Preakness - Where are the opportunists?

[miff]

JB,

I believe that your 800lb gorilla may not always be mine.I swing hardest at short priced, not that fast/or over the top,reputation type horses. I don\'t mess with layover\'s with good spacing/patterns,heading west and in a favorable race shape scenarios.

You may know little Henry,he uses your stuff and we consult. He bets filtered 3-5 or 4-5 shots only for 10-20k a shot and has beat the game for 7 years running. He has been chased by the 3 of the largest bookmakers in NY.Not my cup of tea but there are certain 800 lb gorillas running that win at a very high percentage.


Mike

[covelj70]

JB, one situation I will for sure back you up on is last year at the Spa for the Forego when you did the live seminar.  

I owned a piece of the chalk in the Forego and you pretty much said that you showed up at the track that day to bet against him.

Even though you took all of the wind out of my sails about my horse potentially winning a G1, you saved me alot of money.  He was a great throw out bouncing off a huge prior effort.

[Michael D.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jim,
> >
>  if BB does bounce big, and
> > struggles to win the Preakness, I could see CD
> > lower than 2-1.
>
>
> I don\'t see it. If BB wins the Preakness,
> regardless of margin, he\'ll be odds on in the win
> pool at Belmont.  Assuming TOE and some other
> decent horses run theres no way CD will be 2-1,  I
> don\'t care how much Japanese money is on him.  Its
> one thing to bang down the price on Peter Pan Day,
> a whole different story when the pools on Belmont
> Day will dwarf the pools from last Saturday. He
> may be second choice, but I see him around 4-1 at
> the worst.


ToE\'s 25-1, maybe higher. what else? DoC 12-1? stop there, and BB wins the Preakness with a big bounce, and you\'re left with 8-5 on Casino Drive. I\'m more than willing to allocate $ to other runners, I just need to know who they are.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I am hoping we never see who is right, because Big Brown is out of the money in the Preakness and doesn\'t run in the Belmont.  However, I think you are off here.  I won\'t speak for P-Dub, but i am guessing that he agrees with me that Big Brown is 1-5 in the Belmont.  If so, there is no 8-5 in the race.  4-1 or 5-1 is second choice.

For your scenario to be right (CD at 8-5), you need Big Brown at 4-5 or so.  I don\'t see it, not even if he wins the Preakness by less than a length.  

But we will see in a few weeks.

[ajkreider]

I think I\'m posting on wrong board.

Where\'s the two dollar forum?

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo if he is regressing or appears to be on numbers there will not be lot of big betters going \"all in\" on BB in the Belmont. They will be turned off by his line and be looking elsewhere.

Also how many Triple Crown winners have we had in the last 25 years? Reason enough to play against BB right there.

It just almost never happens.

I can see 3-5 easily then with everyone else it gets into field size.

[fkach]

IMO the probability of Big Brown bouncing off his negative 4 1/2 is as high as it gets. Of course, as usual, I have an entirely different reason for thinking that than most people. ;-)

IMO....

His negative 3 1/2 in the Florida Derby was 100% legit. He was hard used to clear some rivals while wide on the first turn on a day that losing ground was a disadvantage and where speed was no significant advantage.

On the other hand, his negative 4 1/2 in the KY Derby is somewhat suspect. A lot of his fast figure comes from adjusting his final time for his very significant ground loss on both turns. However, if you watch all the races from CD that day, lots of horses made wide moves on the turn. As a group, they did not seem to be at a particularly large disadvantage from the ground loss. Some  held their ground well and others even rallied well on the turn. IMO, they were disadvantaged, but the disadvantage was not length for length. In addition, BB was going pretty easily while wide.

That\'s not such an unusual occurrence at CD. Races developments there often resemble those at Belmont a lot more than those at AQU on the Inner Dirt. LMAO

I\'m not saying the rail was dead at CD that day (IMO it wasn\'t). However, IMO either the outside paths were a little faster, the way the turns are banked at CD sometimes helps outside horses relative to inside horses in dealing with the turns, or some other factor sometimes makes losing ground less of a disadvantage than it usually is.

