More Derby Ins and Outs

[jbelfior]

Agreed. Who beats who in the Wood if you switch post positions and trainer intent?

CV will be about 12-1; #2 may be 60-1.


As for CCM; Zito keeps saying he\'s not a robust colt and his races take a lot out of him. He probably bounced big time in the KY Juvenile after the strong allowance win (a \"3\"). That\'s probably why he treaded lightly in the Blue Grass with him and CCM will certainly run better than a \"10\". But is that how you want to bring them into the Derby....off one strong race in February?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

You\'re right about the FOY.  Seen some strange commentating on it\'s being a negative key race.  Downey, for instance, tossed CCM (correctly) from the Bluegrass because \"the competition in South Florida has been weak\" - and then he gives the nod to Monba in the BG?!  Privman in the DerbyWatch acutally says the FOY is a negative key race, in spite of what you mention - AND remembering that CCM also beat Halo Najib and Kentucky Bear, who have also hit the board in preps.  So, 8 of the 11 horses CCM beat in the FOY hit the board in preps (9, if you include Elysium Fields in the FOY itself).  Maybe they\'re all bad, but you won\'t such that kind of depth in February prep races often.


That said, I\'ve changed my mind on CCM in the past week.  Had been in your position, thinking he was much overlooked.  

But I\'ve decided to toss him (though I certainly don\'t see him finishing last).  In the FOY, he looked no cinch to make another 1/8 and came home very slowly. Got a great trip too (and also in his allowance win). The two runners he beat there that went on to win, won Poly races -  so that doesn\'t say much.  As Monmouth said, not fast enough.  Even if he runs to a new top, it likely won\'t be enough to factor.  That plus Kent D\'s odd comments on CCM this past week means I can\'t play him.

Which means Court Vision has no shot at all - cuz he had no shot at beating CCM in the FOY, even if they were still running. Adriano had more of an excuse, but I\'m not using him either.

[ajkreider]

Sorry,  counted Anak Nakal at hitting the board in a prep when he clearly hasn\'t.  Should be 7 of the 11 beaten by CCM hit the board in preps - 8 if you count EF.

[jbelfior]

I\'m not one to put much stock in perfect inside post trips at Gulfstream Park. RIP... TECHNOLOGY, HIGH FLY, VICAR, UNBRIDLED\'S SONG.

Possible preview of Derby odds; from a Thoroughbred Times poll as of this morning.

COLONEL JOHN 24%
BIG BROWN 20%
PYRO  11%
ADRIANO 7%
EIGHT BELLES 6%
DENIS OF CORK 6%
GAYEGO 6%


All other 13 add up to 20%.




Good Luck,
Joe B

[RICH]

I been on the smooth air bandwagon and workout watch for 3 months and I plan on staying the trip, but I will also use Court Vision, check out the last race, he was coming, he hated the \"greasy track\", he was all over it. If you remember, the day before with torrential rains they cancelled aqu and sealed the track, the track wasn\'t right. In addition, a 2 yr old win over CD track helps, the last number won\'t get it done, but I see a foward move, and Mott/Gomez only help. A live one.

[congaree1]

CCM has all ready run as fast as CJ twice and one of them was at Churchill. I would rather bet CCM then CJ. Not sure why people are in love with this horse,but I will tell you this. He was life and death to get by BBJ a sprinter and he is plain SLOW! The funny thing is around 17 horses between the Fillies and Colts have run faster then CJ. Yes, his pattern is very explosive, but I do not see it explosive enough to suggest taking 5-1 or less. Good observation on CCM, though!

[miff]

Cong,

You are forgetting that many Cali synth horses are \"outrunning\" their figs (several tops) when switching to dirt. Not to say CJ will, but it is certainly something to consider since he worked giant over the CD strip.


Mike

[congaree1]

Miff, Your totally correct. But even if he does, don\'t you think he has to still jump big? Logic tells me to forgive Pyro,who IMO is cleary better than CJ.

[miff]

Cong,

Thats what we don\'t know about horses coming off synth/poly. His present figs may be understated by that surface. Maybe his synth 3 is equal to a dirt 1.Not questioning the synth figs but the ability of horses to run fast per figs on the synth surface itself.


Mike

[marcus]

i wouldn\'t count her out- remember rocky IV she shows up in siberia early 3rd reel .  in a rocky context, i\'m looking at the chances for adrian-o about the same as monba\'s - better than rockys chances for trying to catch the chicken in  pt.II but not as good as him giving the slip to the kgb in pt. IV ...

[P-Dub]

Good point Mike.  

Congaree,
Saying he was life and death to get by BBJ is a little dramatic, if not just plain ridiculous.  This horse was just starting to get rolling at that point and galloped out tremendously. As Miff pointed out, horses running on synthetics have outrun their figs when shipping.  Again, ignore at your own risk.

[fkach]

I wasn\'t watching all races at SA during that period, but I recently read an article that suggested that the outside paths were playing better at SA around the time of the SA Derby. That supposedly accounted for a lot of the zigging and zagging through the stretch. The jocks were trying to manuever to the best paths.

[congaree1]

As ridiculous as it may sound,I\'m am ignoring CJ!! He was solid at 2, but not that fast. Infact, he is still not that fast and my guess is he will run well, but not enough too catch the faster ones. I think he is actually getting more attention than Big Brown. Maybe CJ will be the favorite. Good luck too all.

[miff]

\"Anybody with a pre-conceived notion of trying to beat Big Brown on Saturday might want to reconsider after watching the gorgeous colt train over this racetrack for the first time Tuesday. In what could be called nothing short of a perfect morning, Big Brown looked awesome as he broke off under exercise rider Michelle Nevin near the six-furlong pole and simply glided over the racetrack while full of energy and seemingly oblivious to his new surroundings. Changing leads right on cue on every turn and moving fluidly for a horse of his stature, Big Brown was the picture of class while exuding the same type of confidence trainer Rick Dutrow has displayed since his horse won his 3-year-old debut earlier this winter at Gulfstream Park\"

[Uncle Buck]

Big Brown had me at hello:-)