Derby Seminar & Eight Belles

[HP]

It\'s really amazing how people want to assign blame in this.  There is plenty to go around.  Some would argue you can start by blaming all the people who go to the track and bet.  I read Jerry\'s comments as simply meaning the horse could tail off.  Every time a horse runs there is risk.  A horse off a layoff may be at just as much of a risk of breaking down as one that has run on a regular schedule.  It all depends on the horse, and it\'s far from an exact science.

[magicnight]

Jimbo;

Did not mean to suggest that spacing was \"THE\" reason for what happened to Eight Belles. I only have issues with illogical reasoning and dishonest presentation. More than likely, you and me and CTMC are in closer agreement on all of this than we might reasonably expect.

On a separate note, the board has been a great place to be for these last few months. As a faithful reader and an infrequent poster, I want to send my thanks and best wishes to all. In all of the words that have been posted here, I think Miff\'s analysis of the \"Tricky\" factor actually turned out to be the best analysis of the race. But I\'m taking a break for a while. Good luck to all!

Bob

[fkach]

Last night I reviewed her last 5 races. She had a clear general tendency to come in towards the rail through the stretch. I have no idea what that means, but it didn\'t look like she was having a problem of any kind. In the Fantasy, she was outside a horse and the jock was whipping her left handed to keep her straight. She was doing fine until the last few strides when she started to come in and the jock kind of jerked her straight because he had the race won anyway.

[miff]

It seems that the posters on this thread collectively have it correct. There are a number of factors which include Jerry\'s take on the unsound history of Unbridled Songs and Eight Belles many trips to the post by todays standards.My own take is that she would have broken down if she was spending her guts running figs 5,5,5,5 instead of the faster figs she ran.All hard trying runners are on the edge of their physical capabilities regardless of how fast they go when all out.

Check out the posting by Sighthound to DRF\'s article by Dr.Bramlage,it speaks volumes and comes from an up close expert.

Mike

[sekrah]

It\'s pretty arrogant, but he has been pretty sharp the past few years I\'ve been watching this forum.

[smalltimer]

What a joke.

[smalltimer]

Let\'s just have a little contest then.
How bout JB pick 12 random races next Saturday, design a 12 race program and all us cappers put up $ 500.00 to download the PP\'s and winner take 50% and TG keeps 50%?
I\'m game enough to find out, are you Chuckles?
JB can limit it to 20 participants or 50 participants or he can set the rules, the only rule is he can\'t participate since he would pick the races.
They also can\'t be races which are discussed in the forum, may the best capper win.
They can be 2 sprints, 2 routes, 2 turfs, 2 artificial, 2 poly, 1 maiden claimer and 1 maiden special weight race.
When the contest ends, JB can post the results of every entrant and we\'ll see if Chuckles IS THE BEST CAPPER.  
You think you\'re the only guy in the room that can handicap?  I see plenty of others in here that I would hold in high regard as competitors.

[Ron G.]

With the suggestion that banning all race-day medications (running on hay, oats and water) would prevent sore/hurt horses from running, etc.--does anyone know if the percentage of injuries/breakdowns is lower at places, such as Dubai or parts of Europe where race day medications are banned (or mostly banned) than here in the U.S.?

[girly]

Good question!

[sighthound]

To make racing safer, you have to remove some of the speed.  Period.

You breed horses with more bone - that equals more mass, equals less speed.

Safer track surfaces are slower.

[Lost Cause]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let\'s just have a little contest then.
> How bout JB pick 12 random races next Saturday,
> design a 12 race program and all us cappers put up
> $ 500.00 to download the PP\'s and winner take 50%
> and TG keeps 50%?
> I\'m game enough to find out, are you Chuckles?
> JB can limit it to 20 participants or 50
> participants or he can set the rules, the only
> rule is he can\'t participate since he would pick
> the races.
> They also can\'t be races which are discussed in
> the forum, may the best capper win.
> They can be 2 sprints, 2 routes, 2 turfs, 2
> artificial, 2 poly, 1 maiden claimer and 1 maiden
> special weight race.
> When the contest ends, JB can post the results of
> every entrant and we\'ll see if Chuckles IS THE
> BEST CAPPER.  
> You think you\'re the only guy in the room that can
> handicap?  I see plenty of others in here that I
> would hold in high regard as competitors.


Sounds like fun...Let\'s do this!!

[smalltimer]

I am 100% for this.  The only catch is this:  Chuckles MUST participate.

[EJXD2]

What number did you project that she would run in the Derby? Methinks you got that wrong.

EdD

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I didn\'t hint, I said directly that  the filly
> going wrong was predictable and that I had tried
> to do something about it back in March (only time
> I have ever tried to do that with a horse I\'m not
> involved with). I told you not to go there because
> going down that road WOULD bring the connections
> into it, since you had made clear months ago that
> you have some relationship with Porter. I didn\'t
> respond to jbelfior and I\'m STILL trying to leave
> them out of it-- you won\'t leave it alone.

[MonmouthGuy]

He suggested her as a potential \"key\" if you wanted to key one horse instead of spreading it over 6, so I am not sure he got that wrong.

[EJXD2]

Yes, you are right.

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He suggested her as a potential \"key\" if you
> wanted to key one horse instead of spreading it
> over 6, so I am not sure he got that wrong.