One ex-pro's take on the derby

[mjellish]

My name is Michael Jellish.  This is my first post here, but I thought I would chime in my two cents.  I used to play professionally but got married, had a kid, etc., and had to get something going for myself that was more suitable for family living.  So I started a direct mail company and now I make my living by helping other people gamble their own money.  I\'m based in Minneapolis and call Canterbury Park my home track, but I still get out to Gulfstream and Saratoga every year.  Aside from that I\'m more or less a casual player, but there aren\'t many people here in Minnesota that know how to read a Racing Form or Brisnet much less a TG pattern.  So I am thankful to say that I am still able to pick my spots and make a few nice scores at the local strip just by following the races and doing my homework.  For what it is worth, I think this year\'s derby is one of those spots and I plan on making a killing.  

This year it\'s simple.  You either buy into BB or you don\'t.  There is no reason to debate it because no matter which way you look at it there is a ton of money to be made by taking a stand.  If you buy-in you have an obvious win key horse for the Tri\'s and Supers that is not going to be 2/5.  If not you have a vulnerable favorite that may not even hit the board.  

For my part, I was at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby.  We all know how the race turned out.  But I can tell you that BB galloped out very strong around the turn after the race as if the 1 1/4 won\'t be a problem.  Now he did not gallop out and just keep going and going like Barbaro did in \'06, but then again Barbaro went to the half in 47 plus change and BB went in 45 plus, which is a whole different cut of meat.  It is well known that BB has had hoof troubles in both front feet.  At the time of the Florida Derby the first hoof was almost totally healed, but the second hoof was still pretty bad because it was originally injured in the ALWN1X race.  BB also had a slight ankle problem that was related to the hoof at the time of FL Derby.  I get all of this from a very reliable source and you will just have to choose to believe me or not.  It was reported that BB was being worked on by noted hoof expert Dr. McKinlay, but this is not the case for the second foot.  Anyway, this hoof was trimmed back and patched with a special plate, glue epoxy and pulled together with copper clips.  This is state-of-the-art hoof care, the best money can buy.  It is well known that BB was then fitted with special shoes for training and the FL Derby.  Now horses can run and train on a bad hoof, much like a LB can still run and tackle if he is a little gimpy from last week\'s game.  But the moral of the story is this.  We use TG numbers because they are the best in the business.  We look for patterns about how fast a horse has run in the past and try to predict how fast they are going to run today. The horse that ran in the Florida Derby was not 100% healthy nor fully cranked due to his physical issues and the limited opportunities he had to train.  We all saw what he did from the 12 post anyway.  This was the most impressive race by any 3 year old this year, case closed.  So what are we supposed to make of a healthy BB, his overall pattern and that big negative number?

Bounce?
Off?
Pair?
New Top?  
 
Lets look at the circumstances he will face in this race to see if they are favorable or non-favorable for BB.  The negatives are he lacks seasoning, has never had dirt kicked back in his face, has never faced this type of field, may have a tough post, trainer has no triple crown experience, etc.  These are all good points.  The positives are that at this point BB has proven he is by far the fastest horse in the race, he has the hotest jockey in the game, it is a near pace-less derby which should flatter his running style, he has enough tactical speed to secure a decent stalking or front running trip from almost any post, and just about every other horse in the race has some question marks around them...  By the way, for anyone that doesn\'t think BB can rate if someone decides to run 45 or 46 to the half, I suggest viewing his ALWN1X 2 races back.  He seemed quite comfortable stalking the pace from the 3 path and did not flinch or try to run off when another horse drove up to his inside along the rail.  This is not a need the lead type horse.

So we have a lightly raced horse with plenty of rest between starts that is now fit as a fiddle and in the best physical shape he has ever been in that will face a favorable pace scenerio at a distance he should be able to handle.  All of this would suggest another pair or even a slight new top.  Either one of which will bury this field.  Even if BB were to regresses two full points he is still probably fast enough to win anyway.
 
So rather than looking for a reason to talk myself off of him, I am going to embrace the machine.  I am not inclined to play favorites, but I am confident that I am putting my money on what appears to be the best horse who is getting favorable circumstances.  Nonetheless, I agree with Rich- there is no way you can take him at 5/2.  That\'s just getting the worst of it.  Besides-THIS IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY.  The best horse doesn\'t always win, we have multi-million dollar pools to work worth and there won\'t be enough Jack Daniels in the world for me if I take 5/2 and lose.  

