Preakness - Where are the opportunists?

[covelj70]

JB, other than the Vegas prop bet of -185 for BB not to win the TC, how do you suggest inmplementing that view?

[TGJB]

Jim-- That\'s what my Preakness comments with the sheets are for.

I will say this if you are playing BB to collapse-- all the others are not the same.

[miff]

\"I will say this if you are playing BB to collapse-- all the others are not the same\"


JB,

In the sense that they are all common they are the same, and we are using the same data. A couple with one good fig or a live pattern here or there.


Mike

[TGJB]

My point is, if you decide to throw BB out, you have to handicap the race just like he wasn\'t in it. As George Orwell might say, they may all be common, but some are more common than others.

And anyway, I don\'t agree they are all \"common\".

[jimbo66]

Mike,

CAn we change your moniker from \"Miff\" to \"the school teacher\", you are so enamored lately with chalk!!

Everybody but Big Brown is a slow rat.  

Come on, if you are playing for a collapse and getting 20-1 on horses, I will take one solid figure with a live pattern. Let\'s see the sheets on Thursday.

[miff]

Jim,

I\'m a realist that doesn\'t drink the KOOL AID.Suckers that know little consistently pick a fight with the 800 pound gorillas of racing,I look to beat up on the Sisters Of The Poor when gambling.

Every sucker I know has this bravado \"I toss the chalk all the time\" until they go broke and need to borrow money.Sound familiar? they call themselves \"value players\" and lose year after year.

Mike

[covelj70]

JB, thanks so much, very helpful, can\'t wait to see them on Thursday night

[TGJB]

Miff-- If you back through the ROTWs that I have written, take a look at how often I\'ve taken on those 800 pound gorillas at even money or less. To my knowledge-- and I could be wrong-- very, very few if any of those short priced horses I said were a bet-against have ever won ROTW (several have run second), and I\'ve been doing this a long time. That doesn\'t necessarily mean the ones I liked ran well-- but that I was right to take a position against the favorites. That\'s often why I pick the race.

[Michael D.]

Jim,

I estimate CD got a \'0\' in the Peter Pan, and, given all the JPY that hit the pool in that race, I\'ll be surprised if the colt goes off higher than 3-1 in the Belmont. if BB does bounce big, and struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD lower than 2-1.

[jimbo66]

Schoolteacher/Miff,

Should I be insulted that you call me a sucker?  I am not.

I don\'t borrow money and am not quite broke yet.  Stay tuned, I will be sure and email you my quarterly financial report once the wife approves all numbers....

As for Kool-Aid drinking, your metaphor is quite misplaced.  The Kool-Aid drinker would be the guy who plays \"follow the leader\" with the mainstream public.  That sir, would be you, at least in the case of Big Brown in this Triple Crown series with your new favorite trainer Richard Dutrow.  Big Brown, thanks to all the kool-aid drinkers will be $2.60 or lower on Preakness day.  For a man who wants to make \"zillions\" as you posted last week, you are going to have to cash a lot of $2.60 bets.

You may not agree with my decision to bet against Big Brown and go anti-mainstream, looking to cash 25-1 in the win pool and several thousand to one in the Superfecta pool, but it certainly doesn\'t make me a kool-aid drinker.  (for that matter, neither did my view on tale of ekati, as I don\'t remember too many supporters on this board for that selection).

The Proudly Self-Professed Value Bettor,

Jim

[jimbo66]

Michael,

You could be right.  If you are, then my bet will change, as 2-1 on Casino Drive is not value.

We will see.  i may hunt a bit now and see what futures bets I can get down now on Casino Drive, as I think there is a reasonable chance we don\'t even see Big Brown in the Belmont, in which case 8-5 might be the price on CD.

Jim

[miff]

Ok Jim,

I did not call you a sucker but this is the second time you insulted me. So put your money where your mouth is.Firstly, I\'ll bet you do NOT beat the game.Second, since you have an ax to grind with me, lets put up say $50k head to head over 100 races, you pick the races. Yes or no?


Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Contact me privately about your bet,if you are serious.  Neither my name or email address is hidden (yours are or I would contact you).    That doesn\'t need to be on this board, too personal.  

Re-read what you posted.  \"sucker\" \"broke\", \"sound familiar\", \"kool aid drinker\".  None of those seem insulting to you?

It is great that you love Big Brown and think the world of Dutrow.  God Bless.  You won round 1 in the Derby.  My posting here at the top of this thread was made to provoke some thought around betting strategies in the Preakness and Belmont.  You don\'t have to like my opinion, but I am certainly not a Kool-Aid drinker, which is insulting.

And \"yes\", you are correct in your first assertion.  I don\'t \"beat\" this game.  I work for a living.  If you are a professional and make a living at this game, god bless again.  Although, it doesn\'t mean I won\'t take your bet and your money.

Jim

[P-Dub]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
 if BB does bounce big, and
> struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD
> lower than 2-1.


I don\'t see it. If BB wins the Preakness, regardless of margin, he\'ll be odds on in the win pool at Belmont.  Assuming TOE and some other decent horses run theres no way CD will be 2-1,  I don\'t care how much Japanese money is on him.  Its one thing to bang down the price on Peter Pan Day, a whole different story when the pools on Belmont Day will dwarf the pools from last Saturday. He may be second choice, but I see him around 4-1 at the worst.

[miff]

Jim,

Again,I was not addressing you,but I do know tons of suckers as I described them.Being a good sport,I will let you take my $50k and will be in touch privately.

Mike