Derby Seminar & Eight Belles

[sighthound]

>> Horse racing is a niche sport, and will never be on a par with the majorsports in our country. This frustrates those of us who love it, particularly because so many of us also love the major sports. People watch the TC races because they are famous races, and doing so won\'t necessarily make them racing fans.

How did we fall in love with baseball, football, etc..?? Its usually because someone ( a parent usually) took us to a game.
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It\'s a visual world.  

Horseracing WAS the original national sport.  THE major sport.  Everybody went - rich and poor, gambler and fan.   It was what one did.  

It obviously has what it takes to hold a nation\'s attention, because it did for quite a few decades.

Then television came about - and horseracing decided not to participate, thinking having people watching on television would hurt on-track attendance handle.

The fledgling, unknown small niche sport of professional football jumped on that TV bandwagon and the rest is history.  Same with that small, niche sport of hockey.

Football is 24-7 in the face of two generations growing up.  That made professional football what it was.  

NASCAR saw that - and NASCAR placed itself everywhere, on television, in your face, and now, very quickly, NASCAR is a top sport.

Put it in front of their face, this visual, lazy generation, make a story out of it, and they will sit there and watch it.   Worked for pro football.  Worked for NASCAR.  

See the Derby TV stats from this past weekend.  The fans would like to be there, if they could find us.

If someone had enough money (we\'re talking Shk. Mo money) to physically purchase 2 hours every Saturday afternoon on NBC on the leadup to the Derby, and had one good team following the horses, the trainers, making them real, showing their personalities, taking about those that are in and those that are out, on a dependable, easy to find basis  - you\'d have have the nation once again enthralled by the time the KD was on TV.  

Sure, people who are interested could get that on HRTV, TVG, via the internet (Bloodhorse, DRF, etc) - but that\'s not easy - people have to search that out.

If it were on TV every Saturday, just blaring away (as most households TV\'s do) then even the most illiterate fan could hold their own around the water cooler Monday, discussing who\'s hot on the Derby trail.  

And horses getting hurt - even critically - wouldn\'t be shocking or odd.  It would be put in the proper perspective.

I know nobody in horse racing cares enough to go for this as casual fans are not wanted.  Only new potential gamblers are wanted.  

So the \"fan\" audience is ignored until PETA gets ahold of them first.

TVG, HRTV are not the same as above - they are video in-home gambling terminals, are a premium add on to dish or cable.

[TGJB]

This is a discussion I have been having for years, and recently had again with Waldrop and Chamblin of the NTRA.

There are no fans. And if there are, they are irrelevant.

This industry is driven by gambling. Horseplayers are not fans, they are by far the largest group that participates in the industry.

The mistake the industry has made forever (I made this same speech on Post Time in 1993) is to market racing as a sport, and think the goal is to get people to go to the track or watch on TV. Those are means, not ends. When you market a movie, your job is over when they buy a ticket. In racing your job is just beginning when they arrive, either in person or via TV.

There is a lot more to say about this, and I don\'t have the time. But the market we should be aiming for is the one that plays poker (especially online), day trades, and bets sports. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from the success of poker.

[sighthound]

>> There are no fans. And if there are, they are irrelevant.

Nonsense.  I was a non-gambling fan for years and years.  Now that I have healthy disposable income, the sport benefits more from my attention.  The sport is lucky I stuck around - they sure didn\'t try and keep me.

Unlike the pure gamblers, as a core fan I won\'t leave the sport if a track turns poly, the takeout isn\'t lowered, one of my ADW\'s doesn\'t show a particular track, or a Poker site shoves free signup money at me.

>> This industry is driven by gambling. Horseplayers are not fans, they are by >> far the largest group that participates in the industry.

Absolutely agree.

You, like many, however, make it choice between gambler or fan.  I think it\'s both.  Vegas acknowledges the same thing.

>> The mistake the industry has made forever (I made this same speech on Post >>Time in 1993) is to market racing as a sport, and think the goal is to get >>people to go to the track or watch on TV. Those are means, not ends. When you
>>market a movie, your job is over when they buy a ticket. In racing your job >>is just beginning when they arrive, either in person or via TV.

Exactly.  The ideal is to convert them to gamblers.

