Confused??

[Themig]

It has been a long ride on this board listening to everyone\'s opinion from way back in Feb. As I sat and read my notes, and tried to come up with a smart ticket for today, it seemed like the last three months of this board kept passing through my head like a tidal weapon of mass confusion. I felt like the best way to make an unbiased opinion would be to rip each page from the binder, cover the horses name, mix the sheets up, and then start from scratch......
Good luck to everyone, and a safe trip for all involved !

Almost forgot to mention:

1)Visionaire
2)Pyro
3)Big Brown
4)Recapturetheglory

[SoCalMan2]

1) Big Brown
2) Pyro
3) Tale of Ekati
4) Anak Nakal
5) Cool Coal Man
6) Smooth Air

Big Brown Too good. Field should be strung out -- giving him a Hard Spun type of trip at worst.  He benefits from there being no Street Sense this year (plus he is better than Hard Spun). Don\'t give a horse a bounce until he gives you one first.  Only issue is physical infirmity.  If he is injured, then shame on them for running him.  Pyro Disregard Poly non-effort, circling back to his two year old top which is not too shabby.  Tale of Ekati Coa on the rail should be able to work out a decent trip with a horse that finally improved last out.  Pair up is not a stretch. Anak Nakal Zito\'s horses usually jump up in the Spring and his two entrants have not yet.  Looking for each to today.  This one was blocked from an undefeated juvenile campaign by Etched who disappeared into the Middle East, but was not bad when he was with us.  Draw a line through the two \"resortplace\" races and this guy looks great.  Clearly does not like to be more south than Kentucky.  Note the buried fig indicator.  Cool Coal Man Another Zito.  Pure pattern play.  Slower than a lot of others in here but came back to good two year old top and waiting to explode.  Disregard the poly.  A rail job could be nice.  Don\'t know if the jockey is up to it.  Smooth Air Has the most solid sheet of anybody.  Too bad he got sick.  Might still run a good one.

Key strategy is keying Big Brown in the first slot and hoping to catch some real value down below in the Pentafecta and Superfecta.  Tons of live horses in the race at high odds.  As far as I can tell, there are only two bona fide throw outs -- Gayego and Recapturetheglory.  If one of them breaks the top 5, then I am done for.

[twoshoes]

Plenty - I\'m tossing Big Brown though I realize he\'s probably the most likely winner. I think, for me anyway, at the price he\'s a horrible gamble. Huge top off of no foundation, erratic course in the lane, five weeks rest, front bandages, bad feet, post 20... not hard for me to make that decision at 5-2 in a 20 horse field. The play for me...
Keying Denis of Cork primarily with Pyro and Z fortune. I drew a line through the Blue Grass and I honestly think Z Fortune may be able to get right back to that number in Arkansas. Using Colonel John because he scares the dickens out of me and I find it hard not to factor the poly to dirt improvement I\'ve seen over and over lately. Throwing Tale of Ekati, Eight Belles, Visionaire and Monba into the mix in that order of strength. Shying away from Smooth Air on breeding and primarily the couple days he missed, I don\'t think he had any margin of error. Was thinking seriously about Court Vision but at about twice the price he looks likely to be. Any chance IEAH is talking up Brownie and getting down on CV? Anyway, best of luck to all and may they all come home safe.

[Uncle Buck]

I ended up keying Big Brown and Pyro on top of CV, EB, ZF, VIS, CJ, SA, and DOC. Like So-Cal Man I tossed RCTG and GAYEGO. Gayego scares me. I have a little Cool Coal Man and Monba on the bottom rungs of tri\'s and supers. If my top two run first or second and I get a little help - I\'ll be taking the gal pal to a nice resort somewhere soon.

I bet a lot of money today - money I have been saving for this and money I won from the two KEE preps. If I miss, which is very possible, I hope my cash goes to a good home:-)

I put Colonel John in most of my tickets, but he\'s the biggest guess. Some have jumped way up on dirt from poly, some haven\'t. Also - I think Nakatani\'s inner demons don\'t serve him well in big races and he\'s subject to poor decisions based on aggresion. He\'s been karmically jinxed ever since he pushed Ryan Barber off his horse past the wire at SA eight years ago