Triple Crown Odds

[jimbo66]

One of my offshore accounts has odds up on Big Brown winning the Triple Crown.  With the caveat that action only happens if Big Brown races in the Preakness, the \"no\" is -130 and the \"yes\" is even money.

That is by far the shortest any horse has been in the last 10 years.  Smarty was 3-1 to win the Triple Crown after his Derby Victory.  Barbaro was 5-2.  Silver Charm and Real Quiet were 5-1ish.  Giacomo was real long.

Even Money to win the Triple Crown.

Be interested to hear Jerry\'s views on Big Brown post-Derby.  Calling him only 50/50 to RUN in the Derby and War Pass having AT LEAST as good a shot as winning as Big Brown were pre-derby calls.  (not rubbing that in, as I was in the same boat, I believe I called BB 20% to win in a post BEFORE your seminar and you had the same percentage in the seminar, so I was just as bearish).

But I am struggling with how to adjust my thinking now.  My initial reaction is that betting the rest of this Triple Crown is useless.  He will be 1-9 in the Preakness against a small field and then maybe 1-5 against a slightly bigger and better field in the Belmont (with at least a couple derby starters).

But the gambler in me says that NOW is exactly the time to bet against him.  Dutrow had his 5 weeks to prepare the horse and he was ready to run.  He likely ran ANOTHER new top, JB says likely the fastest DERby ever, and now he has to run back in 2 weeks.  

The problem is that I don\'t know all the new shooters, but you want to at least find a horse that can run a \"0\", if you want to beat him, and there may not be one.

[Lost Cause]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> One of my offshore accounts has odds up on Big
> Brown winning the Triple Crown.  With the caveat
> that action only happens if Big Brown races in the
> Preakness, the \"no\" is -130 and the \"yes\" is even
> money.
>
> That is by far the shortest any horse has been in
> the last 10 years.  Smarty was 3-1 to win the
> Triple Crown after his Derby Victory.  Barbaro was
> 5-2.  Silver Charm and Real Quiet were 5-1ish.
> Giacomo was real long.
>
> Even Money to win the Triple Crown.
>
> Be interested to hear Jerry\'s views on Big Brown
> post-Derby.  Calling him only 50/50 to RUN in the
> Derby and War Pass having AT LEAST as good a shot
> as winning as Big Brown were pre-derby calls.
> (not rubbing that in, as I was in the same boat, I
> believe I called BB 20% to win in a post BEFORE
> your seminar and you had the same percentage in
> the seminar, so I was just as bearish).
>
> But I am struggling with how to adjust my thinking
> now.  My initial reaction is that betting the rest
> of this Triple Crown is useless.  He will be 1-9
> in the Preakness against a small field and then
> maybe 1-5 against a slightly bigger and better
> field in the Belmont (with at least a couple derby
> starters).
>
> But the gambler in me says that NOW is exactly the
> time to bet against him.  Dutrow had his 5 weeks
> to prepare the horse and he was ready to run.  He
> likely ran ANOTHER new top, JB says likely the
> fastest DERby ever, and now he has to run back in
> 2 weeks.  
>
> The problem is that I don\'t know all the new
> shooters, but you want to at least find a horse
> that can run a \"0\", if you want to beat him, and
> there may not be one.


I\'m having the same struggles...But after looking at the probable field..I think i\'ll have to wait for the Belmont to try to beat him...Shorter distance, horrible field, no post position issues to worry about...I doubt they can beat him in Maryland.  Even with a major bounce he could probably lay over those horses...Speaking of which...What was his number a negative 8?

[Michael D.]

I think you have to wait and see what the Preakness field looks like.

if BB is allowed to jog and win this thing, he\'s looking pretty good to take it all.

the sport rarely gives away triple crown races though. if two or three fast ones enter the Preakness, BB is a bit vulnerable. if he\'s forced to run a huge race to win it, he probably needs to be bet against in the Belmont.

too early though Jim, at least for me. let\'s see who enters, and let\'s see how the Peter Pan goes on Sat.

[big18741]

Harlem Rocker will suck up tons of exotic money in the Preakness if he goes.

Pletcher/Stronach 106 Beyer in the Withers.Guessing his TG # came back good also.

Better chance he\'s off the board than BB getting beat IMO.I see one turn closing sprinter that tried to take a left hand turn in deep stretch at Aqueduct.Gotta beat him underneath to get anything out of the race.

