TG vs. Traditional Handicapping-CRC R 10

[drbillym]

I usually just pay for the TG selections as I don\'t have the time or ability yet to decipher the TG numbers.  But as I have an interest in one of the horses in today\'s 10th race at Calder, I decided to look at the sheets and see how that would affect my predicted outcome.  Using traditional(Brisnet/Beyer numbers) handicapping, it looked to me like the 1 and 2 were the horses to beat.  Looking at the TG charts brought other points to light, and I have some questions for y\'all:
1)Are there any particular guidelines in predicting how many points a 2yo will drop when it begins racing as a 3yo.
2)Any guidelines on switching from turf to dirt
3) Are TG numbers, or any other approach, less significant in maiden events or races with fewer past performances

I am not familiar with cycle patterns using TG#\'s, but is it correct to say that Powdered Sugar may bounce-or is she a candidate to pair up(I have seen this terms when I buy the selections).  How do you know which is more likely?
Is Stephaningrid likely to improve on 3rd start and having good works?

My final question:  Who do you like?!  I\'ll be boxing 2-3 and backing the 3 to win.

[TGJB]

Briefly--

1-- Pedigree has a lot to do with it. Look at the sire and sibling profiles to see how much development could be expected, but keep in mind those take you through the END of the 3yo year. Also, if you\'re talking about first start off a layoff, look at the trained layoff stats.

Pattern and number of races as a 2yo matter too, but that\'s a longer discusion than I have time for.

2-- No firm guidelines for first time on a surface, but I rely heavily on the pedigree and trainer stats.

3-- The less figures you have to work with, the more random factors come in.