What if Big Brown moves FORWARD?

[Halo Fire]

What if this happens tomorrow?

Will all of the anti-BB players (myself included), look at this horse in a different light?

[sekrah]

100% Impossible considering the field he\'s against and knowing Dutrow has instructed Desormeaux to win as easy as possible.

[SoCalMan2]

It is hard to imagine the second place horse running a negative number.  Since BB would need to run a -5 to move forward, we are talking about him running something like 8 lengths faster than second place (all trips being equal).  Hard to imagine that he will either win by that much given Dutrow\'s comments or that he will get into 8 lengths of trouble in this race.

If he does somehow run a -5 or stronger, I think the bet against in the Belmont will be one of the greatest betting opportunities I have ever seen in my life.  The only way he does not massively bounce in the Belmont off a -5 in the Preakness is if he is another Man O War or Secretariat.  While he is obviously an extraordinary thoroughbred, he will need to prove to me he is a once in 50 years horse before I will bet that he is one.  If I lose the bet in the Belmont, the coast should be clear for the next 50 years give or take.

[SoCalMan2]

I do not want to sound like an anti-fan, but I still feel pretty strongly that Big Brown is going to be a superb bet against in the Belmont.  All the emotions that are flowing from how easy this race was and how he is so dominant is exactly the type of reasoning we sheet readers want people to be using to turn on the faucets into the Belmont betting pools.  

At the end of the day, the real question is going to be what kind of effort is he going to put out on Belmont day and what kind of efforts are his racemates going to put out.

There were a ton of people who thought BB was a bet against in the Derby (I did not).  If you felt he was no good in the Derby, then you must feel that the Belmont will be a far greater challenge.  No matter how you slice it, the Belmont is going to give him his sternest challenge to date without question.  Why would somebody bet against him when he is 5-2 and not bet against him when he is 1-20??  Simply does not make sense.

He is now making his 5th start of the campaign.  This is something that TGJB gave stats on in his derby analysis showing that young cranked up 3 yos noticeably start to wilt after their 4th start of the campaign.  

On top of that, his 4 race campaign has to be one of the most exacting campaigns ever.  

Remember also that the Belmont is a mile and a half -- that always adds an element of volatility.  

Also, the Belmont racing strip is far different than the CD or PIM racing strip.  I seem to recall years ago that a study had been done that showed Belmont runners as a group did far better if they had previously had a race over the Belmont strip versus those making their Big Sandy debut.  Maybe that study was wrong (or my recollection was wrong), but, if not, here we have Big Brown making his Big Sandy Debut.  This is an element that Casino Drive and Take of Ekati do not have to worry about.  

Also, I suspect Denis of Cork is going to be coming into this race with a superb pattern.  

I also suspect there will be other shooters coming...both making the pace/trip scenario complex, plus adding additional contenders into the mix.  Maybe even a Pyro or a Colonel John will show up.  


On top of all this, this race will feature the most lopsided odds every seen -- which is exactly what experienced and wise gamblers are supposed to be looking for.  A real case of the Odds must be Crazy.

To me, the Belmont is going to be win-win.  I am planning to make my largest bets ever against Big Brown. If he wins, at least I will be a witness to real history and, if I am going to go down big, this is exactly the way to go down.

[jbelfior]

SO Cal man:

No one has the turn of foot to go with him.

The only possible scenario is he tires so badly in the stretch that someone with the ability to have been close to him at the quarter pole reels him in late. Who,in this motley crew of 3yos, has that combo of pace and stamina?

Horses like PYRO, DOC, or ANAK NAKAL will probably be left with too much to do. COLONEL JOHN (by Tiznow) can\'t get 1 1/2 and should stay in California.


Is COASTAL or BIRDSTONE going??


Lots of Luck with your bet!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

How much courage are you going to display with this strategy? Will it be BJB out of the exotics entirely or will you just try to beat him out of the top spot?

My sense is that BJB ran somewhere in the neighborhood of a Negative 1 to Negative 2 in the Preakness with plenty in reserve looking push button to me. Which means that Macho Again was in the 1 range.

I don\'t think Big Brown got down on his belly. It looked effortless. I know there\'s no such thing, but the Preakness was clearly an easier race for him than either the Florida Derby or the Kentucky Derby. Did you see his post race energy and mannerisms? He didn\'t take a deep breath. The remainder of this crop is not much.

