I Think It Can Be Safely Said

[ronwar]

That is good recognition Chuck.

[trackjohn]

CTC:

  I\'m speculating...however I believe that Mr. Brown is implying that the \'huge efforts/pattern\' of BB is quite similar to Barbaro.

[fkach]

Chuckles,

I just watched the rest of the replays. I think I\'d have a tough time calling the rail dead. But CD is one of those tracks where is just seems that outside horses often don\'t have a great deal of difficulty keeping up with the horses inside of them or rallying wider on the turn. When I see many of the races developing like that it always makes me wonder whether the outside paths are a little faster or there\'s something about the banking of the turns etc...that negates some of the disadvantage of being wide.

Obviously something like that would matter in how you evaluate BB\'s Derby peformance. It was either very feakish or just very very good. ;-)

[MO]

Pyro has never gotten back to his 2 yo top. He\'s toast.....

[jimbo66]

I would be really surprised if that is JB was going to say.  The patterns are not similar.

From memory, Barbaro had a nice improving line, a top of about 1 in the Fla Derby.  he was poised to move forward in the Derby, although as I recall he was about the 6th or 7th fastest coming in and for me was a big underlay, despite the nice pattern.

Eight Belles had 4 very big efforts, right in a row, with a bear in or bear out in the last one.  This handicapper/fool thought she was over the top, as indicated by her bear in/bear out and I thought short term improvement was very unlikely, although I was certainly wrong.

Not a great comparison from a recent form/pattern perspective.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Beyer was WRONG on Big Brown in the Florida Derby and it looks to me that he is compounding the problem with his 109 figure now.

[miff]

Jim,

In my translation,Beyer adjusted at 106 was correct in the FD, equal to a TG neg 3-ish.Why would BB\'s effort in the derby confirm any fig?, Beyer or TG(Rags had it slower).If he ran last yesterday, would TG and Beyer be wrong, I think not.

Fyi, Beyer 109 adjusted for 126lbs and ground (app 6 total paths lost) is app neg 4 on TG.If you saw the Rags yesterday, I did, you would have tossed your selection TOE who had an 8 or 9 in the Wood, app a TG 5.There were great differences betwen the 3 on 8 Belles which now appears to confirm that TG had her correctly consistently faster than Beyer/Rags.

My opinion after watching and reviewing the entire card is that BB ran an excellent performance figure as did the filly,the rest, a disgrace.A mulligan may be in order for Recaturetheglory who flipped in the tunnel pre race and did more running than, TOE or DOC.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- when Beyer deals with the Derby, the 126 pounds effectively washes out, since they all carry it, and it\'s the only 1 1/4 race. They will do it using the horses in the race, tying it loosely to the other route-- as they should, otherwise they would rob all the 3yos. So no weight correction Beyer/TG in this case.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Ok, if your translation beyer to tg is correct, then I stand corrected.  I struggle with it though, especially from the perspective of comparison over the course of the last 10 year period.  Big Brown\'s Beyer is slower than Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Barbaro and significantly slower than Smarty Jone\'s Derby.  But on TG it will be the fastest ever?  I guess this goes back to \"how fast are horses getting faster\" and that whole debate.

As for your comments on Tale of Ekati.  Enough Miff.  The horse ran.  Most of us knew this was a subpar group of 3 year olds, except for Big Brown and the filly.  Amongst that subpar group. Tale of Ekati was one of the ones, for me.  And he turned out to be that.  The wood was not the shitty prep that you and others gave it.  It turned out to be better than the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass.  I may be an idiot for the way I bet the race, but normally I will take finding a 40-1 that will be in the Super, than finding a 2-1 to put on top.  

TOE ran a representative race, as one of the better 3 year olds of a very bad crop.  

BTW, you are over-rating Recapture the Glory.  Let\'s get in touch if RTG and TOE meet in the future.  I will be happy to make a significant wager on that.

[miff]

JB,

While there were no other 10f races there were still 2 other two turn races. It does not take too much creative license to use them imo.While the derby weight and extra 3/16ths are significant, I could not say that that was the fastest derby in history.The wind thing is a consideration but measuring it\'s real effect in terms of points is way too subjective, imo.

The clock said 2 01.82 and as a student of adjusted splits and track speed, I think you and Mark are going to come out a little fast but I can see your take. Have no idea how Rags will handle this race but big ground loss runners on that product usually get good figs almost regarless of how fast they run.In fairness, I have very limited looks at their stuff.

