), Gayego(12),Visionaire(20), Z Fortune(20).

[toppled]

Last night around 11pm I decided to get away from the speed #s and look at the charts of the derby preps.  I found a horse I had totally dismissed is now on my list of must uses.  This horse has defeated 7 other Derby horses, 6 in 1 race and another in a prior race.  Of those 7 horses, 3 won subsequent Derby preps,and another 3 ran 3rd in Derby preps.  Only one of these defeated horses didn\'t hit the board. As a result, I have labeled this race, which has produced six 2008 Derby starters as the best key race of all the Derby preps. When I tried to find other horses, who in a winning effort defeated other Derby entrants, the pickings were slim.  I couldn\'t find another horse who had beaten more than 2 other Derby entrants while winning a race (If I\'m wrong, let me know-it was late last night when I did this).  What if it rains?  This horse\'s biggest margin of victory was on a wet fast track,  Can he handle Churchill Downs?  Well his best sheet number as a 2yo, which he paired as a 3 in this big key race, was run at CD, where he had defeated the other horse (who was not in this key race) I mentioned in the 7 who are here. After the key race, the horse then ran a bad race over polytrack and is now being dismissed. Shades of Thunder Gulch as he\'s trained by a 2 time Kentucky Derby winning trainer.  
Last night Cool Coal Man leaped over about 15 horses on my Derby selections.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richgret,

I\'ve done my best to talk you off Yo-Adrian-o and can do no more. I would have thought that last workout would have shook you up considering the horse\'s dirt form can\'t be measured. The fact is that in this day and age Horses that win the Kentucky Derby generally work out very well at Churchill. There are exceptions. (Funny Cide for instance-Who blew out nicely at Belmont, Giacomo-Who worked out in good time at Hollywood.) But, I can\'t remember the last mediocre Churchill worker to win the Derby. Adriano may not be a morning workhorse, but I\'m fairly certain they would have prefered he run down that workmate last in decent time. If he pulls it off you\'ll get good odds and bragging rights. (I\'m not sure the odds will nearly be appropriate though.)

Same is true for Visionaire. They let the grey maiden filly get a running start on him, but he couldn\'t close it up nearly in time in a relatively slow 4 furlong fraction. Theres a whole lot of obstacles with this one, but I could see him in the lower part of the exotics. For me, the measure of his progress will be how he fairs head to head with Pyro who handled him in the Risen Star. I also see a nice head to head with Court Vision:

\"Ladies and Gentlemen.....in the substance corner, running for Gas, the Two Year Old Champion.....PY ROOOOOOOOOOO....in the olympic hero\'s corner, running for Barry Irwin and Team Valor, renewed industry respect and future business, the challenger Vish...un...nareeeeeee. LETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMBLLLLEEEEEEEE\"

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Court Vision: I am on record as saying that CV
> would have gone by TOE if the
> Wood were 10 furlongs. And now to get really
> scientific, the last Triple Crown
> horse Mott made any noise with was also a \"Vision\"
> horse-- Vision and Verse,
> second to Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. Using.
>
> Visionaire: I like the fact that Barry Irwin jumps
> in and participates on the
> board occasionally and I think this is a man who
> can be instrumental in bringing
> about necessary change in racing. Oh sure BI
> slammed the Clown and Silver Charm
> last week, but it turns out he was merely pointing
> out that they were involved
> in a mutual exercise which we have come to find
> out enhances prostate health.
> As to Visionaire, too many question marks for me:
> Lezcano, Grand Slam, what to
> make of his sloppy Gotham effort, his best race to
> date. I toss him from the
> top spot.
>
> Smooth Air: Has done very little wrong and is
> being brought into the race the
> right way. The 2 days of missed training should
> not be a factor conditioning
> wise. Moved way forward in his last, but has had
> time to recover. I don\'t know
> from the pedigree. I know some posters mentioned
> that Lil E Tee started at
> Calder--what about Spend a Buck? The media is
> unfairly trying to make Bennie
> Stutts,who is only 70, to be this year\'s Mrs
> Genter. Using.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Nice work toppled. I didn\'t know that and will re-review....thank you.

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Last night around 11pm I decided to get away from
> the speed #s and look at the charts of the derby
> preps.  I found a horse I had totally dismissed is
> now on my list of must uses.  This horse has
> defeated 7 other Derby horses, 6 in 1 race and
> another in a prior race.  Of those 7 horses, 3 won
> subsequent Derby preps,and another 3 ran 3rd in
> Derby preps.  Only one of these defeated horses
> didn\'t hit the board. As a result, I have labeled
> this race, which has produced six 2008 Derby
> starters as the best key race of all the Derby
> preps. When I tried to find other horses, who in a
> winning effort defeated other Derby entrants, the
> pickings were slim.  I couldn\'t find another horse
> who had beaten more than 2 other Derby entrants
> while winning a race (If I\'m wrong, let me know-it
> was late last night when I did this).  What if it
> rains?  This horse\'s biggest margin of victory was
> on a wet fast track,  Can he handle Churchill
> Downs?  Well his best sheet number as a 2yo, which
> he paired as a 3 in this big key race, was run at
> CD, where he had defeated the other horse (who was
> not in this key race) I mentioned in the 7 who are
> here. After the key race, the horse then ran a bad
> race over polytrack and is now being dismissed.
> Shades of Thunder Gulch as he\'s trained by a 2
> time Kentucky Derby winning trainer.  
> Last night Cool Coal Man leaped over about 15
> horses on my Derby selections.

[MonmouthGuy]

If he wasn\'t the slowest horse in the race, you make a compelling argument.  

An argument that would have had you tearing up Scat Daddy tickets last year.

I may not be able to pick the winner, but I have been pretty adept in picking horses that are most likely to finish last over the years:  High Limit and Cowtown Cat come to mind.  I think Cool Coal Man is a strong contender to finish last, and I hold a Pool 2 futures ticket on him.  He will press the pace and stop cold on the far turn.  

There are certain important facts that you conveniently dismiss about CCM, not the least of which is that in his 2YO stakes appearance at CD, he pressed the pace, stopped cold, and finished last. Perhaps you overlooked that chart.  Almost impossible for me to see him running a new top.  Even if he pairs his top he finishes 10th.

Save your $2.

[richiebee]

Good work, Toppled.

Lets talk TG#s and patterns.

Pattern 1: (beginning with 2YO debut) 11/10/7/3/10/6/3/10

Pattern 2: (beginning with 2YO debut) 6/6/5/7/8/2.

\"1\" is CCM.

\"2\" is a colt also trained by a former Derby winning trainer. \"2\" also won at CD as a 2YO.

[big18741]

Shoe change and blinkers helped \"2\" horse.

\"2\" horse is training better at CD to date.

Top jock ends up on \"2\" horse not Cool Coal Man.

[jbelfior]

Now you\'re talking, Richie B.

If they go fast enough, Colt #2 may go by them all. Besides, sire nearly won the race and dam won a Gr2 over the track.

BTW: Do the blinkers come off?



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MonmouthGuy]

One can make many of the same arguments for \"2\" that many are currently making for CV.

[big18741]

And \"2\" might be 4 or 5X the odds.

Still needs an inside post for me to consider him at the bottom of tickets.

I see pair up which might get him a piece with a really nice ground saving trip.