There\'s going after a vulnerable favorite, but there\'s also wishing, hoping and praying and spitting into a strong headwind.

I don\'t like the fact a mediocre horse like Denis of Cork is playing ambush. It actually repulses me, but for Cork at least it\'s not going to matter. I think Cork is now more lightly raced than BJB and has less foundation and is destined to snap something before the national audience.

Yes, I am predicting Denis of Cork\'s death on track. I said it first. When it happens you may anoint me.



SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I do not want to sound like an anti-fan, but I
> still feel pretty strongly that Big Brown is going
> to be a superb bet against in the Belmont.  All
> the emotions that are flowing from how easy this
> race was and how he is so dominant is exactly the
> type of reasoning we sheet readers want people to
> be using to turn on the faucets into the Belmont
> betting pools.  
>
> At the end of the day, the real question is going
> to be what kind of effort is he going to put out
> on Belmont day and what kind of efforts are his
> racemates going to put out.
>
> There were a ton of people who thought BB was a
> bet against in the Derby (I did not).  If you felt
> he was no good in the Derby, then you must feel
> that the Belmont will be a far greater challenge.
> No matter how you slice it, the Belmont is going
> to give him his sternest challenge to date without
> question.  Why would somebody bet against him when
> he is 5-2 and not bet against him when he is
> 1-20??  Simply does not make sense.
>
> He is now making his 5th start of the campaign.
> This is something that TGJB gave stats on in his
> derby analysis showing that young cranked up 3 yos
> noticeably start to wilt after their 4th start of
> the campaign.  
>
> On top of that, his 4 race campaign has to be one
> of the most exacting campaigns ever.  
>
> Remember also that the Belmont is a mile and a
> half -- that always adds an element of volatility.
>  
>
> Also, the Belmont racing strip is far different
> than the CD or PIM racing strip.  I seem to recall
> years ago that a study had been done that showed
> Belmont runners as a group did far better if they
> had previously had a race over the Belmont strip
> versus those making their Big Sandy debut.  Maybe
> that study was wrong (or my recollection was
> wrong), but, if not, here we have Big Brown making
> his Big Sandy Debut.  This is an element that
> Casino Drive and Take of Ekati do not have to
> worry about.  
>
> Also, I suspect Denis of Cork is going to be
> coming into this race with a superb pattern.  
>
> I also suspect there will be other shooters
> coming...both making the pace/trip scenario
> complex, plus adding additional contenders into
> the mix.  Maybe even a Pyro or a Colonel John will
> show up.  
>
>
> On top of all this, this race will feature the
> most lopsided odds every seen -- which is exactly
> what experienced and wise gamblers are supposed to
> be looking for.  A real case of the Odds must be
> Crazy.
>
> To me, the Belmont is going to be win-win.  I am
> planning to make my largest bets ever against Big
> Brown. If he wins, at least I will be a witness to
> real history and, if I am going to go down big,
> this is exactly the way to go down.

[SoCalMan2]

Two cliches to consider --

1) They all get beat.

2) That is why they run the races.

Given the ambient level of uncertainty and volatility of any event that relies on things as shifting as our sport, how can anybody say that BB\'s price in the Belmont is not going to be way overbet.  We dream of people putting big dollars at risk on poor propositions so that we can shoot at that.  Well, this is going to be the mother of all such opportunities.

Remember, I am a guy who was all on Big Brown in the Derby and I was very pleased with the results.  There are times to bet a favorite and there are times not to.  Of course, BB may well win the triple crown and I will lose my bet, but that will not mean it was not a good play.

In terms of the exact play, obviously I will need to see how everything comes out.  My fondest hope is that I am alive in Pick 4s into the Belmont with all in the race.  That way, i will not have tough decisions on the race itself.  If that does not pan out, I will probably do some form of win bet dutch and exacta plays.

[Rick B.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To me, the Belmont is going to be win-win.  I am
> planning to make my largest bets ever against Big
> Brown. If he wins, at least I will be a witness to
> real history and, if I am going to go down big,
> this is exactly the way to go down.

...and if BB loses, are you guaranteed a win, money-wise?
 