But you don\'t want these folks in the door.  So how are you going to convert them to gambling?   You won\'t.  They won\'t be there to convert.

So your only option is to steal your gamblers from other sports.

>> There is a lot more to say about this, and I don\'t have the time. But the >>market we should be aiming for is the one that plays poker (especially >>online), day trades, and bets sports.   There are a lot of lessons to be >>learned from the success of poker.

The young and foolish?  Gimme a break.  Not much financial upside there.   I would think the market would prefer somebody a bit more established, who can drop $10K a month on fun, not $100 a week.

When they are young, they are fans.  Buy them free juleps, tailgate parties at Keeneland, 10-cent supers and bands that play at Hollywood Friday night after the races.

And then after they\'ve bought the house, and sent the kid to college - they will still be fans, if they have been treated reasonably the past 20 years, and will be quite happy to spend their disposable income on their favorite sport.

[SJU5]

I think though that we should prepare for more injuries as time goes on as we\'ve diluted the racing stock and made the species more frail. I don\'t think there is anything we can do to turn this biological/physiological aspects of these injuries around any time soon.

Just like in sports, we have instead of making the athletes we have less injury prone, we\'ve managed to make them more frail with ridiculous things like pitch counts in high school for baseball players, so when they come to pitch in colleges where we play 60 9 inning games, over 9 months, plus daily workouts, they all end up needing Tommy John surgery or having stress bone related elbow problems or shoulder labral tears. Junior high and high school is where you need to stress the bones and ligaments/tendon/muscle groups to repetitive motion to increase stamina and strength. In almost EVERY sport now, injury rates are exploding because we \"pansy\" them at the developmental stage of their lives. And the NCAA LIMITS them to only 20 hours of practice/play a week! I\'ve never seen this epidemic of injuries to college age and pro athletes in my 30 plus years as a trainer/medical director!
We\'ve gone from a 4 man rotation in MLB to hoping a pitcher can thrown once a week. Look at how the stupid Yankees are babying Joba Chamberlain, not letting him start and how they all are on pitch counts. You think Whitey Ford or Don Drysdale or Bob Feller had pitch counts? Now the best we can hope for is 6 innings and maybe 220 innings a year. We\'re lucky to have a college pitcher throw one game a week now (7day rotation)

Physiology is physiology, equine and human...when did the equine set start thinking that less is better? Why don\'t we breeze younger horses for longer distances to work up to the classic distances? Secretariat raced 8 times as a 2yo and many of those races were at 8.5f. Affirmed raced NINE times as a 2yo and ran the San Anita Derby at 9F and the Holleywood Derby at 10F in California prior to Churchill Downs. So in years past, a foundation was layed down. Why is the Derby the 1st time they probably race that far. Why can\'t trainers in Jan or Feb start laying down a foundation of distance works to prepare for KD, Preakness? Especially for the 2YO\'s that maybe show classic form (Champagne Stakes winners). And if they say there isn\'t time, then why race without the foundation? Why tell any athlete to do something they\'ve never attempted before in their lives at the highest level of competition? What results can we expect besides injuries? But we do in horse racing. Yes, I understand that the triple crown is the test of champions...but the breed has changed. But we\'re not flexible because of tradition. Of the 12 horses I\'ve been a part owner of, I had two Grade 1 stakes placed horses as 2yo\'s...and I\'d asked my trainers what we were planning on doing to lay the foundation in the off season for their 3 yo season, only to get the \"look\". What do you think happened to each? One death and one with career long injuries. Bad luck? No bad planning and conditioning drills IMO. I agree with the vet Dr Bramledge who At The Races Radio had on todays show, stress them more at an earlier age to reduce injuries...not baby them!

If the breed is in effect weaker and more frail, then what can we do to reduce the injuries and bad press? Continue to ignore this frailty and race them in the same traditional time period of yesteryear KD, Preakness and Belmont? or do we admit the species is frail and we\'re past the point of no return and change the dates to May-June July? or discuss some other possible changes?
__________________

[P-Dub]

sighthound Wrote:
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 The young and foolish?  Gimme a break.  Not much
> financial upside there.   I would think the market
> would prefer somebody a bit more established, who
> can drop $10K a month on fun, not $100 a week.