So I am going to key this freak of a horse over two horses that I feel have the best chance to hit the board.  CJ\'s merits are obvious, he is going to love the dirt, he is the safest play, but he will also be over-bet.  I may have to use him anyway because there is still plenty of room to make money in the tri\'s and supers.  

My one sure horse is DOC.  His pattern looks to me like he is ready to explode and move forward from his previous top.  Also, one of my former gambling colleagues who is still hard at it has privately clocked every Kentucky Derby workout at Churchill since 1993 (except the year he got divorced), and he insists that DOC\'s final work was the best one he has seen this year.  This is a guy who got a few of us off Holy Bull in \'94 after telling us that the horse was blowing like a VW Bus after an easy 5F breeze, so I trust his judgement when it comes to horse flesh.

As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others.  My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board.  I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board.  I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under.  I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.  

So much for taking 5/2.

Happy hunting at the IRS windows!

[alm]

Thanks for a great way of looking at betting this possible outcome.  Not sure if I totally agree with the keys you\'ve suggested and would like to know what your friend thought of CJ\'s workout, because it looked like the easiest-run bullet I\'ve seen in awhile.  It\'s been my thought that he might transform into a very high level horse on the dirt and the workout suggests that may be the case even if it doesn\'t guarantee anything.

[Flighted Iron]

M Jellish,

  Do you have a contingency plan in place if the track is off?

[fkach]

The more I look at this race the more baffled I get about how to construct a bet.

In most Derbys, there is a legitimate debate about who the best horse is in addition to what direction they all might be heading. In this case, IMO the major debate is which direction BB is likely to go and how extreme the move is likely to be. IMO we already know who the best horse is.

I hated a lot of the other big figure horses that failed in the Derby for a variety of reasons other than a potential performance related bounce. I can\'t find anything in BB\'s PPs to hate. I think all his efforts are legit and perhaps even better than they look on paper. To me, he started out looking like a special horse in his turf debut regardless of the what the speed figures say. He came home like a potential champion that day. He has done nothing since to lead me to believe he\'s anything other than special. He has only enhanced my original view. So when I see his fast figure, it doesn\'t spook me as much as if it came from some mediocrity that jumped up to that level out of nowhere or if it was earned under favorable coditions. I think BB is simply very very good.  

All that said, I can see scenarios that get him beat here. THere is some speed inside of him and he\'s way outside. He could easily either get used too hard clearing them into the first turn or get hung wide chasing a fast enough pace to do some damage. Also, since he is a somewhat fragile and inexperienced, he  may not be ready for this assignment even though he\'s the best horse.

It\'s really tough to take 5-2 to win.

It\'s really tough to key such a vulnerable horse at 5-2 on top only.

IMO, it makes no sense at all to key him in multiple positions because I think he\'s more of an all or nothing horse than the \"typical\" 5-2 shot.

However, it could easily be financial suicide to toss him out totally when IMHO he\'s so obviously the best horse to date.

What to do?

[mjellish]

Alm-

My clocker said that CJ\'s work was nothing short of awesome.  He was blowing quite hard afterwards but that is to be expected.  He said CJ would probably get a lot out of it and should take to the dirt.  Leave off your tickets at your own risk.

As an FYI, my clocker also said that BB blew out very easily this morning and was fighting his rider to do more before and after the work.  He said he did seem to abruptly change leads right at the end of his work but that was probably because his rider was very aggressively trying to pull him up.  Not sure if that means anything or not.

Iron, I am a terrible slop handicapper.  My best play in the slop would probably be to cut all my wagers in 1/2.  Would appreciate any advice anyone has that may be better at handicapping the soup.

That aside, I think BB would handle the slop just fine with the Danzig line on top of his pedigree.  Adriano, Dennis of Cork and Z Humor would probably move up, though the only one I really like is DC.  Pyro ran well in the slop at the BC, but I think he will really be up against it no matter what.  He has a tendency to make his move in the stretch, where most Derbys are won on the turn, and by the 1/8th pole the race is usually over unless the early fractions were suicidal enough to really set up the deep closers.  I would probably downgrade Gayego and Court Vision as well.

So there you have it.  Given my track record in the slop, if it rains go box Gayego, Court Vision and Pyro and you will probably be on your way to cashing a ticket as you pass me on my way to the bar...

[Rick B.]

Thanks for your insights.

The part about laying out \"X\" amount in bets with targeted range of return of \"Y to Z\" is intriguing to me. While I\'ve tried to measure expected return on individual bets, I\'ve never looked at a race as a whole and said, OK, the minimum I expect to make on the race is a composite 6-1 (as an example) over the total amount invested.

