One ex-pro's take on the derby

[Michael D.]

thanks Mike. good stuff. here\'s my initial analysis:


BB\'s post worries me, especially with the main speed 17 through 19. if he\'s asked to do too much early, we could see the same type finish as in the Fla Derby, and that will entail a very slow final 1/8. if Kent can get him 2w or 3w just off a :46.5 or :47 pace, he should carry the speed imo, and he\'s 50% to win. problem is, with the draw, BB might only be 50% to get the trip needed to win. at 2-1 ish, my guess will be that things don\'t go according to plan for the unseasoned colt, and we watch the best horse in the race run 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

Colonel John is a very tough call - no way around that. the work moves the colt up, but how low do you chase the odds here? can you take 7-2 on a colt that needs a big new top? well, possibly. this colt looks like the quintessential Ky Derby runner.

Z Fortune - perfect post, and a nice looking pattern imo. last might be fast enough to win. a bounce on three weeks is possible, but at 15-1, he\'s worth a use.

Denis of Cork - I\'m stuck with him from futures bets back in Feb, but I still think he has a shot. \'5.5\' 4w first out tells you he can run. \'0.25\' in the Southwest fast enough to put him close here. the bottom of his pedigree is well suited for the 10f. post 16 not great, but expecting a decent pace here. could very well be a back running middle distance horse, but at ml of 20-1, he offers some value imo.


use these four in the top spots, with DoC the key.

Pyro, Visionaire, and Monba round out the tickets.

[Eight Belles]

TGJB Wrote:
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> The idea is that the bad step is an effect, not a
> cause.
>
> The workout Mike Welsch commented on is the same
> one Ex-pro\'s guy saw him switch leads abruptly at
> the end of. I was pretty sure he could run 3f that
> fast even before he did it.

True enough, TGJB, but with the Derby only 2 days away, it doesn\'t look like a physical problem is going to keep BB out of the Derby.  And we\'re not betting on whether he holds up for 2 more races or all year, only if he can get through the Derby.  So, when talking of possible physical issues, I guess we have to guess whether they\'re going to take their toll in his next race in 2 days.  My guess is that they\'re not.  They may affect him afterwards though.

That said, I\'m tossing BB, but for other reasons (of which there are plenty).

[Flighted Iron]

So,you\'re saying he bounces off the moon fig-wise or you think the horse is
unsound?

[Flighted Iron]

So,you\'re saying he bounces off the moon fig-wise or you think the horse is
unsound?

[Flighted Iron]

Three cheers.Second the motion!The Essence speaks no more loudly than in the moment.R Dutrow,son of R Dutrow Senior who honed his training skills with all time
winning horsemen.I hope for BB,racing and all alike the elder statesmen\'s essence
has passed to the son.

[Flighted Iron]

Do you feel your namesake will move forwardly if the surface becomes off with
consideration towards Unbridled?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its always good to toss a favorite and cash with higher priced horses. Before we get too excited upon Big Brown\'s lead changes from his last workout lets consider all that he \"displayed\" in that workout.

Dutrow says the horse\'s feet are cold and he\'s so excited, I believe him.

The work was :35 and 2. The jock never moved her hands and sat high in the saddle. She never urged BJB in any manner. Before his break off he was bucking and throwing his head, after the workout he was doing the same. Coming off the turn there was as deft and pretty a lead change to get to his left lead as you\'re ever going to see. Past the wire, almost on the turn, there was a lead change back to his right lead while being reined in. You could say that changing leads at that juncture was due to an \"issue\". You could also say BJB \"right leads\" when slowing down under restraint or that he was preparing to go right lead to handle the clubhouse turn because he wanted a lot more. The bucking and playing post workout was the best evidence to me.

:mjellish Wrote:
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> Alm-
>
> My clocker said that CJ\'s work was nothing short
> of awesome.  He was blowing quite hard afterwards
> but that is to be expected.  He said CJ would
> probably get a lot out of it and should take to
> the dirt.  Leave off your tickets at your own
> risk.
>
> As an FYI, my clocker also said that BB blew out
> very easily this morning and was fighting his
> rider to do more before and after the work.  He
> said he did seem to abruptly change leads right at
> the end of his work but that was probably because
> his rider was very aggressively trying to pull him
> up.  Not sure if that means anything or not.
>
> Iron, I am a terrible slop handicapper.  My best
> play in the slop would probably be to cut all my
> wagers in 1/2.  Would appreciate any advice anyone
> has that may be better at handicapping the soup.
>
> That aside, I think BB would handle the slop just
> fine with the Danzig line on top of his pedigree.
> Adriano, Dennis of Cork and Z Humor would probably
> move up, though the only one I really like is DC.
> Pyro ran well in the slop at the BC, but I think
> he will really be up against it no matter what.
> He has a tendency to make his move in the stretch,
> where most Derbys are won on the turn, and by the
> 1/8th pole the race is usually over unless the
> early fractions were suicidal enough to really set
> up the deep closers.  I would probably downgrade
> Gayego and Court Vision as well.
>
> So there you have it.  Given my track record in
> the slop, if it rains go box Gayego, Court Vision
> and Pyro and you will probably be on your way to
> cashing a ticket as you pass me on my way to the
> bar...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry,