Your analysis was well thought out,imo. For me it was as simple as Tricky being peerless with 5 weeks spacing,coming off gigantic legit fig which none of these had come close to in my way of looking at races.I told a friend before the race that I felt BB was 5-10 lenghts faster than all of them. Except for the filly, I had it right.

Mike

[miff]

Jim,

\"TOE ran a representative race, as one of the better 3 year olds of a very bad crop\"

What a nice take on a horse that totally tripped out, inside out late and hung like a chandelier.Not that numbers are the be all, but I think that Recapture ran a better fig than TOE, we\'ll see, he certainly ran a better race.Does it tell you something that the Wood winner went off at 37-1 with 100k people betting(95k know zip,imo) How you conclude that it was better than the ARk derby, is beyond me, the BG maybe.

Jim, buddy, you are testy about a horse that is a slow rat like ALL the rest of this crop, except BB.I would not want to bet you head to head as I\'m trying to beat the windows for zillions not you for a few bucks.

Mike

[fkach]

>The wood was not the shitty prep that you and others gave it. It turned out to be better than the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass.<

Jimbo,


IMO, whatever figure you assigned to the Wood, you had to think TOE ran fairly well that day. He was relatively close to War Pass\'s ridiculous pace early and was prompting it while wide. He didn\'t have it as rough as War Pass, but he ran very credibly. Nobody with a much better trip closed him down.

I put hardly any money into the Derby because I thought the whole thing hinged on your opinion of Big Brown. Before the race I thought it was obvious he was special horse, but there were so many question marks, keying him at that price didn\'t inspire a great deal of confidence on my part that I was getting great value. That goes double because I didn\'t hate Pyro (who was a question mark because of the poor Poly race) and didn\'t hate Colonel John either (many of the CA horses were running a lot faster on dirt). If you aren\'t sure you are getting good value on the favorite and can\'t totally toss the 2nd and 3rd choice, it gets pretty difficult to construct a bet.  

For the record, I don\'t think the result tells you much about about what the values were (win or lose). There are always things that can\'t be known before a race. The result doesn\'t tell you what the probabilities were.  

I played TOE across the board for a little rooting action at that price (Cool Coal Man and Monba also), but my mother actually put more money into the race than I did  (do you think I should keep her rebate? LMAO)

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I am done on this topic.  If you find it productive to continue to call them \"slow rats\", so be it.  Slow, fast or average, somebody has to finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  It doesn\'t really mean much if you personally think the ones that finished 3rd through 20th, are slow.  My guess is that when others on this board (not me), cashed their 58k super bets, the tellers didn\'t ask them if Tale of Ekati tripped out or if most of the horses in this year\'s derby were slower than the normal crop.  

Other than identifying Big Brown as a solid 2-1 favorite, not sure what value there was in identifying that all the horses are \"slow\".  That opinion can\'t be translated into any money, at least not until this crop tries older horses.  

As for making zillions.  God Bless, I hope you do.  I know you like BB, so I am sure you cashed.  Considering your disdain for TOE and DOE, I guess this wasn\'t the race for the zillions.  

Take care

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> \"TOE ran a representative race, as one of the
> better 3 year olds of a very bad crop\"
>
> What a nice take on a horse that totally tripped
> out, inside out late and hung like a
> chandelier.Not that numbers are the be all, but I
> think that Recapture ran a better fig than TOE,
> we\'ll see, he certainly ran a better race.Does it
> tell you something that the Wood winner went off
> at 37-1 with 100k people betting(95k know zip,imo)
> How you conclude that it was better than the ARk
> derby, is beyond me, the BG maybe.
>
> Jim, you are testy about a horse that is a slow
> rat like ALL the rest of this crop.I would not
> want to bet you head to head as I\'m trying to beat
> the windows for zillions ot you for a few bucks.


I\'d say ToE and Recapture ran about the same; neither wanted the distance. ToE had a bit of trouble early, and Recapture had to do too much early. honestly, I\'d rate them a toss-up h2h.

I agree on the slow rat theory though. this is not an impressive group of 3 yr olds so far. could be that most of them want 7f to 1 1/16.

[miff]

Jim,

Last post also. Correct on those who collected but that was not the conversation.I\'m much more a double, pick three, 4 or 6  guy. I could not have cashed the race exotic in any way as I\'m not a spreader. Good Luck!


Mike