Eight Belles v. Dennis of Cork

[scottv]

has anyone compared the one mile races run at Oaklawn on Feb. 17 and 18?
Eight Belles ran the first day, 6/5 ths slower than Dennis of Cork, who ran the very next day, but it looks like EB is faster on some of the speed fig sheets.

That is a big difference, to me, in just 24 hours time, to have DC run a full second and one fifth faster at the same distance.

Not sure EB is able to hand the fast pace fractions she is going to see.

Something about EB makes me nervous though.

[Sandreadis]

I\'m sure JB would tell you to read \"changing track speeds\" in the archive section but tracks can change dramatically in a matter of minutes for many different reasons. Rest assured that TG figures factor in these changes as well as ground loss and weight carried.

[RICH]

Nervous why?, she\'s a filly, slower than the best, automatic throwout. Fillies 2-38 in the derby. Never bet a filly vs males, ever

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, fillies have done a little better than your cite.

Regret
Genuine Risk
Winning Colors

3 for 38 or whatever the ratio, it may be better than the colts winning ratio. Last year 1 colt in 20 entries won the race. That would extrapolate out to 3 in 60.

Though, I do believe you generally have to have a special filly to run her with the colts. Or less than exceptional colts.........or best of all both.

By the way RICH, Hard Spun ran a bang up Derby last year. He just ran into a horse for the course and a masterful ride.


RICH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nervous why?, she\'s a filly, slower than the best,
> automatic throwout. Fillies 2-38 in the derby.
> Never bet a filly vs males, ever

[RICH]

Re: Hard Spun, that was my point, I will throw Cj in there, against my own wishes. The poly dilemma

[MonmouthGuy]

In Beyer\'s chat, he says he is tossing both BB and CJ.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/chats/beyer.html

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Beyer isn\'t much of a barometer. He also refused to pick a winner. He got lucky with Street Sense last year and refuses to go out on a limb.

I\'ll pick one for him. I am thoroughly enamored with Big Brown, Eight Belles, Colonel John and Z Fortune. Currently in that order, subject to change, with a a few just below them that could make the Tri and Super.

Smooth Air fell from favor with the virus. That could change if he works well and or gets a nice hole.

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In Beyer\'s chat, he says he is tossing both BB and
> CJ.
>
> http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/chats/bey
> er.html

[TreadHead]

All this smooth air talk is beyond ridiculous.  This horse was out kicked in the stretch by Big Truck 2 races back and was not even in shouting distance of Brown in his last and beat Tomcito and Hey Bryn, who couldn\'t even make this race.  

He has neither the speed to stay with Big Brown in the front part of the race, nor the closing kick to stay up with the closers if things should happen to collapse on the front end.  He is a very easy throwout, virus or no virus.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big Brown, Eight Belles, Colonel John and Z
> Fortune. Currently in that order, subject to
> change, with a a few just below them that could
> make the Tri and Super.

Chalkles the Clown:

Im mildly disappointed.

One of the great wagering events in any year and the best you can do
is come up with 3 horses that every drunk in the infield is going to
have on their tickets?

[fkach]

I don\'t like Eight Bells as much as some other people. She has some nice figures and has been working well, but she hasn\'t even been racing against the best 3YO fillies in the country. She\'s beating some nice ones, but she\'s not even crushing them. The handful of fillies that have raced well against high quality colts have typically been dominant against the best fillies and already looked like real standouts against their own sex. I\'m not even sure she\'s the best or even 2nd best 3YO filly in the country. IMO, for her to win, it\'s going to take all the most talented colts to misfire and no one else to step up.

[fkach]

>>>One of the great wagering events in any year and the best you can do
is come up with 3 horses that every drunk in the infield is going to
have on their tickets?>>>

LMAO. ;-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Last year the 1st, 4th and 2nd choices made the Tri and the Super paid 30K.

I have a simple strategy in the Derby. I don\'t bomb. I take what I believe to be the best horses. The sheer number of entries provides the value.. I think the filly will be 12-1 or more. Z Fortune 25-1.

The drunks may have Big Brown and Colonel John, but I\'m not even sure of CJ. He didn\'t impress me until that work but now I\'m sold, and you know the drunks cash one every now and then too. Tiznow liked the strip and CJ has that Turkoman broodmare and Damascus back there. He\'s bred top flight. I\'ll spot 3 TGraph points based on that move. My vote for best looking moves go to CJ, Big Brown (just on his appearance) and Eight Belles in that order.



richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Big Brown, Eight Belles, Colonel John and Z
> > Fortune. Currently in that order, subject to
> > change, with a a few just below them that could
> > make the Tri and Super.
>
> Chalkles the Clown:
>
> Im mildly disappointed.
>
> One of the great wagering events in any year and
> the best you can do
> is come up with 3 horses that every drunk in the
> infield is going to
> have on their tickets?

[richiebee]

Chalkles:

I was an infield drunk in 1976 when Bold Forbes dashed to Derby glory. 32 years
later, on this Saturday, I will be a living room drunk.

Comments on your top 3:

BB-- I have gotten private messages admonishing/warning me that it is foolish to
toss the Big Brownie. I get the feeling that this year a lot of big serious
bettors who usually leave the Derby to the tourists and infield drunks are
looking  forward to dumping a big wager on this one somewhere between 5/2 and
7/2. Knowledgeable horsepeople who usually do not get excited are excited about
this one.

Tricky has a daily spot in the New York Post leading up to the Derby. BB missed
about 45 days of training when Tricky first got him, meaning that whatever
foundation he had leading up to his 2YO debut was eradicated and they had to go
back to square one.

Not only short on foundation, but in his 3 lifetime races he has never faced
adversity. TOSS.

CJ-- This colt has never run badly and has breeding for the distance. If it
weren\'t for those bear paws on the TG sheets(or the triangles in DRF) denoting
that all of his races have been synthetic people might be talking about this
one as a candidate to break the 30 year Triple Crown drought.

Eight Belles-- I love the fact owner Porter played coy (\"We\'ll see what kind of
post she gets before we decide whether to run in the Derby\") and got the
outside post in the Oaks. I now suspect that Eight Belles will run on Saturday
unless she draws post 19 or 20. My knocks against her are documented, and
whatever odds she goes off at will be about 1/2 of what she should be because of
what I call the \"pants suit\" factor...she will get a lot of action based solely
on her gender.

I have not finished my preparations for Oaks/Derby weekend, which include (A)
absorbing the seminar, (B) planning Saturday\'s menu and (C) going to the liquor
store, but I have already determined that I will be making a rather large Oaks/
Derby double wager on 2 animals who have never raced on dirt: Country Star/
Colonel John.

[Flighted Iron]

CTC,

 On the contrary re barometer.Imo he\'s an excellent gauge in the fact his overall
history of handicapping the derby has been subpar.Wasn\'t too enamored with his
quoting luk(ass) either.

 I like your point re top 3 choices last year,their finish and the super payout.

[RICH]

Chuckles

What does everyone see in country star at 4-1, there are several faster or just as fast, let me in on the secret, I see her as a toss at that price.