I\'m not sure what Brown\'s strategy is, but of one thing I\'m certain. If he wants to he can kiss these horses goodbye 1 furlong out of the gate. He can have the rail first turn and if its slop I expect him to. He has the ability to make the race stress free and turn it merely into a test of whether he can get the distance.

TGJB Wrote:
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> Ex-pro-- Your guy has the horse changing leads
> abruptly today after a 3f breeze. Mike Welsch in
> DRF has has him going on the wrong lead yesterday,
> but thinks he\'s just \"nitpicking\".
>
> After taking a bad step and bearing in badly right
> after that in his last race, this horse has been
> kept mostly out of sight and not stressed with a
> serious work, so it\'s not surprising he\'s full of
> himself. I\'m pretty sure he\'s going to be stressed
> Saturday, and that\'s not nitpicking.

[Eight Belles]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Do you feel your namesake will move forwardly if
> the surface becomes off with
> consideration towards Unbridled?

I think she\'ll be fine if the track is off.  But I\'m not expecting it to be off.  Weather.com says:

Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. High 72F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.  20% chance of precipitation.

[MonmouthGuy]

In today\'s NY Post, Tricky says he expects BB to go off at 8/5.

Personally, I do not see any way for BB to clear the field by the clubhouse turn.  However, he is damned if he does, damned if he doesn\'t.  If he does, he will probably run the 1/2 faster than Songandaprayer.  If he doesn\'t, I expect him to be 4-5W.

[mjellish]

Perhaps I am missing something here, but I\'m not seeing a fast pace or 4-5w trip for BB.  I just don\'t see anyone in the field that truly looks fast. Where are the need the lead horses inside BB?

Does Gayego need the lead?  Are his connections confident enough in his pedigree to try take them wire-wire? ?

Is Recapture the Glory truly fast?  This guy ran 48.6 to the half in the Illinois Derby on a day when 4000 claimers went 48.4 in another route.  He is a solid one paced runner that will probably try to lay down steady 12 and change furlongs and bears watching in races down the line, but not on Sat.

Is Cowboy Cal truly fast?  Is he going to go 45 and change coming out of Turf routes and the Poly race?

Have the connections of BBJ hinted about trying to go to try to go wire-to-wire?  If so why didn\'t they take the 2 hole when they could have?  They are going to try to ration out this colt\'s speed.

Tale of Ekati has enough speed to be up front early, but are his connections going to send him after chasing War Pass and watching their colt stagger home his final 3/8ths in 40 sec?

Where the Spanish Chestnuts, Songandaprayer, Quintons Gold Rush, Lion Heart, Sinister Minister, Balto Star, Keyed Entry...

There is no nead the lead type in this derby.  It is near paceless.  Closest thing to it is Cowboy Cal.  So how does BB get hung out 4-5 wide on the first turn?



Does Gayego need the lead?

[mjellish]

Oh yeah,

Happy Oaks Day!!!!!!!!

[ronwar]

mjellish,

You echo all of my points.  I don\'t see that type of speed in this race.  I think the only pacesetter who actually wants the lead, outside of BB is recapturetheglory.  I think he will be pushed hard to get it.  I think everyone else wants to track, ration their speed and hope BB doesn\'t run his race. I do not see any other trainer/owner saying to the jock, get to the front and take\'em as far as you can go except for the recapturetheglory connections.

[fkach]

I agree. There are no need the lead types, but there are a bunch of stalker/speed types. Among them, Bob Black Jack has shown sprint speed (and gets B\'s on). They are all going to have the same thing in mind as Desormeaux. They are going to want to save some ground and get position. So they are all likely to get at least mildly aggressive trying. Given that they are all inside BB, I think outsprinting them all is very likely to translate into a quick 1st quarter even though it\'s well within his range to do so. IMO, the more likely scenario is trying to sit off the first flight initially unless a stalking position falls into his lap. Sitting off the first flight will probably find him 2-3 wide.

[RICH]

I suscribe to a pace program, the last 4 horses show extreme pace with Big quiren(sp?) numbers and high pace fig #\'s to the 6f. There is mucho sp in this race, the way I see it. It won\'t be easy for anyone on or close to the speed especially BBJ and the last 4 in the race.