Cmon Sight, how many horseplayers drop 10K a month?? And whats wrong with $100 a week??  I work in the poker industry. We have tables of all levels. Couple things...those people playing 3/6 contribute the same as the 20/40 players. There is also a lot more of them.  Also, these 3/6 players graduate to 6/12 and 20/40.  They have to start somewhere. You think the $10k a month players didn\'t start small??  
>
> When they are young, they are fans.  Buy them free
> juleps, tailgate parties at Keeneland, 10-cent
> supers and bands that play at Hollywood Friday
> night after the races.
>
> And then after they\'ve bought the house, and sent
> the kid to college - they will still be fans, if
> they have been treated reasonably the past 20
> years, and will be quite happy to spend their
> disposable income on their favorite sport.

Again Sight, do you think all players have to own a house and be able to afford to send kids to college?? When you look at everyday horseplayers,  do you see affluent people?? Of course some of them are, but the vast majority are everyday people. Walk into a poker room, you will see the same type of people.  You don\'t have to be affluent to play poker or wager on the horses. You need the belief that you are better than the other guy and a few bucks in your pocket. I see many of the same players 5 times a week, they are regulars. They don\'t need free stuff,or anything like that.

Education is the key. Televised poker has educated people on how to play. Now, the level of competence will vary for everybody.  But people don\'t walk into a poker room unless they know how to play, why would a racetrack be any different??

[miff]

Stallion Deal Near On Big Brown

The owners of Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Big Brown are close to concluding a deal to sell the future breeding rights in the son of Boundary, including an offer from \"one of the most widely recognized stud farms in the world,\" according to IEAH co-president Michael Iavarone.

Big Brown is owned by International Equine Acquisitions Holdings Stables, of which Iavarone and Richard Schiavo are co-presidents and co-CEOs, and Paul Pompa Jr. Other IEAH partners in Big Brown are Andrew Cohen and Gary Tolchin.

“We have some offers we are seriously considering,” Iavarone said May 7 of the bidding for the breeding rights to the undefeated colt who won the May 3 Derby as the favorite. He said a decision would be made soon.

[TGJB]

As a \"Fan\", you had absolutely no impact on the industry, and if takeout levels are not an issue with you, you may still not. Alan Gutterman once said that 2% of the bettors bet 60% of the money.

All the marketing efforts that have been aimed at \"fans\" have left this industry where it is. All poker\'s efforts to recruit gamblers have resulted in explosive growth.

 \"Steal\" was nicely perjorative. I don\'t care whether they are already playing those games or are just the kind of people that would eventually-- the profile of those interested in those games is the same as those we want here.

If you cast a wide net only a small percentage will become gamblers. If you focus on finding, attracting  and educating the real potential players, there is a chance to make headway. For that to happen, the entire thinking by those in the industry that those who bet are \"fans\" has to change.

[TreadHead]

As an avid poker player, I can say I think you are going to have a lot more trouble converting people to racing than you are poker.  Racing has too many variables, bets, and other intimidating information that will \"scare off\" the lazy average joe.  

With poker, you can sit down and play, and maybe get lucky right off that bat and have a good day.  Even if you don\'t, once your interest has been captured, it is far easier to grab a couple poker books or online training sites and greatly improve  your knowledge and game than it is with racing.

But the parallels between the two are definitely there.  They both don\'t care how you do as a player, they just want your action.  Over and over again.  The more you re-bet that 1k you have, the more takeout they get.  The major difference poker has in it\'s favor is the lower takeout.  Most places, the max is 5% and is capped so it rarely even approaches that.  This keeps the players playing longer with their own money, and more likely to hit a big win that will get them more hooked.

For the intellectual, poker\'s math is finite and defined.  You know exactly what you\'re dealing with at all times.  The vast majority of educated gamblers are far going to prefer that to the many unknowns in horseracing.  Smooth Air is a perfect example, had you just looked at him on paper and not had the inside information of the sickness, he may have looked very betable.  I think they are fighting an uphill battle, but enough people still seem to get roped in to keep the industry moving.

[miff]

Check this out,the biggest joke is the political appointments by former Gov.Elliot Spitzer when he wasn\'t banging some hooker. One appointee, politically upstate connected Jack Knowlton(Funny Cide Owner) can\'t spell racing but will have a voice in determining the outcome. BRILLIANT!!



