Preakness - Where are the opportunists?

[jimbo66]

Boy,

I am surprised to read the posts on this board.  Experienced thorograph folks like Miff (and others), not willing to take a shot against Big Brown in the Preakness.  BTW Miff, check your figures on Dutrow on short rest.  I actually think betting AGAINST him in these situations has been one of my favorite plays the last few years, as his reputation about winning off short rest far exceeds his ability to get his horses to run their figures off short rest.  Next time he has an entry with 0-11 days run, check his thoropattern.  Just as bad as everybody else.  He is better in the 12-29, but still not great.  You were right BEFORE the derby, when you said Dutrow would be tough to beat with 5 weeks rest into the race.  You are wrong now when you say short rest is his best.

Anyway, back to the Preakness.  I realize I was wrong about this horse when I suggested betting against him in the Derby off the negative 3 in the Florida Derby.  However, the fact that the horse ran a negative 4.5 in the Derby and now comes back in two weeks in the Preakness makes him MORE of a bet against, not less.  We are talking about a horse who has had huge spacing between races into the Derby, mostly because of his feet, but nonetheless he has not been asked to run back off short rest.  Now he has run the fastest derby in history, at least on Thorgraph and Ragozin (not Beyers) and he has to come back in 2 weeks.  Look at how many horses have run negative 4.5 or better and how they did in their next race.  I remember Ghostzapper pairing up his negative 6, but he was a 4 or 5 year old, not a spring 3 year old.  I think Commentator might have paired up once also, but again an older horse.  Of course, even as older horses, neither Ghostzapper or Commentator had to run back in two weeks.  Big Brown does.  Also, I am taking a different view on Dutrow\'s handling of Big Brown in the last week than Miff.  Miff seems to be encouraged by the fact that Dutrow won\'t even gallop the horse, but is strictly walking/jogging him.  I think that shows Dutrow is concerned about the horse running back on short rest.  And he is certainly WRONG that Big Brown can bounce 6 points and win.  If Big Brown runs a 1.5, he isn\'t winning.  Another horse will run a \"0\" and Big Brown is likely to get another wide/conservative ride by Desormeaux.  

Taking a broader look at the next two races, I would make it 50% that Big Brown runs OFF THE BOARD in either the Preakness or Belmont, assuming he runs in both.  At the odds he will be, I only have to be right in one of those races to make a huge score.  I know many handicappers I have talked to are going to wait for the Belmont and hand him the Preakness, but I think that is a mistake.  He could bounce to the moon in the Preakness and if that happens, there will be no opportunity to bet against him in the Belmont.  My view would be to take a reasonable sized bet against him in the Preakness and double it up in the Belmont, if he wins the Preakness, perhaps tripling it, if he is forced to run a negative 3 or so to win the Preakness.

If he is out of the super in either race, there is a ton of money to be made.  Forget about looking for somebody to put underneath him in the Preakness, so you can get an $18 exacta instead of 1-5 on the win bet.  Swing for the fences.   He pays no better than $2.60 on top in the Preakness, despite the size of the field.

Anybody offering 5-2 on a matchup bet between Big Brown and Casino Drive in the Belmont?  I would take it right now, with the caveat that if one doesn\'t run in the Belmont, the bet still stands.  

Jerry, I know you don\'t want to give away the analysis for the Preakness, but are you ready to concede the Preakness to Big Brown?  Am I way off base thinking that these next two races could be fantastic betting opportunities?

[ajkreider]

I\'m not sure it\'s right to say the horse needs big breaks between races - it only looks that way because of the prior (and apparently solved) feet issues.  He ran back in the Florida Derby 24 days after his GP allowance race, and it certainly didn\'t affect his performance.  

Dutrow wants to gallop the horse, but hadn\'t so far because of track conditions.

Agree about the betting angle, though.

[big18741]

If you bet against him in the Derby at 2/1 it\'d be difficult to be on him at 2/5 in the Preakness.You either pass the race or look for him to X on percentages.That\'s a wagering thing.What\'d the old guys used to say? If you weren\'t there for the wedding you don\'t want to be there for the funeral.

