Derby Seminar & Eight Belles

[miff]

Jim,

You are speaking like a fan, racing is a business. Regarding the TC being nationally broadcast,you may not be following racing\'s overall continuous demise regardless on the very thin coverage of racing overall.ESPN, a cable channel is now the racing station. It covers High School cheer leading for more hours per annum than it does racing.The guy in charge of this decision sees racing as a bottom level sport with little advertising revenue.

Don\'t know if you\'ve owned horses. He who does not take a substantial profit in the racing business, when it\'s present, usually goes broke. I\'ll exclude the Sheik or someone in that league.It\'s a business which requires enormous capital and an equal amount of luck/good fortune.Paul Pompa stands to cash out for $15million on a $180,000 investment over a one year period. If he don\'t take it he\'s risking a life changing financial windfall and is making a poor business/financial decision.


Mike

[sighthound]

The Breeders Cup going with ESPN2 was a disaster.  Racing needs to be on the national networks for the big days - the spring prep races, the TC, the BC.  

And NBC has proven they can do it well and get the market share.  NBC did a great job, a month ahead, having lots of commercials promoting the show.  

Of course, then the casual fans come back to watch, and disaster happens ...


www.bloodhorse.com

Derby Second Most Viewed in 17 Years
Updated: May 7, 2008

NBC Sports\' coverage of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) May 3 was the most viewed Kentucky Derby in four years (Smarty Jones, 2004) ,and second most viewed in at least 17 years.  The race (5:43-6:39 p.m. ET) averaged 14.2 million viewers, up 3% from 2007 (13.8 million).

NBC\'s Kentucky Derby coverage has averaged three million more viewers (13.4-10.5), a 28% increase since 2001 when NBC began exclusive coverage of the Kentucky Derby, over the eight years prior on ABC.

The network’s race coverage notched an 8.8 national rating and a 21 share, even with last year\'s race that was fueled by the mainstream media coverage of the Queen of England\'s first visit to Churchill Downs.

[basket777]

Wow

Did you ever think it has to do with how the ression has hit us. Many of the people we spoke to have never bet the race before . However from the past payout they did .

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- what you do about it is to expand the time between races of the TC. You know when that will happen? The first time a Derby winner skips the Preakness besause the connections say two weeks is not enough time. Which is going to happen at some point, since they dropped the $5 million bonus.

Or the next time a Derby winner breaks down in the Preakness on national television.

As to what I would do if I advised BB\'s connections-- I would say that if they run in the Preakness they will be placing their horse under a tremendous amount of stress, far more than the usual horse making the usual start, and that would be true even if he didn\'t have a history of soundness issues. From a business point of view, I would do what Miff suggested, and these deals are usually written with kickers, so you can have your cake and eat it too if he wins the TC.

If I owned him myself, I would skip the Preakness to try to get the industry to change. Anyone who thinks that\'s BS doesn\'t know me.

[jimbo66]

Mike,

I have not owned horses and what you say makes sense from a business perspective.  However, don\'t they have insurance for such things?  

You do realize that the kind of behavior you are suggesting will accelerate the already downward moving spiral of this game.  Don\'t you?  Win the derby, retire, move on.  

Fast forward 10-15 years and it will just be the degenerate gamblers left watching and playing this game.

[smalltimer]

TGJB,
I think you are absolutely correct.  
The industry will always be reactive rather than proactive.  As JB says, a high profile animal will have to breakdown to get the attention of those in power.
The industry invites another black eye until a change is made.
As a country, we\'ve become *asterisk conscious anyway.  Hell, does anyone think the numbers produced throughout the 90\'s in baseball are legit?
The days of the grueling TC races may be over because of public perception.
All the professional sports seasons now last months longer than they did even 5-10 years ago.  What difference would it make if there were longer spacing between the TC races?  The purists are gonna say hell no, the casual fan could care less, and the everyday player says whats best for the game?
Changing the spacing between the TC races at least gives the impression the health of the animal(s) are paramount.

[covelj70]

Insurance costs are prohibitive.  Annual insurance premiums for a horse in training are roughly 5% of the insured value.  To ask an owner to put up $3m in premiums (assuming the Derby winner is worth $60m) is probably not realistic.