Are you THAT certain you will be on the right horse(s)?
 
Maybe a better question is: are you and the other few remaining anti-BB folks THAT desperate to beat Dutrow? Because this anti-BB stuff isn\'t about the horse anymore...unless you are blind or haven\'t actually watched his races.

[TGJB]

CTC-- I\'ll go you one better. If DOC breaks down during the Belmont, you can say whatever you want (barring expletives or slander) here for the following 30 days without fear of deletion. If he does not, you are barred until I cool off (which will take quite a while) for that post and the cumulative effect of many others, anointed one. You\'ll have to try to prop up that weak ego someplace else.

[P-Dub]

JB,
I hope you don\'t have air conditioning.  This is way overdue. Absolutely repulsive to most of us around here.

[SoCalMan2]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > To me, the Belmont is going to be win-win.  I
> am
> > planning to make my largest bets ever against
> Big
> > Brown. If he wins, at least I will be a witness
> to
> > real history and, if I am going to go down big,
> > this is exactly the way to go down.
>
> ...and if BB loses, are you guaranteed a win,
> money-wise?
>  
> Are you THAT certain you will be on the right
> horse(s)?
>  
> Maybe a better question is: are you and the other
> few remaining anti-BB folks THAT desperate to beat
> Dutrow? Because this anti-BB stuff isn\'t about the
> horse anymore...unless you are blind or haven\'t
> actually watched his races.

As posted above, I am hoping I will be live in Pick 4s into the Belmont with a Wheel All.  That would mean I could just relax and not worry.  Of course, if that scenario does not arise, I will need to be cautious because of course it would be terrible to be right about Big Brown and wrong about who beats him.  For example, I went big against War Emblem but did not have Sarava.

I do not know what makes you think I am desperate to beat Dutrow. I have no qualms with Dutrow -- in fact, I think he is a pretty good trainer and one has to be very careful throwing out one of his well meant horses.  I also have no qualms with the horse -- I made an extremely large bet singling him in the first position in the Derby and cashed some very nice tickets (my second best score ever -- best if you do not count the time I mis-read the program numbers).  I was on the record here in multiple pre-race posts that he was too strong in the Derby to go against.  So, I do not think a regular reader of this board could contend that I have an anti-BB prejudice.  

I happen to have relatively normal vision and have watched his races.  However, I have also lived long enough to know that a lot can happen to a horse in 3 weeks and that horses I have seen win with speed to spare can struggle next out.  I have also seen some very tough 1-10 shots go down in flames too. It happens and to simply say the horse is too good ignores that this is a sport with a certain amount of volatility to it. Secretariat, Man O War, Seattle Slew, Citation, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Native Dancer and lots of other great ones have been beaten in important races.  Sometimes it was very shocking to their backers and could not have been foreseen with the ease of their prior victories.  

I just note certain salient facts for people with an open mind -- the horse was trained into the Derby exactly as the trainer wanted the horse to be trained with a long range plan. he was relatively fresh, with nice spacing and coming off a top that was not necessarily a knock out top. The horse is coming into the Belmont in a way that the trainer admits he would never do if it was his choice -- he will be running his third race in a 5 week span with one of those races being the toughest effort ever by a horse in the Derby and a Preakness which, while it may have been easy for him, was still an effort that would win a normal Preakness.  No matter how easy his Preakness effort looked, it had to take something out of him, and the cumulative effect of the FLA Derby, KY Derby, and Preakness have to have an effect also.  Spectacular Bid and Smarty Jones are very similar cases to Big Brown,  Spectacular Bid went on to have a career that showed his Belmont was an unfortunately fluke -- but unfortunate flukes do happen.  We do not know how good Smarty Jones may have been but he was beat too (and in his Belmont he walloped the rest of the field -- if there was no Birdstone, he would have been a cake walk Triple Crown wearer).

Listen, I like Big Brown.  If he wins the Triple Crown, I am not going to begrudge him his greatness.  However, this is horseracing and they run the races for a reason.  We have all looked at enough sheets to know that horses do not run the same figure race in and race out.  They have good efforts and off efforts -- it happens.

I still contend it will be win - win.  Either I will cash a lot, or I will lose but at least be able to savor that I was beaten by a horse that put the sport I love back on the map.