If you cashed him,going back to the exotics well on Saturday is at least an option.I\'m not concerned about the two weeks or lack of training.Dutrow for the first time had that horse 100% fit going into the Derby and it showed in the lane where he ran straight as an arrow.He could X,but I see an off maybe into the -2 range at worst.Think he\'s just a freak going up against a bunch of plodders and distance challenged horses in Baltimore.

Gayego,Behindatthebar and Hey Byrn(wide horse) all have one fast # on their resume.None of them have to run back to it.Maybe the exotic fillers come from slower horses that get inside trips or else move up a couple of points.Need the post draw and #\'s to construct a play.

[covelj70]

I agree with everything you write here except the fact that it\'s obvious that another horse in the field can run a \"0\"

Hey Byrn is the one with some kind of shot to get back to a 0 or better which is why I suggested on the board yesterday that he was worth some kind of play but he\'s maybe 25% to get back to his top (based on the fact that he hasn\'t paired that big number in 3 subsequent starts)

I believe that Gayego and Macho Again are the only others in the field with 0\'s or better and its highly unlikely that either of them is going to run back to a top both because of the short rest for both of them and the fact that they are both more milers than true classic distance horses by pedigree.

I want to go against Big Brown more than anyone but I think we have a much better shot in the Belmont.

Vegas is offering -185 to go against a Big Brown triple crown.  That may be a way to try and do what we are both suggesting (some small chance he loses this weekend but I real chance that he loses the Belmont).

[fkach]

Jimbo,

>Taking a broader look at the next two races, I would make it 50% that Big Brown runs OFF THE BOARD in either the Preakness or Belmont, assuming he runs in both.<

If that\'s what you think, you must also think his chances of winning the Triple Crown are way less than 50% because he might not finish off the board in either race but still lose.  

He was about even money to win the Triple Crown in prop betting the last time I looked.

[covelj70]

Vegas now offering -185 after Casino Drive\'s win on Sat.

[MO]

If BB does not win the Preakness, he will not run in the Belmont.

[miff]

Jim,

There is a glaring hole in your approach. On the chance that BB does not run well and loses (even though he\'s app 7- 10 lengths faster than all of them),you still have to pick the winner.The alternatives are a bunch of common horses you could put in a hat and pick one, like a lottery.I don\'t gamble that way.

Re Dutrow on short rest, you must FILTER his short rest runners,those results defy logic and no trainer comes close. The Thoropattern is irrelevant Jim(surprised at you) as BB does  not have to come close to his best/normal figs to beat this group. He only loses if he x\'s by my calculations.Incidentally, without getting into it, BB ran HARDER in the Florida Derby than he did in the Ken Derby(racing stuff that has little to do with performance figures)

Gambling that a horse won\'t run his best is one thing, but picking from the group remaining is another.If there was a viable alternative I\'d agree with your approach but the rest are just stabs imo.


Mike

[Lost Cause]

miff Wrote:
>
> Gambling that a horse won\'t run his best is one
> thing, but picking from the group remaining is
> another.If there was a viable alternative I\'d
> agree with your approach but the rest are just
> stabs imo.
>
>
> Mike

This is my big problem with the Preakness also..I would love to play against Big Brown but the question is if you don\'t play Big Brown who are you going to play?
These other horses at this distance are average at best..and I really believe that if BB bounces he is still better than these..I will play one backup Pick 4 with all of the others, but i\'ll key all of my main bets on Big Brown to win the Preakness and then lay it all on him to get beat in the stakes..Sometimes you just have to say the favorite looks too good, make him your A horse and move on to the next race..

[marcus]

i was just wondering myself that even if there\'s somebody in there at the zero range who looks the best in 20 years to run a new top , it might be asking too much imo to get the kind of efforts out of the horses that will be needed . I personally never try to guess exactly what number a horse will run , specially with new tops . i do try to guesstimate the \"range\" of the move .  even  if bb \"x\"\'s and still runs \"in\" we probably don\'t see big value .

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

I will not try to beat BB in the Preakness. As has been well documented, BB can
bounce fairly significantly and beat this field, a field which you yourself
accurately characterized as \"second tier\" 3YOs. And now the only colt Dutrow
seemed to fear, Harlem Rocker, will apparently not be entered.

I will watch the Preakness closely, paying particular attention to BB\'s gallop
out. He galloped out very strongly in both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies.