\"The Task Force on Retired Racehorses, a state-appointed committee, has planned a summit in Saratoga Springss, N.Y., July 29 to explore the potential for the installation of synthetic surfaces at the state\'s racetracks.

John Lee, a spokesman for the New York Racing Association, said there are no immediate plans to take such action, but NYRA is “looking carefully at synthetic tracks.”

“Obviously, anybody in racing is studying the use of synthetic tracks around the country, and their success and problems, to a degree,” Lee said May 7. “If we moved in that direction, a logical place to start would be Belmont’s training track.”

In reference to a May 7 Associated Press story that indicated NYRA is considering making a move to synthetic tracks, Lee said: “(AP) got way, way ahead of the story. There is no plan like that now.”

For the cash-constrained NYRA, which is looking to emerge from bankruptcy and get its video lottery terminal operation up and running at Aqueduct, any immediate action to install synthetic surfaces is moot at this point. Lee said he estimates the cost to install a synthetic surface at one of NYRA’s tracks would be “a ballpark figure of $10 million.”

The Task Force on Retired Racehorses held its first meeting in March. Its 13 members were appointed by former Gov. Eliot Spitzer and legislative leaders.

One of the members is Jack Knowlton, co-owner of 2003 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Funny Cide. A main objective of the task force is to explore the possibilities of second careers for racehorses when they are retired, and to develop ideas to fund the cost of providing for those horses. Spitzer also asked the panel to research synthetic surfaces.

A phone call to Knowlton was not immediately returned\"

[sighthound]

Jerry, I agree with all you say regarding the importance of gamblers to the sport.   They should be treated, especially that 2%, as royalty.  Comped and pampered.  I\'ll bet many tracks don\'t even know who their best on-site clients are.
 
Gamblers are your clientele - obviously they are first on your radar screen, and the more the merrier for you.  The young poker players, with a product of TG\'s quality, could probably readily make a transition and be successful enough to become hooked.

But I\'m really sick of being told I\'m not worth crap to the sport on days I\'m not gambling.

Treat the gamblers like gamblers, and the fans like fans.  It\'s not either-or. Vegas knows and recognizes that.  There is room for both, and like me, many even cross ranks.

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

Actually, I think there\'s more of a delicate balance between sport and gambling in horse racing than you acknowledge.  Certainly, I like to think of horseplayers as sporting men willing to back sporting opinions; investors rather than gamblers.


The ideal horseplayer, to me, a person who loves puzzles, who loves the handicapping puzzle so much that he learns everything he can about horses so he can solve the puzzle. The educated consumer becomes the best customer, keeping the traditions of the game alive. But that\'s old school, learning how to handicap horses. We live in an age of deconstruction. Now the emphasis seems to be in learning how to handicap betting pools.  With the consequence being that horse racing. which as a win, place, show game was a game as exacting as hardball, has morphed into a game of slow-pitch softball.   And when we throw in simulcasting maybe one of those games of softball played in a city park where players from two different diamonds share the same outfield.

Now, I have nothing against softball, was a much better softball player than I ever was a baseballer.  But, of the two, it\'s only baseball I revere.

Well, there are people that revere horse racing, revere the horses.  And there are others who just want the action.  And maybe the ones who just want the action are paying the bills these days, but that\'s another pact with the devil. (And I should say here I don\'t think being a heavy hitter and revering horses and the traditions of racing are mutually exclusive.  What I\'m saying is that catering to the heavy hitters who don\'t love the traditions or the horses will eventually kill racing.)