[jimbo66]

Sorry,

I disagree with Jerry and the rest.  It ALREADY HAPPENED with Barbaro.  That was only two years ago and it didnT do a thing.  What happened with Barbaro had EVEN MORE chance to enact change than a horse simply breaking down and dying after a Derby win.  He broke down, then survived for months, keeping the story alive, gave the mainstream media a chance to call for changes, put pressure on the racing industry, etc.etc.  Even with this \"captive audience\" for months as Barbaro struggled to survive, there was no major push for change, at least not one that I saw.

How many credible, mainstream stories were there during that time that talked about too much development, too big of a new top, greater spacing needed between races, etc.etc.  I remember a couple about the Preakness being pushed back a week or two, but not a lot.

If Barbaro didn\'t do it, then I am not sure what will.

[miff]

Jim,

The cost of insuring a BB is astronomical, there is almost no financial upside after the TC series.Most horses are too brittle today anyway to have long careers so it\'s tough either way. Jim,I\'m playing 40 years since a young teen and saw and followed every great horse esp the east coast ones.The racing game will never be the same as years back. For at least the next 5-10 years racing will mirror the wishes of Sheik Mohammad, at least at the top end of the game.


Mike

[Wrongly]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24457479

\"Accordingly, the ownership group had the horse insured for $32.5 million at Saturday\'s Kentucky Derby. With the impressive win on Saturday, the horse will head to Pimlico for the Preakness as the most insured active horse at $50 million.\"

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- you\'re right, Barbaro breaking down didn\'t do it. But you didn\'t hear the outcry then and the rush to look for reasons we have heard in the last couple of days-- the effect is cumulative, this happens when people don\'t see it as an isolated incident. That\'s why I said the NEXT time.

If you don\'t think major changes will take place if something happens next week, think again.The industry is scared s------s of Federal intervention right now, and even the Kentucky morons realize we have a problem. Of course, they think it\'s just a \"problem of perception\".

[pj]

Bravo TGJB, especially on your last point.

  pat

[covelj70]

wow, probably about $2.5m sticks for the premium there.  And I thought my car insurance was bad.....

[sighthound]

If I owned Big Brown, I\'d bop him over to the local veterinary hospital, do a MRI of limbs, and if nothing lit up to show any indication of any physical problem, I\'d run him in the Preakness and not think twice.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 However, the Triple Crown is one of the
> only times that racing gets a chance to be
> broadcasted to the greater masses and thus
> generate interest.    

Jimbo,

Seabiscuit, a movie nominated for Best Picture was supposed to get people interested in racing. It didn\'t do it.

Horse racing is a niche sport, and will never be on a par with the major sports in our country.  This frustrates those of us who love it, particularly because so many of us also love the major sports.  People watch the TC races because they are famous races, and doing so won\'t necessarily make them racing fans.

How did we fall in love with baseball, football, etc..?? Its usually because someone ( a parent usually) took us to a game. Many people find hockey boring,  but when they attend a game live its a totally different experience. I was a racing fan as a youth, watched Affirmed and Seattle Slew win the TC.  It wasn\'t until a friend took me to the track that I became hooked. Combine the beauty of the sport with the handicapping angle mixed in and I can\'t get enough. \"Casual\" fans won\'t get that by watching a big race on television every so often, nor will watching a race generate sustained interest.

We can talk pageantry all we want, gambling drives this sport. You want to increase interest then teach people how to successfully gamble on racing. Look at those exotic payoffs on Saturday.  Big Brown wins and the tri and super paid in the thousands. This with the favorite winning. The gambling aspect is not emphasized enough. People love to gamble. Lottery, poker, casinos, whatever. Gambling has gone on since the beginning of time.

JB,

I agree with moving back the Preakness and Belmont. Enough with tradition. All of the major sports have made changes that have flown in the face of \"tradition\" and have thrived. Baseball has the designated hitter, multiple divisions, Wild Card entrants. Football has made rule changes to help offenses, goal posts moved to the back of the end zone, 2 pt conversions. Hockey has removed the 2 line pass, reduced goalie movement behind the net, uses a shootout in regular season overtime. Basketball has the 3 pt shot.  Does anyone really believe the last 20 years of baseball is comparable to the previous 100??  Times change.

Until racing removes its collective head from the sand, it will continue to be a joke. Our major sports have shown how having a strong willed, intelligent commissioner can lead a sport to prosperity.  Just ask the NFL how they did with Pete Rozelle at the helm. Racing needs the same, how can we get this done??