Some \"pattern engineering\" going on here, as Dutrow will try to estimate what
level of effort will be necessary to prevail in the Preakness, and then bring
BB back to a peak effort 3 weeks later.

I can wait 5 weeks, because I think that, assuming some of the better 3YOs
reappear in the Belmont Stakes, an ambush of BB is conceivable. And I will take
it a step further and throw both BB AND Casino Drive out of the top spot if they
both run at Belmont.

Casino Drive is an intriguing story. From a breeding point of view, I have
already discussed how his young sire Mineshaft has a pedigree loaded with
classic race success; Casino Drive\'s dam needs no introduction, BUT:

1) Has there ever been a colt as lightly raced as CD (2 LT starts) who has had
success in the Belmont Stakes?

2) Casino Drive IMO could conceivably be a 5/2 second favorite, offering no
value in my estimation, and I understand where if you could get 8/5 in a head
to head with BB (and not have to win the race) this would be your bet.

3) Jimbo your analysis of a race is always predicated on analysis of TG numbers
and patterns. But even The Guru Jerry Brown, in a recent response to a question
about a race at Calder, made the point that \"the more numbers the better\". In
this particular case I would hope that TGJB does not mind me paraphrasing him:
You can not make a pattern (there is less TG# predictability)from a 2 race
sample.

I guess my question is Jimbo, do you think CD can win the Belmont. or is your
real bet/intention the head to head action with BB? If it is the former, I am a
bit surprised, because we both tossed BB out of the Derby partially based on
our (incorrect)perception of his lack of foundation. Now you are seriously
considering an even more lightly raced animal for the Belmont?

Good luck Saturday. If BB wins, pay special attention to his gallop out.

I am selfishly hoping for a BB Preakness win. I think Racing and NY Racing in
particular needs the infusion of cash and emotion which would result from
having a Triple Crown contender. If this scenario comes about I can start
looking for this year\'s Birdstone.

[miff]

Hey Byrn was mentioned. Check out the replay of his last race,the Holy Bull, and tell me you can bet serious money on that horse.


Mike

[tmon]

Talking about light foundations in England a few years ago Lammtarra won their English Derby after only running and winning one race as a two year old. He went on to win two more races that year King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and retired unbeaten. Of course that was on turf.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

I will certainly post my actual handicapping of the Preakness once I see the sheets this Thursday.  Until then, I can only say that I am going to play Big Brown to bounce off the negative 4.5.  Those that stated that no other horse excites them, certainly have a point.  But it may just be that I box 4 to 6 horses in Tris and Supers, throwing Big Brown out, in which case I don\'t need to key a single horse to make money.  We\'ll see once the sheets are out.  

As for your comment on Casino Drive, I will bet him to win.  However, 5-2 is not going to be his price, at least not if Big Brown wins the Preakness.  5-1 second choice will be more like it and at that price, I will certainly \"bite\".  Richiebee, my bet against Big Brown in the Derby was based on the bounce off the negative 3.5 and having to negotiate post 20 in a crowded field and also his relative lack of foundation.  Not just his light experience.  And I can accept lack of experience taking 5-1 in a likely 8 or 9 horse field with only a couple of the 8 or 9 being fast enough to win, much more than I accept lack of experience in a 20 horse field at 2-1.  

I am hoping Miff\'s guesstimate of a \"1\" for Casino Drive is right.  I will very gladly bet that he improves off that race going 1 1/2 miles with his pedigree, especially considering he had one published work before the Peter Pan and was coming off a February layoff where BEFORE the race his connections expressed their concern over his readiness for this race.  Yes, I know he has no \"pattern\" off the 2 races.  However, I am willing to bet he runs better than he did in the Peter Pan, potentially much better.  Gimme all I can get at 5-1.......

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I agree completely with your original post on this string. Interestingly enough I had the identical conversation with someone about passing the Preakness and waiting to get him in the Belmont-- two years ago, about Barbaro. I made a couple of big head to head bets and booked all of Barbaro I could get with a certain British outfit. My position was exactly yours-- if I don\'t get him here, I\'ll get him in the Belmont. This year, that position started before the Derby.

I did a couple of extensive interviews the last couple of days, we\'ll see what happens with them. The one with Kerrison, specifically on the Preakness, promises to be a barn-burner-- the Post has the same view of nuance that George Bush does, and I gave him something to work with.