Richie, I spend a lot of time on the maturing 3YO\'s and the Derby has been good to me, but not any better than any number of other graded races for 3YO\'s. I\'m probably too Scottish and prefer the ease of the format with other performance indicators, which get modified.
I \"modify\" all figures I\'ve ever used and rely more upon what I make of the effort than what a figure producer says. I made my own figures for the Florida circuit for a number of years and found that horses I scored highest didn\'t fair as well as horses that I deduced would run well. That said, I Red Board this time of year to corroborate the performance level of the the crop. Later in the year, I know where they are and don\'t even bother doing that.
Regarding the performance level of the crop, on the TFigs, I don\'t think there were two faster, more consistent horses than the Derby Perfecta horses. BJB had run 0, -2 and Eight Belles four successive O\'s with the weight allowance. Among the modifications were the Derby winner,I modified Smooth Air to a 1. I had Pyro at a 3, I modifed Colonel John to a 0, but believe in all likelihood that he left his race on the training track.
Regarding Eight Belles, she was steadied twice in that affair and was gaining ground on the winner at the end once she got fully in gear. I do think the outside was a little better, but Belles didn\'t get inside until very late. It\'s a shame, she was a very special filly. I think Jones should throw the monkey off his back by entering Proud Spell in the Belmont, but I doubt his courage is there at this time.
Caveat, I also Modifed Denis of Cork and left him out and Bob Black Jack and Monba the wrong direction as well.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Big Clown:
>
> Thats quite an impressive record, and must have
> resulted in quite a financial
> windfall. That being said, how is it that you find
> yourself in the position of
> having to \"red board\" the Derby seminar? Please
> don\'t tell me that the $30 or
> $40 it would cost you to purchase these products
> in advance was a large part of
> your Derby \"stake\" because that would be just too
> sad.
>
> To give credit where due, you correctly identified
> the top 2 finishers in this
> years race well before post time, actually weeks
> before. You also correctly
> stated that the value in this Derby lay in the
> size of the field. I hope you
> were well rewarded for recognizing this.
>
> Sadly for me, this was another year (like 2005)
> where not only did I not cash a
> Derby wager, but there was no point in the race
> where any of the runners I was
> alive with (Oaks/Derby doubles and doubles with
> Einstein) had any chance of
> winning.