Kentucky Bear the key.

Maybe look at beating BB in the Belmont.

[Michael D.]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Harlem Rocker will suck up tons of exotic money in
> the Preakness if he goes.
>
> Pletcher/Stronach 106 Beyer in the
> Withers.Guessing his TG # came back good also.
>
> Better chance he\'s off the board than BB getting
> beat IMO.I see one turn closing sprinter that
> tried to take a left hand turn in deep stretch at
> Aqueduct.Gotta beat him underneath to get anything
> out of the race.


although, the horse\'s history is eerie ..... a 7f race at GP, a 1M race at GP, a big win in the Withers in a 4 horse field, then a match-up against a huge favorite with ouchy ankles in the Preakness .....  heard that story before?

[jimbo66]

Does sound familiar, probably moreso to you Michael, as you made a huge score as I remember, on Bernardini!!

Not sure that Harlem Rocker has the same classic pedigree for distance races as Bernardini did and also see if Harlem Rocker got a decent fig for his Withers, as Bernardini did.

[miff]

Mike D,

He\'s already the Preakness wiseguy horse and the TAP barn feel he will be the best 3 yr old in the barn by fall.Saw him run twice,green, could be any kind and is probably already faster than 15 of the derby entrants.


Mike

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- my over and under on the number of starts stands. Draw your own conclusions.

Hard to see how saying the winner was the most likely winner makes either of us bearish. My play within the race was not about his chances of winning, but of running out, as was yours.

My doubles play and idiotic failure to realize how easy (and cheap) it would have been to cover myself is another story.

[Wrongly]

I was speaking with one of the partners of Harlem Rocker on Wen. night at the derby post draw, they were very much considering running Harlem Rocker in the Preakness.  They were also considering the Queen\'s plate in Canada.  Now that may or may not have changed with Big Brown\'s win but he also made the comparison with Berandini.  I loved Bernardini need to seem some figs before we get too far in front of oursleves.

[big18741]

Harlem Rocker is plenty fast,but is he bred for a Classic distance?

Macho Uno over a Lit De Justice mare?

The sire only has one stakes winning router-Wicked Style @ 1 1/16th and he may have been helped by Trempolino on the bottom.

Maybe green,but it looked like he crossed over a few paths in deep stretch toward the rail at Aqueduct.Didn\'t see the gallop out.

[MonmouthGuy]

The problem with the Preakness this year as compared to 2006 is that in 2006 SNS and Brother Derek took a lot of money in the Preakness, which created value with Bernadini, despite the fact that BDs Derby number and trip made him a huge candidate to bounce.  This will look like a Grade 3 field so any value you might have hoped to get if you like Harlem Rocker won\'t exist.

[twoshoes]

Looked more like green to me than out of stress or fatigue. He looked like he pulled himself up and switched back to his left lead after he left J Be K.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8kYft1wY3ls

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does sound familiar, probably moreso to you
> Michael, as you made a huge score as I remember,
> on Bernardini!!
>
> Not sure that Harlem Rocker has the same classic
> pedigree for distance races as Bernardini did and
> also see if Harlem Rocker got a decent fig for his
> Withers, as Bernardini did.


surely not the genes of Bernardini. bottom tilted a bit towards speed:


http://obssales.com/adecatalog/2007/39.PDF

[miff]

Big,

HR was held very late in the Withers. He only beat 3 horses and the 3-5 favorite he beat was distance challenged and off a short rest speed bias win.

There is buzz about this horses potential and what you say about his breeding is true. Never been two turns either.Did not see the TG fig for his last but was surely a top and a neg fig if Jerry agreed with Beyer.

More so than the Derby though,the Preakness is all a matter of BB\'s soundness and resiliency.Like the derby,the Preakness is BB\'s race to lose, since none of these can come close to outrunning him at this stage.

Mike

[SoCalMan2]

Although I loved Big Brown to win the Derby, there is no way he wins the triple crown. Will need to see his sheet before making a final determination, but if he paired up or improved in the Derby and is then coming back on short rest, there is no way he does not react badly.  What\'s more, if he somehow wins the Preakness and makes it into the starting gate for the Belmont, it is not going to take very much to beat him in the Belmont. There are plenty of Birdstones out there this year.