Preakness - Where are the opportunists?

[jbelfior]

Big:


Take a shot...play RR to win or at least on the back-end of doubles. If BB does a Fu-Peg or Monarchos, you stand to cash big time.


As for the Belmont Stakes, in DOC or TOE, at least you have 2 colts that have run in the zero area with the possibility of a return to that or slightly better for TOE.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[imallin]

Great post. Dead on.

My thought is that even if BB wasn\'t a bounce candidate, he\'s still a good bet against, just because he\'s 1-5 and the pools are so large. You only have to be right once to be able to buy a nice house for cash at the end of the day.

Barbaro was just as good as Big Brown going into the Preakness and he didn\'t hit the board. If a superstar like Barbaro can miss the superfecta in the Preakness, so can BB.

Bet a ton against him in the Preakness and if he wins, double the bet against him in the Belmont.

[Ill-bred]

If Big Brown wins the Preakness and no other super horse candidate emerges, I think Casino Drive will be about 7-to-2, give or take a point, in the Belmont.

Everyone I talk to in Kentucky is salivating over Casino Drive. His Peter Pan win was the talk of the industry. For those of you who think he is under the radar and you can get 6-to-1 or more, I don\'t see it. Current buzz indicates Casino Drive will be heavily bet in his next start.

[P-Dub]

imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My thought is that even if BB wasn\'t a bounce
> candidate, he\'s still a good bet against, just
> because he\'s 1-5 and the pools are so large. You
> only have to be right once to be able to buy a
> nice house for cash at the end of the day.
>
> Barbaro was just as good as Big Brown going into
> the Preakness and he didn\'t hit the board. If a
> superstar like Barbaro can miss the superfecta in
> the Preakness, so can BB.
>
> Bet a ton against him in the Preakness and if he
> wins, double the bet against him in the Belmont.


If you don\'t pick the right horse to \"bet a ton\", what good is it??  Just which horse do you bet??

[Flighted Iron]

LOL. I\'m still trying to figure out what a \"kool aid drinker\" is.Seriously.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

It doesn\'t have to be one horse, it can be a multi-horse box.  But if you look back in this thread, I think you can make a case for \"one horse\" as well.  Without seeing all the sheets yet, the two fastest horses besides Big Brown are Hey Byrn and Gayego.  Hey Byrn had a negative one in early February (roughly).  He has had 12-15 weeks since the big figure and is rested coming into this.  He will be 25-1 or so and is faster than anybody besides Big Brown, has tactical speed to get a good trip, and could be set for a return to his top.

The other one, IMO, could be Gayego.  Sheet purists might not like him coming back in two weeks, but he ran so little in the Derby, one could argue it was more like a tough workout, than a real race.  (not a great argument, which is why he is 2nd on my longshot list, not 1st).  He ran his \"0\" five weeks ago.  Another will good tactical speed, possibly enough speed to get a 1w/1w trip on the lead.  Figures 15-1 or so.  

But Big Byrn is very live here, at a very large price, IMHO.

[jimbo66]

Flighted Iron,

Kool-Aid drinker = Google \"Jim Jones and Guyana\".

[Flighted Iron]

Jim,

  Thanks.

[P-Dub]

Jimbo,
Did the multi horse box thing 2 weeks ago and got slapped.  I was among the geniuses that tossed BB.

Agree with Hey Byrn, think he might be shorter than 25-1. Looking forward to the numbers tomorrow.

[big18741]

13 post with Chuckie Lopez don\'t think so.

[smalltimer]

With the exception of Behind, Racecar, and Yankee Bravo, the Preakness has mostly dirt or partially proven on the dirt type runners.  Makes this one much easier to handicap than the Derby.  Granted, fewer horses, unknown qualities.
Has the makings of a good wagering race.
I can\'t wait for miff to tell us who to play.

[big18741]

Small

Yankee Bravo ran his best # on dirt in the Louisiana Derby if memory serves correct.

Going by Racecars 2yo form his two dirt races were as fast(at least on tg\'s)as his two at Keeneland.

Behindatthewire had the one dirt race that wasn\'t much.

[smalltimer]

Yankee Bravo has had 2 turf, 2 poly and 1 dirt, that\'s why I mentioned that.
Racecar 4 poly and 2 dirt.
Behind 4 artificial and 1 dirt that wasn\'t so good.
Good observation, I was just making a general statement as to the makeup of the field compared to all the unknowns shipping from Kee and Cal.
Go get \'em..

[imallin]

Yankee Bravo looked terrible on the gallop out in the SA derby. YB fan\'s might want to watch that again before plunging.

[sekrah]

Giant Moon ran right up with that hot pass in the Wood and kinda got squeezed off in the final 1/16th by Tale of Ekati and War Pass, missing by only a length or two. If he can run with those guys..... coming in on about 7 weeks rest..  I would have to think he may be a contender here.

Kentucky Bear is another one who has a legitimate chance at posting up a fast number Saturday.

Those two and Hey Byrn are my pool wreckers in the Preakness.