Interesting concept...feels like something I should have been considering long ago.

[TGJB]

Ex-pro-- Your guy has the horse changing leads abruptly today after a 3f breeze. Mike Welsch in DRF has has him going on the wrong lead yesterday, but thinks he\'s just \"nitpicking\".

After taking a bad step and bearing in badly right after that in his last race, this horse has been kept mostly out of sight and not stressed with a serious work, so it\'s not surprising he\'s full of himself. I\'m pretty sure he\'s going to be stressed Saturday, and that\'s not nitpicking.

[alm]

Add to it that all of the speed of the race is inside of him, and that dropping in behind them to gain position will be extraordinarily tough, as there are several others who will be doing the same, this puppy will never see the rail, much less get near it, much less save any ground at any point in the trip...NFW as they say in my household.

[mjellish]

I hear you TGJB.  But I don\'t think you would argue that BB is the most talented horse of this group so far.  My info tells me he is doing better than he ever has and I think this and his talent are enough to get past this field.  There is no Hardspun, Street Sense or Curlin in this group as far as I can tell.  The second and third choices have yet to run fast as 3 year olds, some of the ones that have run fast have sprint pedigrees and lack sustainable speed, many have not run fast enough to win unless they move way forward, and some of the ones that have run fast did not wow me with their works leading up to race.  They may bounce.  The filly has never went further than 1 1/16, Smooth Air looked good on paper but spiked a fever and looked lethargic in his work today, etc.  I could go on and on.  But what the heck, I sure could be wrong about all of this and BB may finish off the board.  That\'s exactly what I said in my initial post, and this is exactly what makes this such a great betting race.  No matter which side of the fence you are on there is a ton of money to be made.

 
This may also be nitpicking, but I don\'t think BB took a bad step in the Florida Derby.  He has a tendency to bear out, and what I saw in the race was the jock pull hard on the left rein several times to keep BB from veering out.  BB then veered suddenly to the inside, as would be expected, and Kent nearly bounced out of the saddle.  I think the replay will confirm what I am saying.  My clocker said BB changed leads today only after the exercise rider tried to pull him up aggressively, and I don\'t think not changing leads during a routine gallop is any cause for concern.  I do not have any first hand knowledge of his final work at Pmm, but I would call 5F in 58 and change a serius work.

That\'s what I love about this game.  It\'s all a matter of opinions, translating them into cash, and you don\'t have to be right everytime to be a long-term winner.  I\'m going to take the fastest horse and hope for the best.  

By the way, I enjoyed the seminar very much.  Your figures are tops!

[congaree1]

I rememember a speedy horse, Quintons Gold Rush broke from the 20 post, the year Smarty won. I am not saying Quinton was anything close, just that he was a very fast front runner, coming off a speedy Lexington. He broke well that year and was fast enough to get up with the leaders, into the long first turn. But he was still very wide, maybe 5 wide. The step in the Florida Derby was GROSS, IMO.

[ronwar]

mjellish,

I sent you a private message

[alm]

With all due respect, did you ask yourself WHY this horse has a tendency to veer out in the turn?  On the backstretch at GP the word was he also has a knee, not just a hoof and ankle problem.

I watched the CD workout and although someone wrote how powerful he looked over the surface, I feel I was viewing a horse in some discomfort and not under a strong hold (view Pyro\'s workout for example) going fairly slowly and sketchily over the ground.

[TGJB]

The only point I would add (having said everything else in the seminar) is, as I said after the Fla. Derby, that I have watched that stretch run at least 5 times. He took a bad step a little before the 16th pole-- watch the horse\'s head.

[fkach]

>The only point I would add (having said everything else in the seminar) is, as I said after the Fla. Derby, that I have watched that stretch run at least 5 times. He took a bad step a little before the 16th pole-- watch the horse\'s head.<

I understand your view on every aspect of this horse (including those expressed in the seminar), but I\'m not sure I understand the relevance of this.  

Horses take bad steps all the time. It\'s a somewhat random event.

Why would bearing in/out after a bad step be so significant?

I would think a BI/BO would be worse if there was no excuse for the behavior. He continued on well after that and even went out well after the finish. It didn\'t look like he hurt himself at that point or was hurting before/afterwards.

[TGJB]

The idea is that the bad step is an effect, not a cause.

The workout Mike Welsch commented on is the same one Ex-pro\'s guy saw him switch leads abruptly at the end of. I was pretty sure he could run 3f that fast even before he did it.