And if only for this reason.  The moment that horse racing is perceived as only a game for gamblers, the animal rights issues become untenable.  You can\'t justify the horrors some of these horses suffer because they provide gambling action for people any more than you can justify dog or cock fights. Racing has always been a bit more sporting than that.  And again, I don\'t think in an illusionary way either.  I think the love between the bettor and the animal, the connection between the love of the breed and the wager made horse racing a uniquely humanized and honorable pursuit.  When it becomes just about the money, it\'s no longer justifiable. When the conversation goes from \"I love that number two races back and how that workout three days ago is going to enhance the speed which the blinkers on today indicate the horse is going to show,\" becomes, \"I\'ll like the 2,6,8 with the 4,3,2 over and under the 1,9, that\'s what the got keno rooms for; you don\'t have to risk animal lives for this type of action. You don\'t have to risk horses lives for under/over bets.  You don\'t have to risk horses lives to sustain a game of parimutuel bingo or to enable some guys off-shore to run some impersonal computer program designed to arbitrage distortions in the betting pools.  No, the only justification for subjecting horses to what they\'re subjected to is because the race course allows people to fall in love with horses to the point where they want to celebrate them.  And bet their bank roll on their opinion of them.

As I said, a delicate balance, indeed, between sport and gambling.

[TGJB]

Hoarse-- interesting and well written post.

Sight-- I certainly do not think the industry should treat you or anyone like crap, no matter how much or little they bet. And I agree with most of what you say. My point was that strictly from a business point of view (which is what marketing is about), racing needs to completely change its understanding of its own business and customers. Hoarse did a good job describing the mindset of horseplayers with his \"solving the puzzle\" comment (I wrote a screenplay about racing where I used almost those exact words). The people who run this game (which to far too great a degree is the Kentucky breeders, which I said to the WSJ guy, who left it and lots more out) need to wake up.

[sighthound]

>>  My point was that strictly from a business point of view (which is what marketing is about), racing needs to completely change its understanding of its own business and customers.


We just spent three days with PETA controlling the national image of racing.  

Racing doesn\'t even know who it\'s industry spokesmen or leaders are.

Help.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Firstly,

You legalize ALL medications EPO, Bloodpacking, Steroids, Tubing, Hot sauce on their gonads, Electronic Buzzers, Whips with hooks on them and threaten horses that run weakly with the fact that unless they run hard their Peppermints will be cut off. you level the playing field for all concerned and if a trainer won\'t treat his horse and wants to be a namby pamby and run clean....screw him.

Secondly, You space the triple crown. You run the Derby on the fourth Saturday of June, the Preakness on the second Sunday of September, and the Belmont on the third Friday of March in their 4YO year. With this format you let them both mature and recover from the effects of drug induced Negative Twelves.

Lastly, you decrease the ridiculous distances we are asking them to run with fragile breeding and drug jump ups. You can\'t ask a horse to run 12 poles that is high on meth. That horse could have a grabber anywhere after the mile marker. So you shorten the distances. The Derby becomes a six furlong race. The preakness 5.5 furlongs and the Belmont 7 whole poles.

Sell it



jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Jerry,
>
> I hear you, but my point is what do you want to do
> about it?  Did you want Barbaro held out of the
> Preakness?  The connections got criticized at that
> time for running on 5 weeks rest before the derby,
> something which no horse had been able to win
> previously with (tradition said 3 or 4 weeks rest
> was the maximum).  So, the connections did the
> right thing before the Derby, the horse ran his
> race in the Derby and won.  The Preakness is 2
> weeks later.  You don\'t really think that the
> industry is going to become so conscious of
> spacing that Derby winners are going to skip the
> Preakness and point to the Belmont?
>
> Moving forward to today\'s situation, what would
> you do with Big Brown.  Let\'s assume he is running
> these figures non-aided with one of the trainers
> that you work with.  Are you advising the trainer
> and owner to skip the Preakness?  Retire the
> horse?  Point to the Belmont?  Or are you running
> in the Preakness and just hoping he doesn\'t get
> hurt?

[fkach]

>I disagree with Jerry and the rest. It ALREADY HAPPENED with Barbaro. That was only two years ago and it didnT do a thing. What happened with Barbaro had EVEN MORE chance to enact change than a horse simply breaking down and dying after a Derby win. He broke down, then survived for months, keeping the story alive, gave the mainstream media a chance to call for changes, put pressure on the racing industry, etc.etc. Even with this \"captive audience\" for months as Barbaro struggled to survive, there was no major push for change, at least not one that I saw. <

This is a country where people have been calling for a ban on boxing for decades, but right now millions are embracing MMA. Anyone that watches  MMA understands my point. As terrible as this death was, it will be forgiven if racing provides entertaining races among the best equine athletes and a game that is competitive against other forms of gambling.