As far as I am concerned, Big Brown ran no faster in the Derby than he did in the Florida Derby and not much better other than proving he could relax, rate, and finish well at 10F against a deeper quality and much larger field.  

IMO \"WHEN\" he earns a slower figure in the Preakness, it could easily mean he\'s not a negative 4 1/2 horse right now to begin with, not that he bounced. A more realistic and legitimate bounce would see him finishing well beaten (if that should happen).  

IMO, he may have literally run a negative 4 1/2 in the KY Derby, but he didn\'t run a high quality negative 4 1/2. In \"real terms\" he probably ran a negative 2 or 3, which of course also gives him a slightly different pattern.

[fkach]

If BB wins the Preakness, a ton of money will be bet on him in the Belmont by unsophisticated players wanting to save a ticket on him if he wins the Triple  Crown. Others will just want to say they bet him. It happens every single time there is a two leg winner. It always leads to the two leg winner getting more money in the Belmont than justified by the fundamentals.

[Silver Charm]

What was Smarty in the Belmont?

[fkach]

I don\'t recall.

But I do recall laughing at some of the Belmont odds over the years when a horse won the first 2 legs. I am not predicting 1-5. I am predicting that whatever the fundamentals suggest, he will be shorter than that.

[jimbo66]

Silver Charm,

I think your Smarty example supports my 1-5 view.  smarty was 1-5 in the Belmont.  Close to 2-5, but nonetheless 1-5.  Second choice was 6.7 to 1 in the Belmnont and third choice 10-1.   Nowhere near the 8-5 that Michael is talking about.

You can also argue that Big Brown\'s derby was much more impressive than Smarty\'s.  He won by more and challengers were not scared away in the Preakness the same way that they are of Big Brown (Gayego MAY be the only starter from the Derby try him).

Casino Drive will be nowhere near 8-5 if Big Brown wins the Preakness.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

BB most certainly has to regress. But he\'s run so big on the numbers he can certainly bounce and win.

Tough race to project bounce is the play.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I am hoping we never see who is right, because Big
> Brown is out of the money in the Preakness and
> doesn\'t run in the Belmont.  However, I think you
> are off here.  I won\'t speak for P-Dub, but i am
> guessing that he agrees with me that Big Brown is
> 1-5 in the Belmont.  If so, there is no 8-5 in the
> race.  4-1 or 5-1 is second choice.
>
> For your scenario to be right (CD at 8-5), you
> need Big Brown at 4-5 or so.  I don\'t see it, not
> even if he wins the Preakness by less than a
> length.  
>
> But we will see in a few weeks.

[big18741]

Easier for me to project a long odds horse like Racecar Rhapsody into the exotics than it is to bounce Big Brown all the way out of the winners circle.

Made a big turn move off a long layoff on the deadest of rails at Turfway.Then he has stretch trouble in the Lexington.When he gets clear he finishes well and passes the winner on the gallop out.Ap Indy on the bottom should like the added distance.Dirt shouldn\'t be a problem going by his 2yo races.New top for sure in the Lexington but not too big.Maybe another one coming on Saturday.

[jbelfior]

Big:
 
RR just doesn\'t get involved early enough for my taste. Cannot recall a Triple Crown race in recent memory with so little interest from a wagering standpoint.

In a game where it pays more to be a contrarian, it appears that everyone will be doing the same thing...BROWNIE over several bombs. No thanks.

I\'ll root for him to romp, then hope Barclay Tagg enters Tale of Ekati in the Belmont.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

Joe B

I hear you.This field other than the chalk is awful and none of them show any finishing punch in routes.Racecar Rhapsody at least looks interested in going by horses.It\'s either a pass or 1/5 over a bomb for me.

The Belmont I\'m against both BB and Casino Drive.Give me Denis of Cork at 10-1 or >.